How Will FaceBook fare?

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    Posted: 03 February 2012 11:50 AM

    4 Reasons Facebook Might Flop

    Schwarz has some good points, I thought.

         
  • Posted: 03 February 2012 11:57 AM #1

    It certainly has a lot of good things going for it. 1) 1B in profit, 3B in Rev, 50%+ growth.
    It is too early to tell if it is going to flop. It should continue to do well first six months or a year after IPO. I suspect they have “new” things ready to be unveiled. Think of how everyone thought AAPL will suffer as iPod growth was slowing in 2006.

    I am long and considering buying PRMTX as a play for FB.

    Any thoughts?

         
  • Posted: 03 February 2012 11:58 AM #2

    one more thing.. Valuation is a big unknown but we all know that it can stay irrational eg. AMZN(high) and AAPL (low).

         
  • Posted: 03 February 2012 12:02 PM #3

    In the long run, people won’t like Google or Facebook knowing so much about them
    and selling it to other businesses. And this could be so dangerous in countries where
    new dictatorship gain power.
    I really think Apple is wise not to be in this kind of “social”
    I advise my children not to be on Facebook or Google “services”.

         
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    Posted: 03 February 2012 03:14 PM #4

    Hamourabi - 03 February 2012 04:02 PM

    In the long run, people won’t like Google or Facebook knowing so much about them
    and selling it to other businesses. And this could be so dangerous in countries where
    new dictatorship gain power.
    I really think Apple is wise not to be in this kind of “social”
    I advise my children not to be on Facebook or Google “services”.

    You think like my iWife.  She is not on FB, only me.  I’m an open :oops: book.  Well, I do like Mark Zuckerberg, assuming what he said is true, serving the customers first and foremost and make $ to build better services.  Very noble of him, to pledge his wealth to WB/BG’s philanthropy fund.  If I have so much $, I would give $1B to each sibling and child.

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    Posted: 03 February 2012 04:26 PM #5

    Short run?  FB should do better than GRPN and ZNGA at least.

    Of course, that all depends on FB’s valuation out of the gate.

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    Posted: 03 February 2012 04:56 PM #6

    I wouldn’t touch it with your brokerage acct.

    Monetizing all those clicks won’t be easy, currently, $4.36 per user (struggling Yahoo and AOL make $7 and $10, respectively. GOOG makes $30). I’m on FB, as are most of my friends, and not one of them has ever spent one penny on FB. And, like myself, most have banner ad blocking software.

    And I’m sure the FB share price will be multiples higher that it deserves.

    “The valuation is 100 times earnings in a stock market that is trading at 12.”

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  • Posted: 03 February 2012 05:00 PM #7

    May be Zuckermann just intends to take the money and run..

         
  • Posted: 03 February 2012 05:03 PM #8

    He has a pledged good chunk of his wealth to WB/BG?s philanthropy fund.

         
  • Posted: 04 February 2012 01:16 AM #9

    Mace - 03 February 2012 07:14 PM

    If I have so much $, I would give $1B to each sibling and child.

    It’s more satisfying and ultimately more rewarding to plow your own road.  I wouldn’t think of denying my kids that adventure while allowing that everyone seems to have their own take on this.  The kids I knew growing up that had the future handed to them haven’t seemed to fare very well with a couple of rare exceptions.

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    Posted: 04 February 2012 04:09 AM #10

    BillH - 04 February 2012 05:16 AM
    Mace - 03 February 2012 07:14 PM

    If I have so much $, I would give $1B to each sibling and child.

    It’s more satisfying and ultimately more rewarding to plow your own road.  I wouldn’t think of denying my kids that adventure while allowing that everyone seems to have their own take on this.  The kids I knew growing up that had the future handed to them haven’t seemed to fare very well with a couple of rare exceptions.

    I completely agree.  I’m proud of having made it against the odds, and it’s part of who I am as a person.  It gives you self confidence as well as appreciation for an honest hard day’s work.  Parents tried to give me the best education and all the advantages they could, but both my siblings and I still had to work our butts off to get into good colleges, work half or full time while still in college to pay for tuition, and then work our way through the workforce.

    Being able to easily help family is a bonus though.  It’s not expected or demanded, but both my parents and siblings know financial help is just a call away.  I don’t worry about any of my siblings, they’re all doing well in their own way.  I mostly worry about my parents not wanting to ask for help if they need it, so I do need to force it on them sometimes, so to speak.  Helping them out in their retirement after they did so much for me and my siblings, is the least I can do.

         
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    Posted: 04 February 2012 11:31 PM #11

    I agree with AT about FB, probably way over valued but we’ll see.

    I want my kids to be entrepreneurs, not afraid to take chances in life. Most of the rags to riches stories in technology had strong support systems. There’s a happy medium in there somewhere. Getting all the kids through school with no debt so they can start their working lives on a good foot and hopefully start investing way before pops ever did!

         
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    Posted: 05 February 2012 12:18 AM #12

    If I had to guess, I’d say FB does better short run than GRPN and ZNGA because it’s a much stronger company.

    Facebook the company seems to have good prospects.  But longer-term I wonder about growth potential and how FB the stock will do.  Google has proven it can scale.  But what about Facebook?  Most users won’t pay FB a dime; any and all revenue will be from those mostly lousy ads on the side.  And look out if the ads invade mobile devices!  You never know if that’ll open the door to more social networking disruption.

    [ Edited: 05 February 2012 12:23 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 03 May 2012 02:07 AM #13

    Facebook set a date for its IPO, and roadshow will begin as early as the upcoming Monday.
    Company is valued by some at 100bln, while quarterly revenue has been decelerating for quite a while…
    people agree that their biz model is not up to their valuation, and that selling more data would mean less privacy for its users. any bets? any surprises FB should come up with prior to the IPO?

    on the other hand, ZNGA jumped 5% yesterday, as it did back in February when FB filed with SEC
    I opened some June $8 calls 2 days ago, which are up 50% :D

    how will these two companies fare?

         
  • Posted: 17 July 2012 09:36 AM #14

    Neat article.

    http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427972/the-facebook-fallacy/

         
  • Posted: 17 July 2012 01:24 PM #15

    Facebook, to me, is another AOL.  It is yet another effort to put a corral around a part of the internet and monetize it.  These efforts always depend on people who aren’t technically savvy enough to use the existing internet tools that accomplish the same things.  Eventually, the base technology gets simplified and people drift away from the restrictive sandbox that in the beginning was an exciting novelty because it was suddenly easy to do what had been difficult (e.g. post pictures on line).

    I expect FB to begin to level off and fade shortly.  I wouldn’t touch it as an investment.