When To Sell Apple? (IMO, not for some time)

  • Posted: 30 January 2012 04:56 PM

    This is an excellent, well-written article by someone who eloquently expresses why Apple stock is perfect for a long term, no-diversification investment. As I mentioned in my first posting to this board, my wife and I have no diversification at all; both of us have our 401Ks and IRAs totally invested in Apple stock. I want to share the article with others on the board who may not have seen it.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/325582-when-to-sell-apple?source=yahoo


    I also tried to include a link to his first article on Seeking Alpha regarding Apple, which apparently received quite a response. However, I got this response when I tried to include it:
      Action Denied: Blacklisted Item Found
    To read this article as well, click on the second word of the linked article which is, not surprisingly, the word, “first”.
    This article was posted on 08/04/11.

    I?d encourage anyone interested in the articles to not overlook the comments section. The comments on the 08/04/11 article are especially worth reading.

    [ Edited: 30 January 2012 05:18 PM by Luckychoices ]      
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    Posted: 30 January 2012 05:37 PM #1

    Luckychoices - 30 January 2012 08:56 PM

    This is an excellent, well-written article by someone who eloquently expresses why Apple stock is perfect for a long term, no-diversification investment. As I mentioned in my first posting to this board, my wife and I have no diversification at all; both of us have our 401Ks and IRAs totally invested in Apple stock. I want to share the article with others on the board who may not have seen it.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/325582-when-to-sell-apple?source=yahoo


    I also tried to include a link to his first article on Seeking Alpha regarding Apple, which apparently received quite a response. However, I got this response when I tried to include it:
      Action Denied: Blacklisted Item Found
    To read this article as well, click on the second word of the linked article which is, not surprisingly, the word, “first”.
    This article was posted on 08/04/11.

    I?d encourage anyone interested in the articles to not overlook the comments section. The comments on the 08/04/11 article are especially worth reading.

    Lucky, do you strictly buy and hold aapl?  Or do you swing trade a portion of it like many on these forums?

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2012 06:04 PM #2

    I’m confused why the author of the article, which I agree with the general basis of, is also long Microsoft. (according to his diclosure).

    Signature

    Full Disclosure:

    - Long Apple
    - Pro: Apple HDTV, iPhone Air, Stock split, Consumer robotics

         
  • Posted: 30 January 2012 06:08 PM #3

    Nevyn,
    As I recounted in my first post on this board, my wife and I (along with millions of others, of course) managed to lose a substantial amount of money when the tech bubble burst. Since then, I’ve become much more cautious. When the economy collapsed and Apple went from just under $200 down to about $80/share, I wasn’t smart enough to sell my IRA and 401K accounts, at least by $160/share or so, to prevent such a large paper loss (and, of course, also allow me to double my shares). This made me question my ability to “see the forest for the trees” when it came to Apple. When Apple started to rebound, I successfully made a couple of smart (I thought) decisions to take advantage of its volatility. When the stock made a good advance, I sold some shares, then bought back when Apple dropped. This worked wonderfully right up until it didn’t. I remember very clearly selling shares at about $130, waiting for it to drop, and then watching it climb into the $140’s.  When I finally realized it wasn’t coming back down I had to buy those shares back at $142. This is the background that makes me think I may not be cut out for swing trading. I confess I don’t know the particulars of how it works but I’m very risk adverse.

    So, the short answer is buy and hold only. Maybe I’ll stick a toe in the water sometime and try swing trading but it’ll only be a little toe.

         
  • Posted: 30 January 2012 06:10 PM #4

    Burgess - 30 January 2012 10:04 PM

    I’m confused why the author of the article, which I agree with the general basis of, is also long Microsoft. (according to his diclosure).

    I agree, I’d never buy Microsoft either.

