The Apple iTV…

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    Posted: 06 February 2012 10:44 PM

    ...is closer than we think to release:

    http://www.macrumors.com/2012/02/06/rogers-and-bce-already-have-the-apple-itv-in-their-labs-controlled-with-voice-and-hand-gestures/

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    Posted: 06 February 2012 10:53 PM #1

    also interesting that they are looking to partner with cable & broadband/wireless comapnies for launch…could we see the Apple iTV subsidised by a 2 year cable contract?

    How would that be for shaking up a Commoditized industry?

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    Posted: 06 February 2012 10:58 PM #2

    Burgess - 07 February 2012 02:53 AM

    How would that be for shaking up a Commoditized industry?

    Impossible! Never been done before!

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    Posted: 06 February 2012 11:48 PM #3

    Burgess - 07 February 2012 02:44 AM

    ...is closer than we think to release:

    http://www.macrumors.com/2012/02/06/rogers-and-bce-already-have-the-apple-itv-in-their-labs-controlled-with-voice-and-hand-gestures/

    If true…whoa!

    Wonder how they’d handle an on-screen keyboard without an input device (though I’d assume an iOS device would work just fine).  The TV just knows where your finger’s pointing?  Tracks like the iOS simulator?  Distance/lighting limitations (would it work at night with low lighting?)

    Would it creep people out that theoretically, the Apple TV has some version of video feed on its users some or all of the time?

    [ Edited: 06 February 2012 11:50 PM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 07 February 2012 12:02 AM #4

    Here is the Globe and Mail story

         
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    Posted: 08 February 2012 08:39 PM #5

    Lets get some estimates going, what do you think for 1st year sales potential of the as yet unconfirmed iTVs?

    I’m thinking 10 million units at an ASP of $1250 (based on 3 SKUs costing between $999 - $1499). gross margin of 40%.

    Which gives us $12.5 billion in revenue & $5 billion in gross profit for year 1.

    Double both those figures for year 2 sales.

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    Posted: 08 February 2012 11:20 PM #6

    I think the overall sales number will depend on when the iTV get released.

    I don’t think Apple builds things and hope they sell a certain number.  They know ahead of time how many they will make and sale simply by looking at historical data for iPod, iPHones, iPads, and Airs.

    There are only a certain number of people that would buy an iTV right away.  That numbers is a percentage of overall iOS and Mac users.  That overall number is growing rapidly.  So the longer they wai the bigger the number will be for first time buyers of iTV.

    I think that they have the techonolgy to release it but not the contracts necesarry to make it a success.  So I am willing to bet that the first iTV will not come out for another 18 months.  Time is on their side and the technology will get even better by that time.

    I say they will sell a small amount like 2 million in the first quarter.  An iTV is like an Air.  It will take 4 years for it to really take off.

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2012 12:09 AM #7

    The part I don’t get about all of this is why Apple needs to build the whole TV instead of putting all the innovations into Apple TV 3. That would make the addressable market much larger, as it would enhance most existing TV’s. Can’t say that a 42” TV does much for me, no matter what it does. On the other hand, give me something to enhance my 110” front projection system and you get my interest.  As a consumer and investor, I will be disappointed if this new experience Apple is planning works only if you buy an entire new TV, and a relatively small one at that.

    [ Edited: 09 February 2012 12:13 AM by Lstream ]      
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    Posted: 09 February 2012 12:13 AM #8

    I realized the other day when I was talking with my wife about replacing the 1993 era Panasonic compact stereo (which actually sounds pretty good - bi amped speakers!) with a new stereo - and my interest in getting a digital projector to watch movies on and show images that…. well an Apple TV might do the trick for all of this.  Because it will be connected, you will be able to stream to and from it, it will have iTunes and all my media, that in essence it will be a stereo and home entertainment and general display device all in one itself.  And I hadn’t really though of it that way before.  All of a sudden I saw the value in this new device.  BTW we have never had (or wanted) a TV (I use my 30”  Apple cinema monitor to show movies on).

    So there you have it: I am going to wait and be one of the first buyers of this mythical iTV!  Might still need to get a nice pair of powered speakers to go with it.

    I do think however that the media delivery / contracts are the big deal for the device and most people.  If Apple needs to make some significant new progress in this type of arrangement to make a truly innovated device that people will buy.  That is the hard nut.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2012 12:18 AM #9

    An actual Apple television should probably be classified as a “hobby” just to keep expectations in check.

    Since Apple has a bunch of A5s on order, I don’t see why they couldn’t be put to use in an Apple TV 2.  I don’t see AAPL doing away with the Apple TV just yet, considering how even a hugely successful Apple TV set would need at least several quarters to establish a significant foothold.

