Mav - 29 January 2012 08:50 PM

+1 to both.

Just for now, I’ll keep my trades farther out expiration-wise to a point where there’s a little higher chance of staying solvent in case the market stays irrational.

good call.

Gregg Thurman - 29 January 2012 09:10 PM

Mav - 29 January 2012 08:39 PM

Based on recent historical trends of possibly dubious value, AAPL could easily get to 530 around the time of April earnings.  But I don’t see enough signs - yet - for the market to bid up AAPL anywhere near 20% within three months when it took the market almost the whole year to do that in 2011.

I see where you are coming from, comparing this year’s performance to last year’s performance, but you can’t do that in a vacuum.

Last year Apple FAILED, on numerous occasions, to make its numbers.  The market reacted accordingly.  I know I keep harping on this, and many continue to discount the thesis, but once you get your head around the concept that Apple, being just like any other firm, can miss as well as exceed estimates, then the evidence becomes very clear.

I’m settling in with an EPS estimate of ~$12.50 for the March quarter.  Should Apple followup the December quarter by actually reporting $12.75+, you will see an expansion of AAPL’s ISM.  If Apple reports less than $12.50 you won’t like the market’s reaction.

iCal me for that.

+1

im thinking they are going to have a real hard time making 12.5 this quarter. Remember is a week short too. Im thinking 11.5-12.0 eps. Even with those earnings it will drop the PE down into the 11’s.  thats my guess for now until we hear more about the ipad 3 release

Mercel - 29 January 2012 08:40 PM

A article on WS at Bloomberg is worth a read.  Wall Street clearly needs a shake up without a shake out (we’ve seen that bad movie already).  Hope springs eternal.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-30/wall-street-wants-rebound-needs-shakeup-commentary-by-william-d-cohan.html

There’s enough in that article to start a whole other forum.

A podcast from MacWorld “The state of Apple” with Jason Snell and John Gruber.

http://www.macworld.com/article/165072/2012/01/the_state_of_apple.html#lsrc.twt_Macworld

I cannot see how an EPS of $12.50 would be disappointing.

The consensus is at $9.25.  $12.50 means WS analysts are all just puppets or co-conspirators - and that’s going too far.

po1nt - 29 January 2012 09:18 PM

+1

im thinking they are going to have a real hard time making 12.5 this quarter. Remember is a week short too. Im thinking 11.5-12.0 eps. Even with those earnings it will drop the PE down into the 11’s.  thats my guess for now until we hear more about the ipad 3 release

I assume you mean mid/high 11s based on a $11.50 number.  If you mean low 11s, we’re already there.

Mercel - 29 January 2012 08:45 PM

Possible catalysts until next earnings call (in order):

1.  iPad 3 announcement and launch
2.  MacBook Airs in 15” and 17” flavors (I think this is more than 60/40 likely)
3.  Possible divvy and/or stock split
4.  Leaks/Rumors re: iTV and iPhone 5
5.  Ramp to FQ2 2012 earnings

I’m more comfortable holding this time of year than last year.  For one thing, AAPL has a P/E under 13!  Temporary insanity.

I know its crazy, but the p/e has contracted once again, not sure if it will get back to 15 p/e before earnings, but it would be nice

as of this moment im not in apple, i bought some google and going to hopefull sell some shares a little over 600 then maybe i can can get back into apple.

This is a wonderful message board it just kind of stinks theres nothing like this board for other stocks.

I wonder if apple will surpass google in share price this year, if not this year then maybe next but i would think it will happen sooner then later.

po1nt - 29 January 2012 09:18 PM

+1

im thinking they are going to have a real hard time making 12.5 this quarter. Remember is a week short too. Im thinking 11.5-12.0 eps.

12 weeks, 13 weeks, 14 weeks, it doesn’t matter.  The iPhone 4S was only available, in limited markets, for 13 weeks.  The 3 year December trend was 91% YoY growth.  This year iPhone unit sales grew 128%, and that did not happen because there was an extra week.

What matters is what management guided, and how you interpret what was provided.

Looking at historical trends for the March quarter (all 13 week quarters), then adjusting for the expansion of iPhone 4S carriers and GM %, is how I arrived at my estimates.

