Tablet ownership nearly doubles in US in December

  • Posted: 23 January 2012 09:34 AM

    Any of you guys with earnings models care to comment on the potential impact?  Too bad Kindles were not broken out, as it may have driven a lot of this change.

    Tablet Ownership Survey

    [ Edited: 23 January 2012 09:38 AM by Lstream ]      
  • Posted: 23 January 2012 10:31 AM #1

    Lstream - 23 January 2012 01:34 PM

    Any of you guys with earnings models care to comment on the potential impact?  Too bad Kindles were not broken out, as it may have driven a lot of this change.

    Tablet Ownership Survey

    The data is too vague to draw any specific conclusions other than Christmas shopping this year was very good.

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    Posted: 23 January 2012 10:54 AM #2

    The raw data is a positive IMO, YOY growth is robust.  One of the questions in my mind still outstanding is, Are tablets going to suffer the same fate as netbooks.  Until this Christmas, the iPad was the tablet market.  Apple continues to capture key verticals beyond consumer with the iPad and their recent textbook initiative could pave the way for broad adoption in education.  I would hesitate to try and correlate PEW’s tablet growth rate to an iPad number because we don’t know what they are including in the category.  The kindle fire is new to the market so it is growing from zero which makes analysis tricky.  I will wait for more data points.  In my circle of friends the iPad did well this Christmas.

         
  • Posted: 23 January 2012 11:02 AM #3

    pats - 23 January 2012 02:54 PM

    The raw data is a positive IMO, YOY growth is robust.  One of the questions in my mind still outstanding is, Are tablets going to suffer the same fate as netbooks.  Until this Christmas, the iPad was the tablet market.  Apple continues to capture key verticals beyond consumer with the iPad and their recent textbook initiative could pave the way for broad adoption in education.  I would hesitate to try and correlate PEW’s tablet growth rate to an iPad number because we don’t know what they are including in the category.  The kindle fire is new to the market so it is growing from zero which makes analysis tricky.  I will wait for more data points.  In my circle of friends the iPad did well this Christmas.

    I’m not so sure that net sales of a particular product will remain the same by the end of January.

    The reason I say this is because, over the weekend, I read that over 20% of Kindle gift receivers had not turned them on a week after Christmas.  That compares to 9% of iPad gift receivers.  How many of those Kindle’s are going to be traded in for an iPad?

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  • Posted: 23 January 2012 02:26 PM #4

    The significance of this report is that the U.S. INSTALLED market for tablets (CUMULATIVE sales since launch of all tablets) nearly doubled from one month to the next (although margin of error suggests change could be as little as 50-70 percent).

    That means huge U.S. iPad sales in December, even if iPad was dented a bit by Amazon and B&N.

    Does anyone have an estimate for total iPad units sold in the U.S. through FQ4 2011?

         
  • Posted: 23 January 2012 06:20 PM #5

    Suggests a landslide quarter for the iPad… followed by the iPad 3 and God-I-hope a $399 iPad 2… and then this textbook stuff… they could have a viable business here.

         
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    Posted: 23 January 2012 06:28 PM #6

    Pretty sure they’ll keep the iPad 2 around for another year.  It’ll make good use of those A5s, which will be around for some time anyway when the iPhone 4S gets supplanted by the iPhone 5 sometime down the road.

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    Posted: 23 January 2012 06:31 PM #7

    I would be more interested in worldwide data - where the kindle fire is not sold.

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  • Posted: 23 January 2012 06:33 PM #8

    pats - 23 January 2012 02:54 PM

    Are tablets going to suffer the same fate as netbooks.  Until this Christmas, the iPad was the tablet market.

    I don’t think that tablets are heading down the path of netbooks for the following reasons:

    1. The Netbook was/is essentially a downgraded experience of what you can already do on more traditionally priced PC’s.  They offered nothing new, unless you count a crappier experience than the old one as something new.

    2. Tablets (at least as embodied in the iPad) do offer something entirely new that is not available on any other platform alternative.  Stuff like battery life, instant-on, tablet-only apps, form-factor convenience, and multitouch to name a few.  The consumer cannot find a substitute device that offers all these advantages.

    3. Tablets have changed user behaviour.  Both anecdotal and more broadly based evidence show the attractiveness of the mobility and user-appeal of the tablet paradigm.  This means that millions of users only use their PC’s and notebooks when they need to.  There is no fall-back or substitute product that offers the same benefit.  Once it becomes embedded in your daily usage there is no going back.

    I think these and other factors, mean that the tablet has indeed emerged as its own product category.  It is not a dumbed, down cheaper version of a notebook like the netbook.  Therefore, I don’t think tablets will suffer the same fate as the netbook.

         
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    Posted: 23 January 2012 07:07 PM #9

    pats - the “sarcastic” answer is that tablets may suffer the same fate as a netbook - but the iPad should be just fine. wink

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  • Posted: 23 January 2012 07:46 PM #10

    It is one more in a series of indicators that increase my comfort level about the quarter.

    Nonetheless, I closed some Feb. $420 calls near the close and will be looking to perhaps lighten up a bit more tomorrow, but I was pretty much all in, and still am, it was a small February position.

         
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    Posted: 23 January 2012 08:55 PM #11

    Browser stats that I’m seeing in a site I monitor saw a big increase for the iPhones and iPads after Xmas.

    Stats comparison from Dec/Jan to Nov./Dec.

    In these stats, the prior month iPads and iPhones were down between Oct and Nov.

         
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    Posted: 23 January 2012 10:02 PM #12

    PurpleApple - 23 January 2012 06:26 PM

    Does anyone have an estimate for total iPad units sold in the U.S. through FQ4 2011?

    Approx. 39.9 million IPads were sold world-wide through end of 4Q11.  This information was taken from the earnings calls, which do not break down US vs. ROW.

         
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    Posted: 23 January 2012 10:05 PM #13

    rutgers, the data asked was in the US, not the entire world.  Honestly, who knows?

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  • Posted: 24 January 2012 12:14 AM #14

    I’ve been playing around with the Pew numbers. The key question for CQ4 is how many Kindle Fire devices were sold, and how much B&N’s tablet got some traction. Using the biggest margin of error for the Pew survey (for both before and after data points) and a relatively large number of non-iPad tablet sales (mostly Fires) for CQ4, I can get to a global iPad number as small as 17MM. But it feels like there is support for more, looking at the various potential ranges and assumptions.

    If the Pew study is severely flawed in some way, all bets are off. If its reported margin of error is accurate, the iPad numbers should look pretty good.

         
  • Posted: 14 August 2012 10:51 AM #15

    So the latest tally of tablets shipped last quarter ....

    Ipad 17MM

    Galaxy 2.3MM (of which 1MM went to people thinking they were buying an ipad, sorry couldn’t resist)

    Kindle Fire 1MM

    Gee, what happened to all that “ipad killer” stuff from December?