AAPL Intraday Updates - Earnings Day Edition (Archive)

  • Posted: 24 January 2012 01:43 AM

    Apple recovered in Monday trading to close up $7.11 at $427.41. Will the rally continue in pre-earnings trading on Tuesday?

    [ Edited: 24 January 2012 05:04 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 24 January 2012 01:47 AM #1

    One of four of the most exciting and/or terrifying days of the year, for those who dare! LOL

    I say the breakout stops tomorrow.  Flat to mildly up depending on the market.  If AAPL hits 430, I’ll do a final reshuffling of risk, maybe one smaller earnings bet and then hang on for dear life.

    If AAPL hits 435, I won’t have any weekly bull call spreads in play.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 January 2012 01:54 AM #2

    I don’t know if we will hit 435, but we closed strongly enough to keep the momentum positive.

    JC is wrong about taking profits.  Good numbers will make the stock go up and those selling will be left thinking they should not have listened to him.  If we correct our p/e would drop to under 13.  I see a correction only after we move up at least 6%.

         
  • Posted: 24 January 2012 01:54 AM #3

    Tuesday

    R4       444.50
      midpoint   441.43
    R3       438.35
      midpoint   435.28
    R2       432.20
      midpoint   431.01
    R1       429.81
      midpoint   427.93
    PP       426.05
      midpoint   424.86
    S1       423.66
      midpoint   421.78
    S2       419.90
      midpoint   416.83
    S3       413.75
      midpoint   410.68
    S4       407.60

         
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    Posted: 24 January 2012 01:59 AM #4

    One thing seems close to certain for me:  Apple valuation will further compress even with a massive upside surprise.

    By my estimates, ttm EPS will go up a gigantic 18% in a single quarter, even accounting for a little share creep.  I doubt AAPL would ever jump anywhere near that much immediately after earnings.

    Oh, and to repost what I said in the previous Intraday thread about Cramer:  As someone who once thought Cramer got Apple, because he actually did for a run recently, trust me, he does NOT.  His going hot and cold on the stock is just a part of the circus act that is Mad Money.  AAPL should increase ttm EPS by way over 15%, and Cramer conveniently fails to mention that AAPL is up less than a buck from its October intraday high.  He is simply, not, credible.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 January 2012 02:05 AM #5

    Mav - 24 January 2012 05:59 AM

    One thing seems close to certain for me:  Apple valuation will further compress even with a massive upside surprise.

    By my estimates, ttm EPS will go up a gigantic 18% in a single quarter, even accounting for a little share creep.  I doubt AAPL would ever jump anywhere near that much immediately after earnings.

    Oh, and to repost what I said in the previous Intraday thread about Cramer:  As someone who once thought Cramer got Apple, because he actually did for a run recently, trust me, he does NOT.  His going hot and cold on the stock is just a part of the circus act that is Mad Money.  AAPL should increase ttm EPS by way over 15%, and Cramer conveniently fails to mention that AAPL is up less than a buck from its October intraday high.  He is simply, not, credible.

    Excellent summary Mav.

         
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    Posted: 24 January 2012 02:15 AM #6

    I should also mention that under the guidance case scenario (Oppenheimer’s own Sandbag Deluxe? Guidance, people!), ttm EPS goes to $30.55, an increase of about 10.3%.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 January 2012 02:37 AM #7

    Mav - 24 January 2012 05:59 AM

    One thing seems close to certain for me:  Apple valuation will further compress even with a massive upside surprise.

    By my estimates, ttm EPS will go up a gigantic 18% in a single quarter, even accounting for a little share creep.  I doubt AAPL would ever jump anywhere near that much immediately after earnings.

    Oh, and to repost what I said in the previous Intraday thread about Cramer:  As someone who once thought Cramer got Apple, because he actually did for a run recently, trust me, he does NOT.  His going hot and cold on the stock is just a part of the circus act that is Mad Money.  AAPL should increase ttm EPS by way over 15%, and Cramer conveniently fails to mention that AAPL is up less than a buck from its October intraday high.  He is simply, not, credible.

