Results from December 31st 2012 prediction thread…

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    Posted: 19 January 2012 12:43 AM

    Capablanca   $405.00
    Mstefa       $499.00
    Incorrigible   $509.50
    Tantoday     $516.00
    Lovemyipad   $520.00
    Afterglow     $525.00
    Mav         $540.00
    Macorange     $540.00
    RedShirtedEnsign $544.00
    JohnG       $550.00
    Burgess     $567.00
    JJJZ       $584.00
    Omacvi       $625.00
    Gregg Thurman $685.00
    McharlieM     $710.00
    2 Cents     $770.00
     
    Average   $568.09

    [ Edited: 19 January 2012 04:25 PM by Burgess ]

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    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 19 January 2012 01:23 AM #1

    Eight below me, seven above and my guess within two bucks of the average…

    Mr. median here.

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 19 January 2012 02:27 AM #2

    Honestly, it wouldn’t be at all out of the question to see a number in the 600s.  Just that a lot of things need to fall into place, major among them a shift in investment attitudes towards AAPL.

    For now, I’ll plan for $540 and revise as the situation requires.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 19 January 2012 03:40 AM #3

    Red Shirted Ensign - 19 January 2012 05:23 AM

    Eight below me, seven above and my guess within two bucks of the average…

    Mr. median here.

    Isn’t that like kissing your aunt?  :bugeyed:

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    Posted: 19 January 2012 09:20 AM #4

    adamthompson3232 - 19 January 2012 07:40 AM
    Burgess - 19 January 2012 04:43 AM

    Tantoday       $172.00
    Capablanca   $405.00
    Mstefa       $499.00
    Incorrigible   $509.50
    Lovemyipad   $520.00
    Afterglow       $525.00
    Mav       $540.00
    Macorange       $540.00
    RedShirtedEnsign $544.00
    JohnG       $550.00
    Burgess       $567.00
    JJJZ       $584.00
    Omacvi       $625.00
    Gregg Thurman $685.00
    McharlieM       $710.00
    2 Cents       $770.00
     
    Average   $546.59

    Is that typo from TanToday or is he drunk on some really good stuff or does he think the macro sky is falling or all of the above?

    ACTUALLY, Tan’s real prediction was $172 X 3 = $516. I was modeling a 3 for 1 stock split. That was divulged inside the post, but got missed here in the “aggregated pick-up”

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  • Posted: 19 January 2012 10:47 AM #5

    Just for the record I would like to note that my price target of $770 is a conservative estimate. It is based on $55 earnings times 14 P/E.

    The $55 earnings is probably low. Blow-out earnings next Tuesday will be followed by the iPad 3 and elevated iPad sales for the full year as it moves into the mainstream. This will be followed by the monstrous iPhone 5, bigger even than the 4S. This alone will get us to $55. Add to that things like a possible China Mobile launch (another monster), a possible product-that-we-won?t-talk-about (iPhone Lite), a possible Apple TV for Christmas, and any other upwards surprises that Apple has cooking, and who knows how high those earnings go.

    The P/E is a tough call. I estimate somewhere between 11 and 17 depending on the macro environment, so I chose 14 as a midpoint (it is 15.5 right now). I like their large cash position, but note that what would really solidify the P/E is a dividend (probably 50/50 based on Tim Cook?s comments).

    So $55 x 14 = $770, with considerable upside.

    Sorry to be such a downer.

    [ Edited: 19 January 2012 11:30 AM by 2 Cents ]      
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    Posted: 19 January 2012 04:26 PM #6

    TanToday - 19 January 2012 01:20 PM
    adamthompson3232 - 19 January 2012 07:40 AM
    Burgess - 19 January 2012 04:43 AM

    Tantoday       $172.00
    Capablanca   $405.00
    Mstefa       $499.00
    Incorrigible   $509.50
    Lovemyipad   $520.00
    Afterglow       $525.00
    Mav       $540.00
    Macorange       $540.00
    RedShirtedEnsign $544.00
    JohnG       $550.00
    Burgess       $567.00
    JJJZ       $584.00
    Omacvi       $625.00
    Gregg Thurman $685.00
    McharlieM       $710.00
    2 Cents       $770.00
     
    Average   $546.59

    Is that typo from TanToday or is he drunk on some really good stuff or does he think the macro sky is falling or all of the above?

    ACTUALLY, Tan’s real prediction was $172 X 3 = $516. I was modeling a 3 for 1 stock split. That was divulged inside the post, but got missed here in the “aggregated pick-up”

    Have corrected on the original post - makes that average a bit higher too…

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    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 04 July 2012 08:29 PM #7

    Burgess - 19 January 2012 04:43 AM

    Capablanca   $405.00
    Mstefa       $499.00
    Incorrigible   $509.50
    Tantoday     $516.00
    Lovemyipad   $520.00
    Afterglow     $525.00
    Mav         $540.00
    Macorange     $540.00
    RedShirtedEnsign $544.00
    JohnG       $550.00
    Burgess     $567.00
    JJJZ       $584.00
    Omacvi       $625.00
    Gregg Thurman $685.00
    McharlieM     $710.00
    2 Cents     $770.00
     
    Average   $568.09

    6 months on - thought it was worth having a look back.

