Yes, we are all very bullish about AAPL.  We know the forecasts etc. etc.

But, the stark reality is that day after day since the earnings, AAPL is vastly under-performing the market.  Like today. 

So, we all have an opportunity cost by waiting for AAPL to start moving.

Even though I’m very bullish on Apple, isn’t it smarter to sell my long APPL stock, use the money elsewhere and then return to APPL when it shows some sign of life…?

utvi - 01 February 2012 03:47 PM

Yes, we are all very bullish about AAPL.  We know the forecasts etc. etc.

But, the stark reality is that day after day since the earnings, AAPL is vastly under-performing the market.  Like today. 

So, we all have an opportunity cost by waiting for AAPL to start moving.

Even though I’m very bullish on Apple, isn’t it smarter to sell my long APPL stock, use the money elsewhere and then return to APPL when it shows some sign of life…?

What you talking about, Willis?

That is the opposite of the stark reality, as you can see below.

The right side of this graph shows how Apple has been performing relative to the market since earnings

At what price do you propose to get back into AAPL? 

470 trending up? trending down?
440 trending up? trending down?

I think short term fluctuations do not change the medium and long term story, and it’s safer to just stay in with moderate exposure.

Let’s clear this up:  AAPL underperforming the market for one day does NOT make for the whole year. 

If at all possible, I wouldn’t want to see an AFB member ever making a comment like “AAPL is underperforming the _market_” because of one day’s action.  It’s too myopic.

Also, AAPL has not underperformed the indices in a calendar year since 2008. 

AAPL is not an AMZN or NFLX.  It’s not a high-beta stock.

There are ways to make money in other stocks and ways to make money in AAPL.  It’s all risk/reward and tradeoffs.

1.  As I said, I was only talking about “SINCE earnings” - so, only the last few days.  Please re-read my post.  I was not even including the jump up on the day after earnings.

2.  Of course, AAPL is not like many other much more volatile stocks.  But, it is still a stock.  It does not go up in a straight line.

Ok, let’s just assume for a minute:

a.  That not everyone on this board has a huge portfolio.  They might only have a few stocks, of which AAPL is one;

b.  That AAPL may be relatively flat-lining, whether we want to compare it to the NAS100 or even it’s own stellar previous performance. 

Let’s just assume.  Then what?  It is always just buy-and-hold?  Or, is there an argument to be made to exit and re-enter?

BTW, don’t assume I’m just talking about short-term in-and-out.  It might even be medium term - let’s say till some news, like a date for the Ipad3 or some other catalyst…  That might be two months away or more…

Medium-term isn’t really two months to a buy and holder. 

That sounds about right for a more casual trader, though.

Hey, I’m a fairly active trader myself.  I have my common, but my, ahem, stock in trade is…well…trading.  And I’m more detached from AAPL trading than I’ve ever been so far this year.

utvi - 01 February 2012 04:42 PM

1. As I said, I was only talking about “SINCE earnings” - so, only the last few days.  Please re-read my post.  I was not even including the jump up on the day after earnings.

2.  Of course, AAPL is not like many other much more volatile stocks.  But, it is still a stock.  It does not go up in a straight line.

Ok, let’s just assume for a minute:

a.  That not everyone on this board has a huge portfolio.  They might only have a few stocks, of which AAPL is one;

b.  That AAPL may be relatively flat-lining, whether we want to compare it to the NAS100 or even it’s own stellar previous performance. 

Let’s just assume.  Then what?  It is always just buy-and-hold?  Or, is there an argument to be made to exit and re-enter?

BTW, don’t assume I’m just talking about short-term in-and-out.  It might even be medium term - let’s say till some news, like a date for the Ipad3 or some other catalyst…  That might be two months away or more…

It is not under performing since earnings though.  You are incorrect in that statement.

To me, it’s clear:  Apple is under-performing the NAS and will keep doing so until there is a catalyst to drive the stock higher.

When that will happen is anyone’s guess.