Does anyone feel that AAPL will stay below 460 by Feb 12 expiration?

Welcome to AFB.

Maybe?

AAPL is prone to zombie trading periods and, as lovemyipad likes to say, WTF sales.  I don’t think the market really knows what to think yet.  They’re still shellshocked by the results and an EPS number that pretty much no one in the world even dreamed of.  It’s unpredictable trading (market environment notwithstanding) when (1) Apple has never traded at this multiple level, yet here it still is; (2) multiple compression is ongoing; and (3) the numbers have sent everyone back to the drawing board.

With the expiration on the 18th and the annual meeting on the 23rd, I think we are looking at a pullback before then, maybe late this week or early next…consolidation for a few days and then a run into the OE date based on speculation that something (dividend/buyback) is happening on the 23rd.

I don’t think we pull back below 435…JMHO

There’s got to be a pullback happening sometime soon… AAPL has put out phenomenal numbers before… A pullback seems likely to happen soon…

Sorry, I was trying to indicate FEB Expiration 2012.

Red Shirt,

What range do you see AAPL at for it’s pullback… 440-450?

There’s phenomenal and then there’s PHENOMENAL. 

It really all depends on your perspective.  Are you a chart type, a fundamentals type, Elliott Wave, Ichimoku Cloud person, swing trader, momentum trader, bull, bear…?

Currently have a put spread of 465-460… I feel stuck and nervous…lol…

*shrug*  I have a 455/445 Feb bear put spread out there as a hedge myself.

I’m thinking should I get out and take my losses… Unfortunately I have vested way too much in to this to lose it all…lol… Then I feel like if I just wait till the end of this week or next week… There’s hope to see 440… I just want to recover my losses at this point…

agileandswift - 30 January 2012 07:37 PM

Currently have a put spread of 465-460… I feel stuck and nervous…lol…

Hi and welcome, agileandswift!  We should have a better idea by the end of this week.

agileandswift, this is non-advice, but…did you bet the farm on that move?

Since you’re trading bear put spreads, the answer is obvious:  Of course not!  So don’t worry about it.

If you want to buy some time, you can roll it out to the next month to give yourself some breathing room?

That implies legging in/out of vertical spreads experience.  (Excuse me a moment, the room is spinning again…)

Mav - 30 January 2012 07:48 PM

That implies legging in/out of vertical spreads experience.  (Excuse me a moment, the room is spinning again…)

Nonono, not legging!  Intact spreads only.  You can either do a direct roll where you close one spread and open another, and the trades are simultaneous on the same ticket.  Or just close the one spread (intact) and open the other spread (intact) in two trades.

Not the entire farm, but lets say 80 out of 100 acres…