Android Activation Disconnect

  • Posted: 20 January 2012 03:45 PM

    Forbes has an article that may explain how Google is able to proclaim huge activation numbers, while their better known “partners” aren’t selling that many.  It isn’t particularly good news for Google, or its “name partners”.

    http://tinyurl.com/Activation-Disconnect

    I would be looking for a massive shakeout in the handset market in the next 12 months.

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  • Posted: 20 January 2012 04:40 PM #1

    Gregg Thurman - 20 January 2012 07:45 PM

    Forbes has an article that may explain how Google is able to proclaim huge activation numbers, while their better known “partners” aren’t selling that many.  It isn’t particularly good news for Google, or its “name partners”.

    http://tinyurl.com/Activation-Disconnect

    I would be looking for a massive shakeout in the handset market in the next 12 months.

    This is not good news for iPhone sales too.

         
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    Posted: 20 January 2012 05:07 PM #2

    How so?  Competition is and always has been everywhere.  Apple’s ASPs?  Have not budged.

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  • Posted: 20 January 2012 05:25 PM #3

    Mav - 20 January 2012 09:07 PM

    How so?  Competition is and always has been everywhere.  Apple’s ASPs?  Have not budged.

    I agree Mav.  Apple has never competed on price.  To the contrary, Apple improves its products in order to protect its pricing.

    This article may suggest one way that Apple could do that in the future.

    http://tinyurl.com/4-Inch-Screen-Rumor

    Considering the resources available to Apple (exclusively and not) I think this may be doable.

    Case.  Apple has a paid up license to use liquid metal in consumer electronics.  Liquid metal is stronger than aluminum, weighs less, and is far less expensive than titanium.

    Battery.  Apple holds patents for a handheld fuel cell that utilizes liquid metal as its housing.  The fuel cell is lighter and thinner than current battery technology, yet will power devices for much, much longer (days?) between charges.

    Glass.  Corning announced Gorilla Glass II at CES.  Gorilla Glass II is 20X to 30X stronger than the original Gorilla Glass, and is thinner and lighter.  Apple was the first manufacturer to use Gorilla Glass.  It was developed in the ‘60s, then shelved when Corning couldn’t find a use for it.

    An iPhone with a 4” screen would be about 0.25” X 0.50” wider and longer, this may be required to house the A6 processor.  The slightly larger case may also make it possible to include a larger, more sensitive antenna.  Considering the above, and that next gen LTE chip sets would reduce size requirements, it may actually be thinner and lighter than the 4S.

    Would I buy one?  In a heart beat.

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  • Posted: 20 January 2012 05:30 PM #4

    Mav - 20 January 2012 09:07 PM

    How so?  Competition is and always has been everywhere.  Apple’s ASPs?  Have not budged.

    I believe and know a lot of folks are price sensitive and will make buying decisions based on cost and similar features.

         
  • Posted: 20 January 2012 05:47 PM #5

    alice - 20 January 2012 09:30 PM
    Mav - 20 January 2012 09:07 PM

    How so?  Competition is and always has been everywhere.  Apple’s ASPs?  Have not budged.

    I believe and know a lot of folks are price sensitive and will make buying decisions based on cost and similar features.

    The market for handsets is > 1,350,000,000 each year.  Of that number, the percent that are smartphones is growing faster than the overall market.  I think smart phones now account for 40% of all handsets sold.  It was barely 15% in 2007.

    How much of that 40% does Apple need to get (with half of all handset profits) to be wildly successful?  By the end of calendar 2012 it is estimated that Apple will have a 30% share (about 170,000,000 units).

    On the other hand, HTC, Motorola, RIMM, Nokia, Sony/Ericcson and Samsung are fighting for share in that portion of the market (87%) that generates less than 1/2 of all handset profits.  Now enters two third tier, no name brands, ZTE and Huawei, that are undercutting the Android manufacturers on price, and growing rapidly, taking away what little oxygen the second tier players had.

    Apple doesn’t want any part of this market.  It’s a race to the bottom, just as Dell has found, and Packard Bell/NEC, ATT, Olivetti, IBM, Compaq, Tandy, Singer and several others before them.

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    Posted: 20 January 2012 06:01 PM #6

    alice, note that Apple is selling $1200+ ASP computers many years past the advent of the computer, and many years past the ASP for all PCs dropped far below that level.

    See also:  the auto industry.  Commoditization/race to the bottom doesn’t always happen at all market segments.

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  • Posted: 20 January 2012 06:05 PM #7

    Gregg Thurman - 20 January 2012 09:47 PM
    alice - 20 January 2012 09:30 PM
    Mav - 20 January 2012 09:07 PM

    How so?  Competition is and always has been everywhere.  Apple’s ASPs?  Have not budged.