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    Posted: 09 February 2012 12:33 AM #10

    Lstream - 09 February 2012 04:09 AM

    The part I don’t get about all of this is why Apple needs to build the whole TV instead of putting all the innovations into Apple TV 3. That would make the addressable market much larger, as it would enhance most existing TV’s. Can’t say that a 42” TV does much for me, no matter what it does. On the other hand, give me something to enhance my 110” front projection system and you get my interest.  As a consumer and investor, I will be disappointed if this new experience Apple is planning works only if you buy an entire new TV, and a relatively small one at that.

    Because apple only managed to sell a few million of these last year, and they are low margin devices at very low prices.

    The fact is more people would likely buy an Apple HDTV for $999 (with a fat 40%/$400 margin), than are currently buying the $99 set top box (with a miniscule margin).

    Apple probably earns more on the iPod shuffle than it earns on selling appletv set top boxes.

    dont get me wrong, I love my apple tv box, but using it with my 55” plasma is the worst experience in the world (I dont want to have to use two remotes! I dont want to have to switch hdmi ports to use Airplay!, where is the facetime camera!, give me Siri voice integration!, Panasonics UI & industrial design are both horrible!)

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  • Posted: 09 February 2012 01:31 AM #11

    Lstream - 09 February 2012 04:09 AM

    The part I don’t get about all of this is why Apple needs to build the whole TV instead of putting all the innovations into Apple TV 3. That would make the addressable market much larger, as it would enhance most existing TV’s. Can’t say that a 42” TV does much for me, no matter what it does. On the other hand, give me something to enhance my 110” front projection system and you get my interest.  As a consumer and investor, I will be disappointed if this new experience Apple is planning works only if you buy an entire new TV, and a relatively small one at that.

    Apple is NOT going to just sell a 42” iTV.  I’m sure we’ll sizes in the 46” - 52” range.

    Secondly, Apple doesn’t realize any significant margin in Apple TV.  And people don’t WANT another peripheral —the TV needs to be INTEGRATED from the ground up.  I think Apple can produce an “All-in-One” iTV for $1,500 w/margins that see the 30% level.

    The Apple TV is fine for what it is but it won’t achieve what Apple can accomplish in the reinvented TV soon to land in our living rooms.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2012 02:05 AM #12

    Right on Mercel.

    Everyone keeps thinking about this being a TV.  I think it will do so much more that watching TV will be secondary.  I see this device as the central hub that once was the computer.  It will replace the computer over time, because it will allow voice and had motions to control so many things we do on a computer.  Everyone keeps talking about content, which I think is critical to for huge sales because most want a better TV, however it will be designed to help run our lives, explore, create and communicate in ways that we have only seen in the movies. 

    We were blown away with the first iPhone.  I think this device will blow us away and it will be much more expensive then a traditional 46” HDTV.

    The critics called the iPad and oversized iPhone.  Physically one can say that, but the iPad does so much more then an iPHone.  They will call this an Apple TV but it will do a ton more things then just watching TV.

    So I think it will see limited sales initially.  There were only so many folks that bought an iPhone at $600 when they could get a cell phone for free.  Now 5 years later you could get an iPHone for free.  Same with the iTV.  It will be expensive and over time drop in price and be available to millions more.

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2012 02:07 AM #13

    Lstream, same reason as the iMac. Less can go wrong, easier to set up and use, plays to your advantages if you are vertically integrated.

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2012 02:40 AM #14

    omacvi - 09 February 2012 06:05 AM

    So I think it will see limited sales initially.  There were only so many folks that bought an iPhone at $600 when they could get a cell phone for free.  Now 5 years later you could get an iPHone for free.  Same with the iTV.  It will be expensive and over time drop in price and be available to millions more.

    Well, might AAPL make a deal with the internet/cable providers, including a subsidy model?  DirecTV and Comcast are going at it for market share…partnering with one could help Apple keep its margins.

    Just idle speculation.  But TV needs reinvention so bad I think Apple will sell all it can make.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2012 02:48 AM #15

    Mercel - 09 February 2012 06:40 AM
    omacvi - 09 February 2012 06:05 AM

    So I think it will see limited sales initially.  There were only so many folks that bought an iPhone at $600 when they could get a cell phone for free.  Now 5 years later you could get an iPHone for free.  Same with the iTV.  It will be expensive and over time drop in price and be available to millions more.

    Well, might AAPL make a deal with the internet/cable providers, including a subsidy model?  DirecTV and Comcast are going at it for market share…partnering with one could help Apple keep its margins.

    Just idle speculation.  But TV needs reinvention so bad I think Apple will sell all it can make.

    Maybe but I recall we speculated the same formula for the iPad.  We thought magazine and news paper subscriptions would subsidize the cost for the consumer.

    I don’t see this as a win in anyway for the Internet / cable providers.  The content folks won’t be happy either.  This product does not make the pie bigger but forces everyone to share smaller pieces.  This is the part that I don’t think SJ has been able to crack yet.  And this maybe the limited success that we could have with it initially.  Remember at first the iPod only worked on the Mac and how the iPhone was on one carrier only.

    If Apple can get two studios and one cable provider on board we could crack the window for the future.