It’s Super Bowl Sunday. Will it be a super Monday for AAPL after Friday’s 1% rise?

Up day. 

...as surely as fictional not-Apple line sitters will get “Samsunged” (and little will change )...

...the same way BMW’s reminder that the new 3-series has two (count ‘em, TWO!) seat memory won’t really resonate with the audience.  Remember when Super Bowl ads were good?

If the market had an overreaction to positive jobs data Friday, we could possibly see some countertrend reaction Monday, maybe some profit-taking. 

On the other hand, if too many frontrunners banked on this and positioned short, it might not take much buying pressure to squeeze yet another upward burst..and continue the low-volume melt up.

At this point, the trend is still up, and I’m inclined to think dips will be bought…until proven otherwise.

Just me, but if the market were to correct 10% at some point this year, I don’t think AAPL would follow by anywhere near the same percentage.

I’m still banking on seeing 480s before any major pullback.

Not being a numbers guy I’d like some feedback on data I’ve been playing with…  My computations show that right now Apple’s cash is about 23.5% of the share price, which I am seeing as about 2-3 percentage points higher than the average of the previous four quarters.

I know there are no “should be’s”  as in Apple’s share price “should be” ____ ...

But, if AAPL share price appreciated to a level more in line with recent price-to-cash-on-hand ratio levels, I’m figuring it “should be” at about 500 to 525.

Can someone who is a “numbers guy/gal” play around with this and tell me if my math seems to be in the ballpark?

I think there’s so much money sitting in bonds earning negative interest after inflation, it really has no where to go but into stocks. Pension funds, seniors, and investors have to be in the market to earn a decent return. Barring a global event, I think the market goes much higher.  The s&p has been flat for almost 12 years, companies profits have increased over this time period but hasn’t been reflected in the market.  I would love to earn just a safe 4 or 5% return for retirement, but I am going to have to wait a few years for interest rates to rise. In the mean time I will be buying stocks along with all the other baby boomers. The market will drive aapl much higher. This could be the year!

balesfam - 05 February 2012 04:31 PM

I think there’s so much money sitting in bonds earning negative interest after inflation, it really has no where to go but into stocks. Pension funds, seniors, and investors have to be in the market to earn a decent return. Barring a global event, I think the market goes much higher.  The s&p has been flat for almost 12 years, companies profits have increased over this time period but hasn’t been reflected in the market.  I would love to earn just a safe 4 or 5% return for retirement, but I am going to have to wait a few years for interest rates to rise. In the mean time I will be buying stocks along with all the other baby boomers. The market will drive aapl much higher. This could be the year!

Thank you Bales.  This is what I said about a week, or so, ago.  AAPL appreciation had stalled because investment capital was being put elsewhere (bonds) causing an investor (equity)  liquidity issue, and by Apple missing its numbers.

When those two factors are reconciled (I believe that is happening now), AAPL’s coiled spring is going to unwind.

Mercel, after the SuperBowl, it’s time to bring that coiled spring chart out again!

Taking a break from Madonna, I note Asia is up across the board, between half a percent and 1.5%.

In edit, Clint Eastwood still rocks…..

Red Shirted Ensign - 05 February 2012 08:18 PM

Taking a break from Madonna, I note Asia is up across the board, between half a percent and 1.5%.

In edit, Clint Eastwood still rocks…..

Couldn’t agree more - Eastwood is the MAN!

Let’s see if Euro catches on.  Asia markets were just reacting to Friday, right?

Futures are still red.

Super Bowl is fairly good so far.

Mav - 05 February 2012 08:35 PM

Let’s see if Euro catches on.  Asia markets were just reacting to Friday, right?

They are watching Europe too….but it has lost its sense of imminent disaster.

omacvi - 05 February 2012 08:55 PM

Futures are still red.

Super Bowl is fairly good so far.

Almost exactly the same finish as 4 years ago.

Monday

R4       471.73
  midpoint   469.51
R3       467.29
  midpoint   465.07
R2       462.85
  midpoint   462.06
R1       461.27
  midpoint   459.84
PP       458.41
  midpoint   457.62
S1       456.83
  midpoint   455.40
S2       453.97
  midpoint   451.75
S3       449.53
  midpoint   447.31
S4       445.09

willrob - 05 February 2012 10:33 PM

Monday

R4       471.73
  midpoint   469.51
R3       467.29
  midpoint   465.07
R2       462.85
  midpoint   462.06
R1       461.27
  midpoint   459.84
PP       458.41
  midpoint   457.62
S1       456.83
  midpoint   455.40
S2       453.97
  midpoint   451.75
S3       449.53
  midpoint   447.31
S4       445.09

Willrob, what’s the formula(s) you use to calculate this table?