I’m looking at the daily and weekly chart and the big old’ gap keeps jumping out at me. The post earnings jump to 450 showed the mildest of retreats to 443.. And then we began a steady climb back to 459. Volume increased for several days running during the move from 443 to 453. Then we did a lower volume melt-up through Friday.

Lovey and others fear the gap, and past quarters would seem to justify that concern, as would many rules involved with TA.  Gregg and others feel, I believe, that we have a breakaway gap and many fundamental factors (ISM, product rollouts, china, cash use rumors) have built a floor under Apple’s price at 443 or so….( I apologize if I have misstated anyone’s views…just trying to get the main concepts and theories out there).

So, do we close “the gap”?

Fill the gap at 420?  Yes.  But only when Mr. Market assists.  Distance to travel=<10%.  Elapsed time=far less than calendar Q4 ‘11 correction.  Compare to distance travelled January ‘08 to January ‘09=>40%.  It is possible, likely, and could be relatively quick.  Long term holders on vacations may not notice unless their friends tell them.

No iPad 3 launch by March or severe negative news could cause a gap fill.

Personally I can’t see AAPL dipping much under 435 at present momentum, but I’m playing it safer.  Looking to Q2 earnings, and way past, with conservative-ish May and Jan bull call spreads and 50% trading cash.

I doesn’t have to be something Apple related to take it down. Look at the roller coaster ride last year at the World level.

Exactly.

I just get so tired of reciting Murphy’s laws 100 different ways.  “Severe negative news” isn’t too shabby as a catch-all.

Where are you on this, Ensign?  Personally, I think it’ll take no iPad 3 to send us much below 440.

Charts, shmarts, we open above 460 on Monday and close at a new ATH this week.

Greece maybe back in the headlines Monday…..could cause that Gap fill.

http://news.yahoo.com/greece-pushes-deal-lenders-contested-reforms-113626928.html

JDSoCal - 04 February 2012 03:34 PM

Charts, shmarts, we open above 460 on Monday and close at a new ATH this week.

Hey!!  JD copied my homework!!  He’s going with my 468 post-earnings AH gap fill theory!!

Red, you stated my views perfectly.  It’s not so much a “conviction” as a “suspicion.” 

My current thinking, subject to change:

Until proven otherwise, we’re still in our upwave; and we’re oscillating toward resistance.  Whenever this upwave completes and a downwave begins, we’ll likely retest support around 443.  VIX might tip us off.

I suspect we’ll have our quarterly WTF sale.  Not sure when or what price, but probably when we least expect it and low enough to make us say “WTF?!”

At the moment, I’m leaning toward a bull market for 2012, and paying the pied piper next year.

Infohunter - 04 February 2012 04:02 PM

Greece maybe back in the headlines Monday…..could cause that Gap fill.

http://news.yahoo.com/greece-pushes-deal-lenders-contested-reforms-113626928.html

Chicken Little went away for the holidays and still hasn’t returned.  He hasn’t read any memos about Greece.  Not sure if he’ll get this one.

Meanwhile, Mr. Market’s at Disney, eating cotton candy by the truckload.

The 2011 shockwaves did “help” in one respect - giving bulls one more year to turn bear.

I think 2013 could be a half-decent year, but so much has to go right, it doesn’t seem likely at the moment.

lovemyipad - 04 February 2012 07:23 PM

Infohunter - 04 February 2012 04:02 PM

Greece maybe back in the headlines Monday…..could cause that Gap fill.

http://news.yahoo.com/greece-pushes-deal-lenders-contested-reforms-113626928.html

Chicken Little went away for the holidays and still hasn’t returned.  He hasn’t read any memos about Greece.  Not sure if he’ll get this one.

Meanwhile, Mr. Market’s at Disney, eating cotton candy by the truckload.

Maybe the world is just inoculated against/numb to this news…even the possibilities.  We’ve been hearing about everything that could go wrong for what, close to 2 years now?

Mav - 04 February 2012 07:32 PM

lovemyipad - 04 February 2012 07:23 PM

Infohunter - 04 February 2012 04:02 PM

Greece maybe back in the headlines Monday…..could cause that Gap fill.

http://news.yahoo.com/greece-pushes-deal-lenders-contested-reforms-113626928.html

Chicken Little went away for the holidays and still hasn’t returned.  He hasn’t read any memos about Greece.  Not sure if he’ll get this one.

Meanwhile, Mr. Market’s at Disney, eating cotton candy by the truckload.

Maybe the world is just inoculated against/numb to this news…even the possibilities.  We’ve been hearing about everything that could go wrong for what, close to 2 years now?

Hopefully you’re right.

The President and Finance Minister of Greece have set a deadline for tomorrow night over negotiations that should have been decided 3 weeks ago.  The problem isn’t with the creditors.  It’s with the rest of the Euro countries.

It would help if the shoe just dropped already.  Let’s have the decisive action and see where to go from there.  Well, at least it’ll probably be this year.  Maybe.

Mav - 04 February 2012 01:47 PM

No iPad 3 launch by March or severe negative news could cause a gap fill.

Personally I can’t see AAPL dipping much under 435 at present momentum, but I’m playing it safer.  Looking to Q2 earnings, and way past, with conservative-ish May and Jan bull call spreads and 50% trading cash.

Mav

Based on the guidance, do you expect ipad3 launch in March? 

I’m in the >March release camp mostly based on the “modest” guidance.

  regards
      JohnG

I’m no expert nor can I even pretend to be one on the Internet

If I had to guess I’d say no iPad 3 in the quarter based on revenue guidance and a very persuasive report of no February Apple events from Jim Dalrymple, who had a perfect record last year (though some of his calls like “not June” weren’t all that instructive). 

The lack of future product transition comment by Oppenheimer during the CC isn’t a hint in itself because there was no mention of any transition last year.  OTOH, strong GM guidance may be a hint of no iPad 3s diluting margins.

A drop below 443 would mean an ex-cash PE ratio of under 10 (which is my “what-the-hell-is-everybody-crazy-on-crack-im-buying-all-I-can” metric for AAPL).

Absent a catastrophe, any drop to 420 would be very short, and finding every spare bit of change under the couch cushions to invest in AAPL will be my plan.