Weekend Updates

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    Posted: 27 January 2012 09:10 PM #16

    grin

    ChasMac77 - 28 January 2012 12:47 AM

    Mav,
    Put on another butterfly yesterday (440/445/450) that paid off nicely after holding it till about noon today. One of these days they’ll get mr but for noe, liking these dull Fridays.

    Good weekend all!

    Red, what did you think of Siri last night? grin

    I liked the physical embodiment of Siri just fine. great show.

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 27 January 2012 09:11 PM #17

    Great to meet you, Paul. Never apologize for being a long. If you want to invest but don’t want to devote half your day it, going long Apple is the smartest choice, particularly if you can tune in enough to know the dips when you see them.

         
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    Posted: 27 January 2012 09:44 PM #18

    ChasMac77 - 28 January 2012 01:04 AM
    Mav - 28 January 2012 12:48 AM

    Chas, I’d love to hear what the hell you’re doing with those butterflies and, in general terms, how well.  LOL

    Well today I turned it around for 43%. Held it overnight which is the scary part, who knows gonna happen in the premarket. Have gotten lucky so far I guess. Hard to get fills on these both sides as well. I’m not placing huge bets, that’s for sure! Oh, and not trying to squeeze them to the end, take the money and run.

    Hot damn! :bugeyed:

    Kinda crazy, but nice work!

    So how and when did you set it up?

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 01:15 AM #19

    Mav - 28 January 2012 12:26 AM

    I’m in the same half of the US as AT is.

    I’m part of the self-titled, one-person AFB Night Owl Team?.

    And with my trusty 4S, I finally have a phone powerful enough to brute-force its way through these non-mobile-optimized TMO forums from anywhere, anytime. 

    That should answer your questions.

    alice, some of the trades going on amongst some of the AFB members are mind-bogglingly big.  I have no idea how big exactly, but it’s not hard to get a sense of the cars and small-to-large homes’ worth of trades being placed.


    Hah….......  I first read that as “with my trusty 45…...”

    Can’t go wrong with both actually!

      cheers
          JohnG

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 01:22 AM #20

    Mav - 28 January 2012 01:44 AM
    ChasMac77 - 28 January 2012 01:04 AM
    Mav - 28 January 2012 12:48 AM

    Chas, I’d love to hear what the hell you’re doing with those butterflies and, in general terms, how well.  LOL

    Well today I turned it around for 43%. Held it overnight which is the scary part, who knows gonna happen in the premarket. Have gotten lucky so far I guess. Hard to get fills on these both sides as well. I’m not placing huge bets, that’s for sure! Oh, and not trying to squeeze them to the end, take the money and run.

    Hot damn! :bugeyed:

    Kinda crazy, but nice work!

    So how and when did you set it up?

    Don’t know why ChasMac77 choose butterfly $445 instead of $450 which is the HOIC.  I open vertical ($445/$450) for 98 cents in the morning, closed it for $2.28 about 20 mins before market close, gaining 133%, max is about 233%, haha didn’t think it would go that high (if only I wait for another 10 mins).  Setup = bullish divergence on Thursday.  Tiny bet ofc, quoting % gain is for bragging only.

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    Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.  - Steve Jobs

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 01:28 AM #21

    Mace, you utter braggart.  wink

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 02:36 AM #22

    Apple II+ - 27 January 2012 06:16 AM
    omacvi - 26 January 2012 11:23 PM
    JDSoCal - 26 January 2012 10:52 PM

    Most retail investors really don’t look at P/E’s, they just look at the stock price. Anything in 3-figures is generally perceived as “expensive.”

    Example: I have a math professor friend with a stratospheric IQ (closer to 200 than 150). He has told me several times over the years how “expensive” he thought AAPL was, @ $125, $200, $300, etc., without once looking at the P/E, or any fundamentals. I still have the e-mails.

    The simple fact is, retail investors, and even a lot of dopey pros and analysts, simply look at the share price, with no regard what is behind its valuation. Thus, a $44 share price after a 10/1 split would double our AAPL common a lot quicker than a $444 one would, in my very strong opinion.

    To state what should be obvious to all here by now, P/E is irrelevant, other than to piss us all off


    JD

    I have lost track of smart professional friends who are successful lawyers and doctors who think AAPL is too expensive at 200 let alone 444.

