Don’t forget 100M for the Apple TV

Apple has plenty of sticks in the fire.  Books, Movies, TV, and has patents in a ton of areas which as a minimum means Apple has an enginner working in the area.  Hell if Apple actually figures out how to use liquid metal collector plates in fuel cells, they could be the Fuel provider for the electric vehicle, but the analysts assume failure and just look for reasons to keep the valuations low, but we all know in the end earnings are what matters, because people want to make money and Apple right now is about as close as you can come to a sure thing over the next few years and the ideas in the pipeline point to an even brighter future if they can execute.

I love this thread.  It talks about big things and as you all know I am the big dreamer.

I thought about it today a lot.  I am actually glad WS does not get us.  We need to go up nice and slowly.

I don’t want to wake up seeing the stock move 100 points in one day because they split and issued a dividend and WS finally sees the light.

I know the option folks would love it but if we move too fast and too much, talk about a future trillion company gets old fast.

I will buy more because I am afraid WS is reading too much AFB

omacvi - 28 January 2012 06:49 PM

I love this thread.  It talks about big things and as you all know I am the big dreamer.

I thought about it today a lot.  I am actually glad WS does not get us.  We need to go up nice and slowly.

I don’t want to wake up seeing the stock move 100 points in one day because they split and issued a dividend and WS finally sees the light.

I know the option folks would love it but if we move too fast and too much, talk about a future trillion company gets old fast.

I will buy more because I am afraid WS is reading too much AFB

I feel the same way.  The fact that it’s still so undervalued means there’s no temptation to take profits here.  It makes it so easy to just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Less drama is never a bad thing for a stock.  We may have new “heights” of boring this year, considering how cheap AAPL is - and how everyone knows it.

Big Al - 27 January 2012 07:01 PM

In the intraday update thread I have read an interesting comment by Adam which I would like to take up and discuss in a little more detail:

“But what you have to absolutely LOVE as an AAPL shareholder is that TC said on the F3Q11 call that Apple’s share of the total phone market is only 5% and he thought eventually all phones would be smart phones. Basically, he said what Horace has been saying for a long time now but it means an awful lot more when you hear TC say it (no offense, Horace). TC isn’t playing the game to win the current smart phone market. He’s playing to win the global phone market.”

I also loved Tim Cook’s comment and it fits into what I think some people misperceive about Apple, namely, that it is NOT that large.

When it comes to Apple I always hear about the „law-of-large-numbers“-argument. A lot of investors just don’t think that a company the size of Apple can grow as fast in the next 5 years as it has grown in the last 5 years. Apple has just become too large!

This argument is flawed because Apple is in fact NOT that large! Yes, Apple is the company with the highest market cap. Yes, Apple’s revenue numbers are huge, as are earnings and cash. But is this the right definition of „large“ that investors should focus on? I don’t think so.

Market cap, revenues and earnings are all financial indicators. However, they do not indicate the potential for future growth, and whether Apple is too large to grow at current rates (or even at half these rates). More interesting would be to ask how many more products can Apple sell in the future, and at what price?

Big Al, with a global economy where you can manufacture in Asia, and sell the product two days later anywhere in the world (faster distribution than we had in the 1950’s from Detroit to Los Angeles), consumer electronic name brands are going to consolidate to no more than 3 majors, and a plethora of very minor, regional players (the Other category).

In that scenario, I can see Apple selling every other handset, and nearly all the tablets.