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2012 06:23 PM #5

    Luckychoices - 30 January 2012 08:56 PM

    This is an excellent, well-written article by someone who eloquently expresses why Apple stock is perfect for a long term, no-diversification investment. As I mentioned in my first posting to this board, my wife and I have no diversification at all; both of us have our 401Ks and IRAs totally invested in Apple stock. I want to share the article with others on the board who may not have seen it.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/325582-when-to-sell-apple?source=yahoo


    I also tried to include a link to his first article on Seeking Alpha regarding Apple, which apparently received quite a response. However, I got this response when I tried to include it:
      Action Denied: Blacklisted Item Found
    To read this article as well, click on the second word of the linked article which is, not surprisingly, the word, “first”.
    This article was posted on 08/04/11.

    I?d encourage anyone interested in the articles to not overlook the comments section. The comments on the 08/04/11 article are especially worth reading.

    If you ever have this problem, use the redirect site http://tinyurl.com/ to link to a site/story.

    Signature

    We filed for over 200 patents for all the inventions in iPhone and we intend to protect them. — Steve Jobs, 2007

         
  • Posted: 30 January 2012 07:07 PM #6

    Good articles. In the second one he says this:

    Granted, Siri needs some time right now to find her way (beta), I still believe that with Siri, Apple is again building its future. Like the iPod, iPhone and iPad, we just don’t realize its disruptive potential.

    I think that is probably true. I keep waiting for the “killer app” to come along for the iPad or iPhone that will accelerate them like Lotus 123 did years ago for the PC. I had hoped that FaceTime might do it. Maybe Siri or something to do with Siri?

    IOS is so ripe for a killer app. It would have an unbelievable effect on sales and P/E. We wouldn’t know what hit us.

         
  • Posted: 30 January 2012 07:26 PM #7

    JDSoCal - 30 January 2012 10:23 PM
    Luckychoices - 30 January 2012 08:56 PM

    This is an excellent, well-written article by someone who eloquently expresses why Apple stock is perfect for a long term, no-diversification investment. As I mentioned in my first posting to this board, my wife and I have no diversification at all; both of us have our 401Ks and IRAs totally invested in Apple stock. I want to share the article with others on the board who may not have seen it.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/325582-when-to-sell-apple?source=yahoo


    I also tried to include a link to his first article on Seeking Alpha regarding Apple, which apparently received quite a response. However, I got this response when I tried to include it:
      Action Denied: Blacklisted Item Found
    To read this article as well, click on the second word of the linked article which is, not surprisingly, the word, “first”.
    This article was posted on 08/04/11.

    I?d encourage anyone interested in the articles to not overlook the comments section. The comments on the 08/04/11 article are especially worth reading.

    If you ever have this problem, use the redirect site http://tinyurl.com/ to link to a site/story.

    Thanks, JD. I’ll use that in the future

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2012 07:35 PM #8

    It’s good to ask this question every couple of months, even though I ask this question at some subconscious level every single day (side “benefit” of being a trader-investor). 

    Simple:  Slowing growth/financial performance (deep dive to find out why first), management issues (from overt management statements and acts to acts of the company entity itself to management changes), genuine product issues (read:  not overblown crap like we’ve seen since forever, see also:  management issues), severe externalities, and other obvious “black swan” events.  Any of these events should trigger a more comprehensive reassessment.  The “when to sell” is, as always, up to the individual.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 30 January 2012 11:02 PM #9

    Mav - 30 January 2012 11:35 PM

    It’s good to ask this question every couple of months, even though I ask this question at some subconscious level every single day (side “benefit” of being a trader-investor). 

    Simple:  Slowing growth/financial performance (deep dive to find out why first), management issues (from overt management statements and acts to acts of the company entity itself to management changes), genuine product issues (read:  not overblown crap like we’ve seen since forever, see also:  management issues), severe externalities, and other obvious “black swan” events.  Any of these events should trigger a more comprehensive reassessment.  The “when to sell” is, as always, up to the individual.


    Thanks for listing those points, Mav. I haven’t really had a checklist about when to sell, but your points will certainly be on it when I put one together. In fact, your points may be my checklist.

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2012 11:04 PM #10

    I accept checks, money orders and all major credit cards…through PayPal.  LOL

    Honestly?  Every one of us who has significant market/trading experience has this in the back of their minds somewhere.  I’m just the first person to post ‘em in this topic.

