When To Sell Apple? (IMO, not for some time)

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    Posted: 01 February 2012 05:26 PM #31

    Mace - 01 February 2012 04:55 PM
    Paul Goodwin - 01 February 2012 02:52 PM

    ... So it would be tough for me to go back to all the eggs in one basket scenario. Apple’s a hell of a basket right now though. Just set your criteria for when to make a move. Don’t you just love gambling with your life blood ?  Drives me nuts.

    Investing 100% in AAPL is not gamble because of its strong fundamentals and low probability of going into a multi-year or permanent decline.  Stocks are risky and investing in them is a gamble when it has high probability of a multi-year or permanent decline such as RIMM and most tech stocks in 2000.

    Btw, alternative to buying dividend stock is to buy a growth stock e.g. AAPL :apple: and sell a little annually to fund lifestyle.  Since 2002, AAPL appreciates at 60%+ annually on average, last year is 25+%.  Theoretically, you can sell 60% of AAPL annually yet the original investment remains the same much like dividend stocks.

    My short story:  Retired in 2002, age 44, staying in a 1200 sqft condo with a housing loan, stock portfolio 99% AAPL 1% index fund.  Now, age 54, staying in a fully paid 1700 single family house + renting out a 2000 single family house,  stock portfolio 95% AAPL 5% index fund/trading money.  Sold AAPL annually to fund lifestyle.  Would be selling more AAPL this year, considering buying a rental property in Austin grin, think is a good choice?

    Just for interest, a line of guys over 60 years old:
    Paul Goodwin
    Luckychoices
    Gregg Thurman
    Greyfox
    TanToday
    capablanca?
    Howard
    DawnTreader?
    Elmar?
    Please pardon if I forgot some1 else.  ? means not sure.

    I recently bought a second home, at age 61, with funds from my Roth IRA, which has been entirely invested in Apple. 

    But back when the Great Recession hit, Apple shares went down from about 200 to about 79 in a fairly short time.  For anyone investing in the market, just be aware that a black swan event can always halve your stock stash in a short time.  I like to think of myself as fairly unemotional when it comes to investing, but during the months of rapid decline, I could barely look at my portfolio. Fortunately, I didn’t panic and held on through it all, and have been rewarded since (though not as much as I had hoped).

    I decided yesterday to diversify my holdings for the first time in several years. I’m still over 80% in AAPL, but bought four widely diverse stocks and intend to buy more, gradually drawing down my AAPL investment in the next years.  I will also be shifting partly out of equities, but right now greed controls my investing and I still want growth stocks. 

    Retirement is just a year and a half away, and then I can turn into a really cranky old guy. Actually, as a photographer, I will never completely retire from my work, just the aspects of it that I will no longer be able to do.

         
  • Posted: 01 February 2012 05:28 PM #32

    alice - 01 February 2012 06:47 PM

    Just for interest, a line of guys over 60 years old:
    Paul Goodwin
    Luckychoices
    Gregg Thurman
    Greyfox
    TanToday
    capablanca?
    Howard
    DawnTreader?
    Please pardon if I forgot some1 else.? ? means not sure.

    50 - 60 group
    Elmar
    Mace
    Alice

    Edit:  just for fun

    Thanks for the update, alice. Soon we’ll have enough info for that chart of the AFB age range.  wink

         
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    Posted: 01 February 2012 05:48 PM #33

    List updated.

    Guys over 60 years old:
    Paul Goodwin
    Luckychoices
    Gregg Thurman
    Greyfox
    TanToday
    capablanca?
    Howard
    DawnTreader?
    Firestrom
    JDSoCal?

    50 - 60 group
    Elmar
    Mace
    Alice
    Lovemyipad
    BillH?
    Galleybob

    Edit:  Added galley bob

    [ Edited: 01 February 2012 06:02 PM by Mace ]

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  • Posted: 01 February 2012 05:57 PM #34

    60 in Sept.

         
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    Posted: 01 February 2012 06:07 PM #35

    Mav - 01 February 2012 09:11 PM

    ... One interesting side effect that some AAPL shareholders experience is that AAPL-related investments and trades can _become_ your core asset over time.

    Mav and firestorm,

    It makes me uncomfortable with so much net worth in AAPL even though haven’t seemed anything wrong in Apple business.  To sleep better at night, I’ve decided to diversify into RE and cash.  My goal is 45% equities, 45% RE and 10% cash.  Currently, 60% equities, 32% RE and 8% cash.  At one time, equities (mostly AAPL) represent over 90% of net worth.


    Firestorm,

    My reason for diversifying into RE rather than other stocks is because of hyperinflation protection (RE is real asset) and for my two sons to stay in when they’re married or want to be independent.  Why do you think those four stocks are good?

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  • Posted: 01 February 2012 06:11 PM #36

    Mace - 01 February 2012 09:48 PM

    List updated.

    Guys over 60 years old:
    Paul Goodwin
    Luckychoices
    Gregg Thurman
    Greyfox
    TanToday
    capablanca?
    Howard
    DawnTreader?
    Firestrom
    JDSoCal?

    50 - 60 group
    Elmar
    Mace
    Alice
    Lovemyipad
    BillH?
    Galleybob

    Edit:  Added galley bob

    First cut

    Image Attachments

    Age Ranges On AFB.png

    Click thumbnail to see full-size image

         
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    Posted: 01 February 2012 07:09 PM #37

    Mace - 01 February 2012 10:07 PM
    Mav - 01 February 2012 09:11 PM

    ... One interesting side effect that some AAPL shareholders experience is that AAPL-related investments and trades can _become_ your core asset over time.

