libranca - 04 February 2012 06:47 PM

Mav - 04 February 2012 01:42 PM

Guidance is down by $4B Revs and $0.80 EPS sequentially. 

My early estimates are organically grown and minimally processed, but it’s hard to laugh off the $4B drop in guidance and, say, estimate a $45.5B rev Q2.

Comparing sequential guidance did not work in FY11Q4. Remember Q4 guidance was higher than Q3 .

Comparing sequentially is too superficial.  Look for a 3, or more, quarter pattern between guidance and results. Then, probably most importantly, keep your mind open to the possibility that Apple can miss its estimates. I know that believing in that concept is sacrilege to some here, but I do not hold to the conspiracy theory that you can get several thousand investors to work in concert to hold AAPL down.

Gregg, where are you at right now?  I forget the exact revs number at the moment (a little under $40B) but my not-too-aggressive early EPS number is just shy of $11.50.

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2012/02/papermaster/all/1

Two comments:

Interesting.  And why not sooner?

Burgess - 03 February 2012 09:33 PM

Congats on the article DT!

Great couple of weeks to be long apple.

To celebrate I’m off to the Wellington International Sevens, New Zealand’s biggest annual party.

Google “Wellington Sevens costumes” for a taste of what I’m seeing….

Looks like a normal day on Venice Beach Boardwalk…

Mav - 04 February 2012 08:02 PM

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2012/02/papermaster/all/1

Two comments:

Interesting.  And why not sooner?

What I’m thinking is how would MSFT server software work on an ARM architecture.  They’d have to cut a tremendous amount of fat from it.  This doesn’t look good for Intel.

Mav - 04 February 2012 07:38 PM

Gregg, where are you at right now?  I forget the exact revs number at the moment (a little under $40B) but my not-too-aggressive early EPS number is just shy of $11.50.

Subject to revision.

Unit Sales:
?Macs 4,602,000
?iPods 8,000,000
??iPhones 35,200,000
?iPads 11,500,000

??Revenue:
Mac 5,670,000,000
?iPod 1,320,000,000
?iPhone 23,056,000,000
?iPad 6,900,000,000
?Music ?? 2,200,000,000
?Peripherals 700,000,000
Software 779,000,000

Total Revenue: 40,625,000,000

??Gross Margin: 45%

OpEx: 3,025,000,000

??Operating Income: 15,459,375,000

OI&E: 200,000,000

??Income Before Taxes:? 15,659,375,000?

Taxes: 3,758,250,000

Net Income: 11,901,125,000

EPS: $12.62 with bias to $12.75

??Share Count: 943,000,000

The only three significant differences I have are GM (lower), OpEx (higher), and iPad (lower), because I’m starting conservative and waiting to see how the quarter develops.  I think $12.50+ will be a mild-to-moderately aggressive target in April - and attainable by Apple.  iPad 3 is the key.

Your net income ratio is aggressive at the moment, IMHO.

To heck with boring Super Bowl, I’m watching the more exciting Greek Tragedy!

UPDATE: Kathemirini reports on a Jean-Claude Juncker interview in Der Spiegel wherein he apparently says the same thing, that Greece’s choice is basically: Default or reform. The key thing here is that Euro leaders just don’t seem scared of default anymore. In this post LTRO world, Greece has lost its leverage.

Mav - 03 February 2012 09:16 PM

The goalposts are something like 70% haircut to bondholders, last I checked.

My ‘doom-n-gloom’ buddy is adamant that the bond holders will crash the system before taking that level of hair-cut. He’s betting on it, albeit with the meager holdings a doomster can muster. 

Meanwhile, I’m fat-dumn-happy holding aapl shares and deep LEAPS to the tune of an 80% equity “loading”. I was 90+% equity up until Thurs-Fri. swing batta batta batta

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

Insitutional holders in the USA and I suspect much of the world have had eight months to adjust portfolios to minimize direct exposure to a Greek default. Many pension funds I have knowledge of now hold fewer International equities, no foreign banks and fewer domestic banks (financials in general) than was the case eight months ago.

No surprises in the Greek situaiton recently and game theory has been played out ad naseum by large institutions, governments and bondholders.

Greece has no leverage and is being surrounded with reality…the bondholders are next.

I think the Eurozone has transitioned from “crisis” to “condition,” and conditions are manageable.

PED has a nice article on the Power of the Apple Stores in the last quarter…wow.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/05/charlie-wolf-the-launch-of-the-iphone-4s-sent-apple-store-sales-into-the-stratosphere/

johnG - 05 February 2012 11:33 AM

Mav - 03 February 2012 09:16 PM

The goalposts are something like 70% haircut to bondholders, last I checked.

My ‘doom-n-gloom’ buddy is adamant that the bond holders will crash the system before taking that level of hair-cut. He’s betting on it, albeit with the meager holdings a doomster can muster. 

Meanwhile, I’m fat-dumn-happy holding aapl shares and deep LEAPS to the tune of an 80% equity “loading”. I was 90+% equity up until Thurs-Fri. swing batta batta batta

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

First rule of investing: Protect your capital.

Crashing the system does not get them any money.  Period.  Taking a hair cut like that will be painful, but getting something back, as opposed to nothing, is the smart move, and in the end they will take it if there are no alternatives.

Gregg Thurman - 04 February 2012 09:01 PM

Mav - 04 February 2012 08:02 PM

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2012/02/papermaster/all/1

Two comments:

Interesting.  And why not sooner?

What I’m thinking is how would MSFT server software work on an ARM architecture.  They’d have to cut a tremendous amount of fat from it.  This doesn’t look good for Intel.

Why bother with MSFT? Several UNIX vendors support ARM just fine. Apple isn’t one of them yet, but it is just a recompile away.

That being said, the modern Windows kernel and tools should port just fine.