    Smart and aware bulls are the best ones.  You don’t find ‘em chasing red cloth in arenas unless they’re into that kinda thing. raspberry

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 31 January 2012 12:33 AM #11

    Mav - 31 January 2012 03:04 AM

    I accept checks, money orders and all major credit cards…through PayPal.  LOL

    Honestly?  Every one of us who has significant market/trading experience has this in the back of their minds somewhere.  I’m just the first person to post ‘em in this topic.

    Smart and aware bulls are the best ones.  You don’t find ‘em chasing red cloth in arenas unless they’re into that kinda thing. raspberry

    Mav, I want to sincerely apologize for anything I’ve said in any of my grand total of 19 posts on this board which has given you the totally mistaken impression that I’m one of those people with, “...significant market/trading experience..”.
      MY only successful market experience lies in this complex but foolproof strategy:
                            1. Buy shares of Apple stock
                            2. Don’t sell them

    So far, this strategy has worked really well for me. And while I read this board every day and am pleased to read about the opinions and successes of folks like yourself, I’m reluctant to alter my present strategy which, to date, although nerve-wracking at times, has proven both easy to remember and financially rewarding.  grin

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2012 12:54 AM #12

    Burgess - 30 January 2012 10:04 PM

    I’m confused why the author of the article, which I agree with the general basis of, is also long Microsoft. (according to his diclosure).

    I can only assume anyone Long MSFT would only do that on the ‘hope/assumption’ that SB is close to getting S-canned. There’s absolutely NO other logical reason to be long MSFT at this time. That said, SB getting fired would only give MSFT a brief bandaid bump. They’re doomed to the junk pile of corporate America.

    In general I would IGNORE advice from anyone who was long MSFT>  rolleyes

        cheers to the longs
          JohnG

    [ Edited: 31 January 2012 08:53 AM by johnG ]      
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    Posted: 31 January 2012 01:01 AM #13

    Luckychoices - 31 January 2012 04:33 AM

    Mav, I want to sincerely apologize for anything I’ve said in any of my grand total of 19 posts on this board which has given you the totally mistaken impression that I’m one of those people with, “...significant market/trading experience..”.
      MY only successful market experience lies in this complex but foolproof strategy:
                            1. Buy shares of Apple stock
                            2. Don’t sell them

    So far, this strategy has worked really well for me. And while I read this board every day and am pleased to read about the opinions and successes of folks like yourself, I’m reluctant to alter my present strategy which, to date, although nerve-wracking at times, has proven both easy to remember and financially rewarding.  grin

    There’s some people around here who’ve had the great insight to have bought AAPL a long, long, long time ago.  Forget multibaggers for them.  They need armored cars for all them bags.  wink

    (Note the use of “they”)

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 31 January 2012 02:57 AM #14

    Mav - 31 January 2012 05:01 AM
    Luckychoices - 31 January 2012 04:33 AM

    Mav, I want to sincerely apologize for anything I’ve said in any of my grand total of 19 posts on this board which has given you the totally mistaken impression that I’m one of those people with, “...significant market/trading experience..”.
      MY only successful market experience lies in this complex but foolproof strategy:
                            1. Buy shares of Apple stock
                            2. Don’t sell them

    So far, this strategy has worked really well for me. And while I read this board every day and am pleased to read about the opinions and successes of folks like yourself, I’m reluctant to alter my present strategy which, to date, although nerve-wracking at times, has proven both easy to remember and financially rewarding.  grin

    There’s some people around here who’ve had the great insight to have bought AAPL a long, long, long time ago.  Forget multibaggers for them.  They need armored cars for all them bags.  wink

    (Note the use of “they”)

    Yes, Mav, noted.  And I must admit that I envy those on the board with insight. If I had insight instead of only luck, I would have doubled my number of shares when Apple’s share price was heading from $200 to $80 by selling at $160 and buying back in at $80. Of course, if I’d had the insight to sell at $190, so much the better.

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2012 04:15 AM #15

    Luckychoices story

    When to sell a growth stock such as AAPL?

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