Even with those earnings it will drop the PE down into the 11’s.  thats my guess for now until we hear more about the ipad 3 release

ISM does not matter, what matters is Investor Sentiment in relation to the prior period.  During the December quarter the highest Investor Sentiment was +1%.  Since earnings Investor Sentiment has been +5%, and I expect that to go up to 25% prior to April earnings.

Mav - 29 January 2012 09:30 PM

I cannot see how an EPS of $12.50 would be disappointing.

The consensus is at $9.25.  $12.50 means WS analysts are all just puppets or co-conspirators - and that’s going too far.

$9.25 is a preliminary number released in haste after earnings.  WS will modify its consensus as the quarter wears on.  Then there is the ‘whisper number’, which I believe is real and much higher than WS’s public (initial) estimates.  Apple met WS consensus back in October, but missed the Street’s ‘whisper’ and got smacked down for it.

Look up the definition of ‘whisper number’ on Wiki-pedia.

Gregg Thurman - 29 January 2012 09:10 PM

Mav - 29 January 2012 08:39 PM

Based on recent historical trends of possibly dubious value, AAPL could easily get to 530 around the time of April earnings.  But I don’t see enough signs - yet - for the market to bid up AAPL anywhere near 20% within three months when it took the market almost the whole year to do that in 2011.

I see where you are coming from, comparing this year’s performance to last year’s performance, but you can’t do that in a vacuum.

 

Gregg…I think you misunderstood where I’m coming from.

I don’t do much historical trend analysis AAPL price-wise because my preference, and slightly greater competence, is in looking forward.

I’m just saying investor sentiment, from these extremely limited data points, is not looking like a jump to 500+ in April.  Yet.  Much can happen to change that - iPad 3 with Siri and cheap iPad 2 will change the game.  But who the heck knows if that’ll happen this quarter.  Many of us (excepting folks like AT) were very surprised to see the iPhone interval having shifted from 12 to 15 months last year.  The consequence of secrecy is unpredictability.

Gregg Thurman - 29 January 2012 09:41 PM

Look up the definition of ‘whisper number’ on Wiki-pedia.

Careful.  You sound close to patronizing.

WS has their low number.  The independents have a higher number, and I do as well. There’s some “whisper number” (I guess one “good” example is the borderline scurrilous, absolutely unaccountable earningswhispers.com since it’s “published”) out there that can come in higher than the independents’.  But you have at least implied at points that the “internal estimate” number goes even higher than the “whisper number.”  A _second_ whisper number?  Where does it end?  That’s why I anchor my numbers, expectations, and evaluation of Apple’s performance in objectivity where possible and deal with the price swings as they come.

Burgess - 29 January 2012 08:47 PM

Mercel - 29 January 2012 08:45 PM

Possible catalysts until next earnings call (in order):

1.  iPad 3 announcement and launch
2.  MacBook Airs in 15” and 17” flavors (I think this is more than 60/40 likely)
3.  Possible divvy and/or stock split
4.  Leaks/Rumors re: iTV and iPhone 5
5.  Ramp to FQ2 2012 earnings

I’m more comfortable holding this time of year than last year.  For one thing, AAPL has a P/E under 13!  Temporary insanity.

6. Chinese iPhone carrier announcement.

Yep.  My oversight.  I’ll add one more:

7.  Analysts raise price targets.

I’m usually a pretty optimistic person, but all this crap about Chinese labor, makes me think we are being engineered to a short term sell-off.  We’ll be able to tell tomorrow AM.  If the talking heads (& flapping jaws) of CNBC are playing this up large, then you may want to consider keeping some powder dry.

Mav - 29 January 2012 08:50 PM

+1 to both.

Just for now, I’ll keep my trades farther out expiration-wise to a point where there’s a little higher chance of staying solvent in case the market stays irrational.

IMHO: smart, smart, smart!!

This is nothing new.  At all.

What makes you think this is different?  Because the New York Times is making a series out of this instead of a scattershot approach?

If we start with the safe assumption that Apple users are a discerning bunch, I think it also stands to reason that they’re aware of the “Assembled in China” deal as well as the “Designed by Apple in California” deal. 

Let Wall Street do what it will.  As long as you haven’t bet the farm and mortgaged your dog on weeklies or Feb 12s, you should get through any short-term headwinds fine.

*takes a deep breath* subject to macro and the unanticipated and everything that could go wrong in the universe.