Feb 12 Expiration

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    Posted: 30 January 2012 09:01 PM #16

    I think we test 460 and stall, then probably fall until just before Feb 12.  Agilandswift you should be both agile and swift in this case!

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2012 09:05 PM #17

    A, IMHO there is a good chance we’ll top this week…but that *could* be 468…I don’t know.  I’m speculating tomorrow we see more upside, and by Wednesday we start pulling back.  But I trade what I see, not what I expect to see—and knowing when to adjust a trade and when to leave it alone…that’s tough sometimes.

    Another possibility to consider for damage control…if it looks like we’re rocketing tomorrow, you CAN exit and take your current losses rather than compounding them, then RE-enter when a top is confirmed and you have more certainty.

    If you preserve capital, you live to fight another day.

    [ Edited: 30 January 2012 09:07 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Posted: 30 January 2012 09:27 PM #18

    agileandswift - 31 January 2012 12:08 AM

    Does anyone feel that AAPL will stay below 460 by Feb 12 expiration?

    Looking at AAPL’s trading history, post January earnings for the last 8 years, it has never held so close to day after intraday high, nor dropped so little in relation to that high.

    Wednesday Low $443.73
    Thursday Low $443.14
    Friday Low $443.77
    Monday Low $445.39 with an intraday high near Wednesday’s intraday high.

    The predominant dynamic in those prior periods was guidance for the March quarter (excepting fiscal 2009).  In 8 of 8 years Apple revenue declined from December quarter levels during the March quarter.  In 7 of 8 years my own metric of Institution Sentiment shows Sentiment going negative the day after earnings, and following further each day thereafter.  That is except 2009, but that was a reaction to the market hitting bottom and recoiling upward taking all boats with it.

    This year AAPL’s Institutional Sentiment, post January earnings, was positive (first time in 9 years) and is going higher (so far).

    I do see AAPL Closing above $460 on expiry (new all time high).  It should be noted that a new all time high, (excepting day after January earnings) has never been established in the March quarter.  In my opinion this year truly is different from all other periods, and nothing with regard to positive Apple/AAPL performance should be discounted.

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  • Posted: 30 January 2012 09:31 PM #19

    agileandswift - 31 January 2012 12:23 AM

    There’s got to be a pullback happening sometime soon…

    Why?  Is it a law?

    AAPL has put out phenomenal numbers before… A pullback seems likely to happen soon…

    Don’t be so sure.  Like I almost did last week, this year you could lose big on that kind of bet.

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  • Posted: 30 January 2012 09:34 PM #20

    agileandswift - 31 January 2012 12:45 AM

    I’m thinking should I get out and take my losses… Unfortunately I have vested way too much in to this to lose it all…lol… Then I feel like if I just wait till the end of this week or next week… There’s hope to see 440… I just want to recover my losses at this point...

    FATAL MISTAKE ALERT!!!  ALWAYS, always, live to fight another day.

    Edited to add:  Lovey, you and I are on the same page.

    [ Edited: 30 January 2012 09:37 PM by Gregg Thurman ]

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    Posted: 30 January 2012 09:37 PM #21

    Thanks everyone…

    -Gregg Thurman, Don’t you think there’s going to be a pullback to 440 sometime between now and 2/10/2012? I can’t see that not happening… even with the spectacular performance AAPL has displayed with their earnings… I know the charts say bull, but the sellers have to see an exit at some point(I would think soon) to realize profit.

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2012 09:48 PM #22

    Gregg Thurman - 31 January 2012 01:27 AM

    It should be noted that a new all time high, (excepting day after January earnings) has never been established in the March quarter.  In my opinion this year truly is different from all other periods, and nothing with regard to positive Apple/AAPL performance should be discounted.

    Gregg, FEB’11, though, right?

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2012 11:32 PM #23

    lovemyipad - 31 January 2012 01:05 AM

    ... I trade what I see, not what I expect to see ...

    Only if you can see through the fog, is it a bear or bull over there?  All I see is a silhouette that keeping in shape.


    agile and swift,

    Compare all these charts:

    Current situation.

    Late Apr 2007.

    Jan 2005.

    Your best hope is it is not like late Apr 2007 or Jan 2005.  Pray that it is like late Jul 2010.  Do you have the balls to hold it when AAPL is $469?  $473?  $480?  If not, close now.  If I’m you, I would close now and live to fight another day.  Frankly, I’m expecting the rally to continue till $480.

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    Posted: 30 January 2012 11:47 PM #24

    Mace - 31 January 2012 03:32 AM
    lovemyipad - 31 January 2012 01:05 AM

    ... I trade what I see, not what I expect to see ...

    Only if you can see through the fog, is it a bear or bull over there?  All I see is a silhouette that keeping in shape.

    Wait, and it will reveal itself. wink

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2012 11:50 PM #25

    lovemyipad - 31 January 2012 03:47 AM
    Mace - 31 January 2012 03:32 AM
    lovemyipad - 31 January 2012 01:05 AM

    ... I trade what I see, not what I expect to see ...

    Only if you can see through the fog, is it a bear or bull over there?  All I see is a silhouette that keeping in shape.

    Wait, and it will reveal itself. wink

    I don’t care whether it is bear or bull, I’m worry that it is charging at me :bugeyed:.

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    Posted: 31 January 2012 12:09 AM #26

    agileandswift - 31 January 2012 12:37 AM

    Currently have a put spread of 465-460… I feel stuck and nervous…lol…

    Stuck and nervous, eh?

    How long have you been trading aapl?  I wouldn’t put one that type of bet without a LOT of first hand experience or as a hedge. JMO ~~~~~ 

      JohnG

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2012 12:22 AM #27

    Mace - 31 January 2012 03:50 AM

    I don’t care whether it is bear or bull, I’m worry that it is charging at me :bugeyed:.

    Just step aside then.  Don’t get in its way, and you will be fine. smile

         
  • Posted: 31 January 2012 12:26 AM #28

    lovemyipad - 31 January 2012 01:48 AM
    Gregg Thurman - 31 January 2012 01:27 AM

    It should be noted that a new all time high, (excepting day after January earnings) has never been established in the March quarter.  In my opinion this year truly is different from all other periods, and nothing with regard to positive Apple/AAPL performance should be discounted.

    Gregg, FEB’11, though, right?

    I missed that one.  Not surprising, that quarter was the first and only Q2 that Apple guided higher than they did for Q1 (8 years).

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  • Posted: 31 January 2012 12:30 AM #29

    agileandswift - 31 January 2012 01:37 AM

    Thanks everyone…

    -Gregg Thurman, Don’t you think there’s going to be a pullback to 440 sometime between now and 2/10/2012? I can’t see that not happening… even with the spectacular performance AAPL has displayed with their earnings… I know the charts say bull, but the sellers have to see an exit at some point(I would think soon) to realize profit.

    Anything is possible, but with the floor that was set last week, I find anything below $443 improbable.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
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    Posted: 31 January 2012 04:32 AM #30

    Be as careful as you can, always, and be nimble whenever possible.  This market is unbelievably unpredictable.

    Just ask a bunch of my put spread hedges lately.  They’re more like “count against any gains I’m lucky enough to have this year” now…

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