    Mav and firestorm,

    It makes me uncomfortable with so much net worth in AAPL even though haven’t seemed anything wrong in Apple business.  To sleep better at night, I’ve decided to diversify into RE and cash.  My goal is 45% equities, 45% RE and 10% cash.  Currently, 60% equities, 32% RE and 8% cash.  At one time, equities (mostly AAPL) represent over 90% of net worth.


    Firestorm,

    My reason for diversifying into RE rather than other stocks is because of hyperinflation protection (RE is real asset) and for my two sons to stay in when they’re married or want to be independent.  Why do you think those four stocks are good?

    RE can also be a headache; I’m home today watching over repair work on the drainage system on my house, which is costing about 15 shares of APPL (that is, until they found other problems that might mean another 6 or 8 shares of APPL).  I live on Washington State’s Olympic Peninsula, on a slope above a lake, and we average 65” of rain per year, so drainage is really important.  The garage door at my other house was just hit and ruined by a snowplow, so I’ll have to have that replaced when I visit that cold and snowy state.  Maybe I should have just bought one of those distressed properties in warm and sunny Las Vegas, where the biggest worry as an absentee owner would be meth-heads coming in and stealing every bit of metal in the house.

    Cash would be good, but there is no return at all for a safe cash investment.

    I would welcome hearing other ideas for investing at this stage, as I think Apple’s steep growth curve will begin to level out this year.

         
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    Posted: 01 February 2012 07:58 PM #38

    firestorm - 01 February 2012 11:09 PM

    ... I’m home today watching over repair work on the drainage system on my house, which is costing about 15 shares of APPL (that is, until they found other problems that might mean another 6 or 8 shares of APPL).

    We think alike regarding AAPL shares grin.  Have been using AAPL share as a measure of money for a couple of years.  Landed in USA in 2002, a meal in a restaurant would cost 1-2 shares.  Today, one share would buy 30 good meals.  Deflation!

    firestorm - 01 February 2012 11:09 PM

    ... Cash would be good, but there is no return at all for a safe cash investment.

    If you use other goods e.g. a cup, a car, a house, a cartoon of milk, (put in your often used goods) as money, so long you can buy more of them some time in the future, cash offers a return grin.  Median price of a new home in Oct 2006 is 250,400.  In Oct 2011, $212,300.  So $250,400 can buy 250400/212300 = 1.18 new home, 18% return.

    firestorm - 01 February 2012 11:09 PM

    I would welcome hearing other ideas for investing at this stage, as I think Apple’s steep growth curve will begin to level out this year.

    I’ve been monitoring ABT, JNJ, PG, CAT, DE, GLW, MMM, KMP, POT, BHP and MCD but haven’t bought any.  Priority is to buy houses.  Are those any good?

    Edit:  Corrected maths error.  30 not 15 meals.  18% not 15% home.

    [ Edited: 02 February 2012 01:17 AM by Mace ]

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  • Posted: 02 February 2012 12:49 AM #39

    A couple of things.  59 is sublime but I’m heading for 60 in December.  wink  I’m still all in and retired thanks to AAPL and am currently in Key West getting ready to purchase some RE as it’s called hereabouts.  This will consume quite a few shares both now and moving forward as we proceed to rip it apart and put it back together again.

    My tip of the day is a company traded as CVLT.  Don’t know a thing about them but it was my nephews pick for this year and currently kicking my AAPL butt.  I can live with the $100.00 wager it will cost me if it continues through the year but oh…, the humiliation!  :-o

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    Posted: 02 February 2012 01:29 AM #40

    firestorm - 01 February 2012 11:09 PM
    Mace - 01 February 2012 10:07 PM
    Mav - 01 February 2012 09:11 PM

    ... One interesting side effect that some AAPL shareholders experience is that AAPL-related investments and trades can _become_ your core asset over time.

    Mav and firestorm,

    It makes me uncomfortable with so much net worth in AAPL even though haven’t seemed anything wrong in Apple business.  To sleep better at night, I’ve decided to diversify into RE and cash.  My goal is 45% equities, 45% RE and 10% cash.  Currently, 60% equities, 32% RE and 8% cash.  At one time, equities (mostly AAPL) represent over 90% of net worth.


    Firestorm,

    My reason for diversifying into RE rather than other stocks is because of hyperinflation protection (RE is real asset) and for my two sons to stay in when they’re married or want to be independent.  Why do you think those four stocks are good?

    RE can also be a headache; I’m home today watching over repair work on the drainage system on my house, which is costing about 15 shares of APPL (that is, until they found other problems that might mean another 6 or 8 shares of APPL).  I live on Washington State’s Olympic Peninsula, on a slope above a lake, and we average 65” of rain per year, so drainage is really important.  The garage door at my other house was just hit and ruined by a snowplow, so I’ll have to have that replaced when I visit that cold and snowy state.  Maybe I should have just bought one of those distressed properties in warm and sunny Las Vegas, where the biggest worry as an absentee owner would be meth-heads coming in and stealing every bit of metal in the house.

    Cash would be good, but there is no return at all for a safe cash investment.

    I would welcome hearing other ideas for investing at this stage, as I think Apple’s steep growth curve will begin to level out this year.

    If you spent about 40 shares on a subcompact tractor loader with a backhoe, you could solve your own problems.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp97MXwtVSU

    Might want to short Facebook since advert money spent there is trying to figure out how to break even and it’s PE is sky-high (or will be).

    Also cash is a position.

    [ Edited: 02 February 2012 01:44 AM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.