    Definitely puts things in perspective doesn’t it?

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    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
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    Posted: 04 July 2012 11:01 PM #8

    Mav - 19 January 2012 06:27 AM

    Honestly, it wouldn’t be at all out of the question to see a number in the 600s.  Just that a lot of things need to fall into place, major among them a shift in investment attitudes towards AAPL.

    For now, I’ll plan for $540 and revise as the situation requires.

    *ahem*  I did say this, btw.

    Current target price for around end of December…700 is in play, at least.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 04 July 2012 11:16 PM #9

    Mav - 05 July 2012 02:01 AM
    Mav - 19 January 2012 06:27 AM

    Honestly, it wouldn’t be at all out of the question to see a number in the 600s.  Just that a lot of things need to fall into place, major among them a shift in investment attitudes towards AAPL.

    For now, I’ll plan for $540 and revise as the situation requires.

    *ahem*  I did say this, btw.

    Current target price for around end of December…700 is in play, at least.

    $700? Is in play? I don’t think so. I believe more strongly than ever before that by the end of the calendar year $900 is the target. I usually predict for late January 2013 because of the fact we will see $23+ EPS for the quarter but now that we really might have iPad mini and Apple TV for the quarter I am thinking $900 may come even sooner. It sounds a bit crazy but the catalysts here are insanely huge…and numerous.

         
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    Posted: 04 July 2012 11:22 PM #10

    Your typical self, AT.

    $700 has to be in play if $900 is as well.

    I’d love to see, but I’m not planning for, a multiple of over 18, even over 16, by December.  Even if you cranked up EPS estimates for the rest of the fiscal year pretty aggressively, that’s an EPS of around $52-53 (doubt the new iPhone or other product will arrive in time to make a big difference in fiscal Q4).  We would need a near “euphoric” sentiment state like we had shortly before April earnings.  We’d also need evidence of an unbelievable iPhone worldwide launch, and new iPhone sales of 7 million plus in the first weekend.

    My guess is the fireworks will have to wait a bit until early January / Fiscal Q1 2013 earnings.

    [ Edited: 04 July 2012 11:25 PM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 04 July 2012 11:30 PM #11

    Mav - 05 July 2012 02:22 AM

    Your typical self, AT.

    $700 has to be in play if $900 is as well.

    I’d love to see, but I’m not planning for, a multiple of over 18, even over 16, by December.  Even if you cranked up EPS estimates for the rest of the fiscal year pretty aggressively, that’s an EPS of around $52-53 (doubt the new iPhone or other product will arrive in time to make a big difference in fiscal Q4).  We would need a near “euphoric” sentiment state like we had shortly before April earnings.  We’d also need evidence of an unbelievable iPhone worldwide launch, and new iPhone sales of 7 million plus in the first weekend.

    My guess is the fireworks will have to wait a bit until early January / Fiscal Q1 2013 earnings.

    I’ll admit you could be right about having to wait until late January. However, Apple always outdoes itself on launch weekends by a significant margin. What was the last opening weekend iPhone number? 4 million? I can’t remember. If it was 4, I think we’ll get at least 7 this go round. That will move the sales needle, EPS needle, and stock needle quite a bit.

         
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    Posted: 05 July 2012 12:11 AM #12

    So, a lot of pessimistic people smile

    [ Edited: 05 July 2012 12:13 AM by stkstalker ]

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  • Posted: 05 July 2012 12:18 AM #13

    I’ll be happy to finish in 2nd.

         
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    Posted: 05 July 2012 12:20 AM #14

    stkstalker - 05 July 2012 03:11 AM

    So, a lot of pessimistic people smile

    Just goin’ with what the market gives me…

    I’ve long held that AAPL deserves a 25 multiple right now.  But that’s not the macro and FUD environment we trade in right now.  That’s just how it is.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 05 July 2012 02:26 AM #15

    One thing to keep in mind (and which I’ve learned from a few sources) is to have a wildly optimistic upside hedge.  With AAPL, this is particularly important.  Yes, you should be very conservative, not put all your portfolio on that, etc.  However, if you give yourself enough time, a small position in OTM bullish spreads could turn into a home run. 

    Right now, I have 90% in JAN13s, 8% in JUL12s and 2% in JAN14 960/950s.  I sold those for $9.10 each, so that’s a 11x assuming AAPL is over $960 in 18 months.  Definitely risky, but given the current projections, growing cash hoard, and AAPL’s dominance in more and more markets, the stock would be trading at a very low P/E if it’s anything lower than $1,200 by then.  So, in this case, 960/950 is possibly a bit conservative. 

    I can see that position growing to an absolute maximum of 8-10% of my portfolio over the next few months.  If it works out, that 10% in 18 months will grow to the size of my current portfolio, which is mind boggling.  If it doesn’t work, well, I’m down 10% over the next 18 months, but the other 90% of the portfolio should counter that loss very easily.