    I believe and know a lot of folks are price sensitive and will make buying decisions based on cost and similar features.

    The market for handsets is > 1,350,000,000 each year.  Of that number, the percent that are smartphones is growing faster than the overall market.  I think smart phones now account for 40% of all handsets sold.  It was barely 15% in 2007.

    How much of that 40% does Apple need to get (with half of all handset profits) to be wildly successful?  By the end of calendar 2012 it is estimated that Apple will have a 30% share (about 170,000,000 units).

    On the other hand, HTC, Motorola, RIMM, Nokia, Sony/Ericcson and Samsung are fighting for share in that portion of the market (87%) that generates less than 1/2 of all handset profits.  Now enters two third tier, no name brands, ZTE and Huawei, that are undercutting the Android manufacturers on price, and growing rapidly, taking away what little oxygen the second tier players had.

    Apple doesn’t want any part of this market.  It’s a race to the bottom, just as Dell has found, and Packard Bell/NEC, ATT, Olivetti, IBM, Compaq, Tandy, Singer and several others before them.

    I no sooner post the above, when I find this:

    http://tinyurl.com/Apple-Redesigns-Battery

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    Posted: 20 January 2012 07:30 PM #8

    Gregg Thurman - 20 January 2012 07:45 PM

    Forbes has an article that may explain how Google is able to proclaim huge activation numbers, while their better known “partners” aren’t selling that many.  It isn’t particularly good news for Google, or its “name partners”.

    http://tinyurl.com/Activation-Disconnect

    I would be looking for a massive shakeout in the handset market in the next 12 months.

    Thats a great article.

    I can see the same situation already happening here in New Zealand & Australia. (Huawei is already the 2nd biggest handset vendor behind samsung in NZ. Apple third).

    I think possibly that the USA is the only territory where the chinese might have a problem, due to the fact that in the US there is little benefit in buying a cheap prepaid handset, when the expensive data plans are still required (so you might as well get a higher price handset subsidized by that data plan).

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    Posted: 20 January 2012 09:00 PM #9

    I think this article points to several key issues which affect the purchase of Mobile Phones and materially affect local markets.  The US is typical of a subsidized handset market with multi-year contracts.  In these markets handsets are relatively cheap compared to the service plan.  Apple offers handsets at 0-800 depending on plan and does well.  So the white box makers have little room for out pricing.  The other major market is the prepaid, bring your own handset.  Unlocked iPhone handsets start at about 350-1000 so their is still room for price competition at the low end of the smartphone market which is the feature phone replacement phone.  Apple must convince customers that data plans provide value and once you buy a data plan then the iPhone is the best data device.  I doubt Apple will ever be the low price producer so they must convince the consumer that they provide the best value.  Satisfaction surveys seem to indicate that consumers who purchase Apple product feel they got good value and customer loyalty remains extremely high, so value vs price becomes the key differentiator.  a percentage of the market will always assume that price is the value, and Apple will not compete for that segment.  the question becomes can they get the fence sitter who is willing to pay $200 for a handset to upgrade to a $400 Apple iPhone.

         
  • Posted: 21 January 2012 08:18 AM #10

    Gregg Thurman - 20 January 2012 10:05 PM
    Gregg Thurman - 20 January 2012 09:47 PM
    alice - 20 January 2012 09:30 PM
    Mav - 20 January 2012 09:07 PM

    How so?  Competition is and always has been everywhere.  Apple’s ASPs?  Have not budged.

    I believe and know a lot of folks are price sensitive and will make buying decisions based on cost and similar features.

    The market for handsets is > 1,350,000,000 each year.  Of that number, the percent that are smartphones is growing faster than the overall market.  I think smart phones now account for 40% of all handsets sold.  It was barely 15% in 2007.

    How much of that 40% does Apple need to get (with half of all handset profits) to be wildly successful?  By the end of calendar 2012 it is estimated that Apple will have a 30% share (about 170,000,000 units).

    On the other hand, HTC, Motorola, RIMM, Nokia, Sony/Ericcson and Samsung are fighting for share in that portion of the market (87%) that generates less than 1/2 of all handset profits.  Now enters two third tier, no name brands, ZTE and Huawei, that are undercutting the Android manufacturers on price, and growing rapidly, taking away what little oxygen the second tier players had.

    Apple doesn’t want any part of this market.  It’s a race to the bottom, just as Dell has found, and Packard Bell/NEC, ATT, Olivetti, IBM, Compaq, Tandy, Singer and several others before them.

    I no sooner post the above, when I find this:

    http://tinyurl.com/Apple-Redesigns-Battery

    Did you mean this?