    Did Cramer say to sell?

    NEW YORK (TheStreet)—“The most important earnings report is 2012 is upon us tomorrow,” Jim Cramer announced to his “Mad Money” TV show viewers on Monday, as he explained what investors should do as Apple (AAPL_), a stock which Cramer owns for his charitable trust, Action Alerts PLUS, reports its earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday.

    Cramer said that Apple is a special company. Besides being the second most highly valued company in the U.S., Cramer said it’s also one of the few that can set the tone for the entire market. That’s why he enlisted the help of colleague Mark Sebastian for a special “Off The Charts” segment on how to play Apple’s earnings.

    According to Sebastian, the way to play Apple’s earnings is to sell before it reports. He noted that twice in 2010 and multiple times in 2011, Apple shares have run up ahead of the quarter, only to sell of and sell off big thereafter. Sebastian said investors must sell ahead of the news or risk shares slipping back to pre-quarter levels.

    But Cramer said his opinion differs with Sebastian. He said the stock can, and probably will, sell off Tuesday, and the day-traders among us should probably take profits and get back in at lower levels. But for the rest of the home-gamers, Cramer said the risk is that there is a blow-out quarter and shares don’t retreat, or the retreat is so short-lived that investors can’t’ get back in in time.

    Cramer said there’s no doubt that Apple had a great quarter, and little doubt that their positive momentum won’t continue. The stock is still dirt-cheap, he said, trading at just 12 times earnings despite an 18% growth rate. Cramer said he would rather sell other stocks in his portfolio on Tuesday so that they will have more money to buy Apple if a buying opportunity is created.

    Cramer said his bottom line on Apple, it’s still a buy and on any weakness, even more so.

         
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    Posted: 24 January 2012 02:42 AM #8

    From summertime Peru,  Cheers to the Longs and to all who live and breathe Apple!  Get out the Spongebull… I know it’s not conventional wisdom here, but I’m riding this for its potential dent in the (micro) universe that translates into rapid share appreciation magnified by China iPhone enhance guidance for April.

    If there is a time that Apple can break free (for a time at least) of its PE compression, this is it. I can’t, with the guidance most of us are expecting, see the HUGE danger of holding positions through earnings, unless there is an expiry threat of course.

    To all: BON CHANCE, BONA FORTUNA, GOOD LUCK!

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    Posted: 24 January 2012 02:50 AM #9

    Cramer holds AAPL in his charitable trust and has that $500 price target, sure.  But he’s not credible.

    From

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/46105725/

    Given Sebastian?s chart work, Cramer thinks Apple?s stock is likely to sell off on Tuesday. He suggests selling Apple into the quarter.

    ?I’m never going to tell you not to take a profit in a stock that’s up big.  One of my cardinal tenets is never turn a profit into a loss and everyone who owns Apple has a profit in it.  Everyone.  This is the all-time high of all-time highs,? Cramer explained. ?My worry, though, is will you be able to get back in?  Can I get you back in??

    Institutional traders who can be nimble should heed Sebastian?s work and either play Apple with calls or take some profits knowing they might have to buy back what they sold in a few days, Cramer said. The big risk for everyone else who sells Apple shares is that the company ?truly blows out the quarter? and the stock doesn?t come in. If anything, though, he thinks investors should sell something, so that they have the money to buy more Apple shares in case Sebastian is right and we see a pullback.

    “Up big”?  From what?  Not from October, I can tell you that.  And most buy-n-holders were holding AAPL three months ago.

    Many of us here also remember Cramer getting suspiciously quiet about AAPL after Steve’s passing.

    Cramer’s a smart guy.  He’s earned the right to be an entertainer on his show.  But his lapses of inconsistency and ignorance of other relevant facts (like AAPL being up a whole buck from previous intraday highs from last year) are quite fairly up for questioning.

    [ Edited: 24 January 2012 02:57 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 24 January 2012 03:09 AM #10

    Watching Cramer’s video. 