    Mace - 26 January 2012 11:50 PM

    Not only lawyers and doctors.  I told a friend who is a private equity investor to buy AAPL when it is trading between $180-$200 in Dec 2009, he thinks is too expensive.  Btw, nobody care about P/E except journalists writing for eyeballs.  I don’t follow P/E anymore.  I don’t follow volume too.  Price is everything.

    Lawyers, doctors, and even private equity investors thinking AAPL is too expensive based on a three digit price is not nearly so shocking as a genius math professor thinking so. But he’s probably focused on higher order mathematics rather than wasting attention on simple arithmetic.

    “Price is everything” is the quote of the day.

    With apologies in advance to any lawyers and doctors out there, a comment on Bloomberg West from the CEO of Privco about the advantage of Morgan Stanley over Goldman Sachs for placing the Facebook IPO:

    Morgan Stanley has Smith Barney. Morgan Stanley Smith Barney has hundreds of thousands of medium to wealthy client accounts, and they have that special weapon when it comes to placing stock for very popular consumer internet names. Doctors, lawyers don’t tend to really crunch the numbers quite as well, and they’ll help pop the stock as well as place that $10 billion IPO float.

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    The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 02:41 AM #23

    I wonder how long it’ll be before options get written on Facebook.

    I recall it was a while until they were available for Groupon.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 05:22 AM #24

    Mace - 28 January 2012 05:22 AM
    Mav - 28 January 2012 01:44 AM
    ChasMac77 - 28 January 2012 01:04 AM
    Mav - 28 January 2012 12:48 AM

    Chas, I’d love to hear what the hell you’re doing with those butterflies and, in general terms, how well.  LOL

    Well today I turned it around for 43%. Held it overnight which is the scary part, who knows gonna happen in the premarket. Have gotten lucky so far I guess. Hard to get fills on these both sides as well. I’m not placing huge bets, that’s for sure! Oh, and not trying to squeeze them to the end, take the money and run.

    Hot damn! :bugeyed:

    Kinda crazy, but nice work!

    So how and when did you set it up?

    Don’t know why ChasMac77 choose butterfly $445 instead of $450 which is the HOIC.  I open vertical ($445/$450) for 98 cents in the morning, closed it for $2.28 about 20 mins before market close, gaining 133%, max is about 233%, haha didn’t think it would go that high (if only I wait for another 10 mins).  Setup = bullish divergence on Thursday.  Tiny bet ofc, quoting % gain is for bragging only.

    Mace, nicely done. Only gave % since Mav asked. Was going to go with the 450 but looked like the 445 was the one (which it actually closed closer to). Butterfly gave me room on both sides, lower return than your vertical for sure.

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 05:32 AM #25

    Well, I was only asking in “general terms” but nice of you to provide the percentage. smile

    What I’m asking is when the trade was set up and what the original profit potential was in percentage terms per butterfly.  I get the 440/445/450 part.  But…net credit transaction?  Breakeven around where?  About long does the share price have to “hold still” before significant profit for the weekly?  If max gain was say $70, was max loss $100?  Stuff like that.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 28 January 2012 04:14 PM #26

    TA note

    Measured move to 468 or runaway gap to considerably higher?

    http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=27912323

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 04:56 PM #27

    From Options Strategy thread:

    Gregg Thurman - 27 January 2012 08:12 PM
    Mav - 27 January 2012 07:29 PM

    And is it just me or have all the markets just ignored all the structural economic problems worldwide so far this year?

    That’s what we had 2011 for.  After being told repeatedly (by those less knowledgeable than ourselves) that Greece, Spain, Portugal et al faced imminent default, and they didn’t, the markets are becoming numbed to the prospects.

    The fact is, the rest of the capitalist world will not allow that to happen.  The only issue is what it will take to get those countries to accept the medicine.  The longer this drags out, the more likely Greece et al will cave in.  Its called political backbone.

    IMHO, it’s called monetary intervention:

    Central Banks to the Rescue!

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 05:35 PM #28

    Interesting…a “things are looking up” from the ECB.

    I’m skeptical (which is why I’m not anywhere near 100% invested right now), but you know what, any hints of improving global economy and/or abating Euro crisis = good sign!  This market really wants to go higher.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 05:56 PM #29

    At the moment, the market’s being juiced higher. wink

         
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    Posted: 28 January 2012 05:58 PM #30

    Always gotta be suspicious of the juice…especially when it runs low…

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.