    >>Oh the simplisticness in the first 3 minutes of that clip!  There’s NOTHING there but “look it went up, then it went down!”  What about medical leaves of absence?  Product expectations?  Missing the signs last October?  I mean heck, not like your analysis of technicals is all that…technical anyway, it’s just looking at trends!

    >>Wait…sell AAPL shares, buy calls?!  What the heck kind of advice from the technician is that?!  Buying calls without hedging is one of the riskiest things you can do right now!  IV deflation risk is immense!  At least with shares, there’s no such thing as vega and theta!

    >>All time highs…there’s that canard again…

    >>How can you say “low multiple” and “high price”?  Mixed signals…populist, not educational!

    >>Home gamers…sell something else…OK…be prepared for AAPL to sell off after earnings (“and you are doomed not to profit from it if you think otherwise”)....“but then you buy AAPL the next day if it’s down”...wait, what am I supposed to do?

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 24 January 2012 05:36 AM #11

    omacvi - 24 January 2012 05:54 AM

    I don’t know if we will hit 435, but we closed strongly enough to keep the momentum positive.

    JC is wrong about taking profits.  Good numbers will make the stock go up and those selling will be left thinking they should not have listened to him.  If we correct our p/e would drop to under 13.  I see a correction only after we move up at least 6%.

    Good point, one I’d forgotten in this tense time.  I’ve learned very well over the last 12 months that at least day to day fundamentals mean very little, but…

    In every previous quarter except last quarter, AAPL has hit PE15 in the 48 hours surrounding earnings.  Even last quarter with the “miss”, AAPL held at PE14 - one the day AFTER earnings, so post-selloff. 

    PE14 x $32ttm (90%+ of people here seem to agree on that as minimum) = $448

    Unless my sums are wrong (please do feel free to check my maths/data accuracy)?

         
  • Posted: 24 January 2012 08:37 AM #12

    jjjz - 24 January 2012 06:42 AM

    From summertime Peru,  Cheers to the Longs and to all who live and breathe Apple!  Get out the Spongebull… I know it’s not conventional wisdom here, but I’m riding this for its potential dent in the (micro) universe that translates into rapid share appreciation magnified by China iPhone enhance guidance for April.

    If there is a time that Apple can break free (for a time at least) of its PE compression, this is it. I can’t, with the guidance most of us are expecting, see the HUGE danger of holding positions through earnings, unless there is an expiry threat of course.

    To all: BON CHANCE, BONA FORTUNA, GOOD LUCK!

    +1 on that.  Call me an optimist but I am hoping for some other announcement on the call.  Could be getting some of that cash hoard back or might be some hint of a product announcement (thinking TC knows he can’t even compete with the charisma of SJ at an event and earnings call is clearly his best forum in which to shine.) I know, I know, I’m dreaming now. 
    Anyway a big thanks to all you for your dilligence, hard work and insightful postings over the last qtr all of which contributed to where my position in AAPL sits today.

         
  • Posted: 24 January 2012 08:44 AM #13

    Gregg….maybe you posted it already but what are you thinking today and going into the close tonight. Will you lighten up or sit firm.  I know it’s perpetually changing and evolving given market conditions and the macro overlays but just wanted to know what your overall game plan was as of this morning.  Many thanks in advance.

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    Posted: 24 January 2012 09:14 AM #14

    Nevyn - 24 January 2012 06:37 AM

    Did Cramer say to sell?

    NEW YORK (TheStreet)—“The most important earnings report is 2012 is upon us tomorrow,” Jim Cramer announced to his “Mad Money” TV show viewers on Monday, as he explained what investors should do as Apple (AAPL_), a stock which Cramer owns for his charitable trust, Action Alerts PLUS, reports its earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday.

    Thank you, Nevyn!! smile

         
  • Posted: 24 January 2012 09:28 AM #15

    Feels like Christmas morning. Get to open the presents later this afternoon. Will Santa be good to us? We have been very good all year.