Ipad 3 production

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    Posted: 27 February 2012 01:57 PM #46

    pats, there’s a dumb rumor on Tech Trader Daily “confirming” an A5X on iPad 3 because it’s gotta be Samsung supplying the chips and because it’s supposedly 32nm limited.

    The analyst didn’t notice that next-gen A15s can be fabbed on 32nm per that info you got from Samsung (?).  Assuming Apple isn’t already sourcing chips…quite satisfactorily from another source, what is 28nm really needed for as far as this year’s batch of chips?  If you’re going with “evolution of existing design” is a quad-core A9 still possible on 32nm just like an A15?

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    Posted: 27 February 2012 05:03 PM #47

    Mav - 27 February 2012 05:57 PM

    pats, there’s a dumb rumor on Tech Trader Daily “confirming” an A5X on iPad 3 because it’s gotta be Samsung supplying the chips and because it’s supposedly 32nm limited.

    The analyst didn’t notice that next-gen A15s can be fabbed on 32nm per that info you got from Samsung (?).  Assuming Apple isn’t already sourcing chips…quite satisfactorily from another source, what is 28nm really needed for as far as this year’s batch of chips?  If you’re going with “evolution of existing design” is a quad-core A9 still possible on 32nm just like an A15?


    I think the rumors have everyone frothing about nothing.  As I said earlier Apple really has three choices for the CPU design in the next SOC and they can name it whatever and that won’t change much.  As far as Foundry service the most likely choice is Samsung.  They have qualified both a 32NM and a 28NM process and the equipment to do 32NM or 28NM is the same.  As far as I see the CPU my first choice would be the dual core A15.  It is a more modern design and will outperform the A9. The challenge would be to get it built in time for the March launch.  Samsung has announce their new A15 based design due out the 2nd qtr, so we know Samsung can build the A15 at 32NM so it becomes a question of Apple’s design choice.  A second option would be to go with the quad A9, this would be using the intel tic/toc.  Same design but with more cores and a process shrink.  This could be built on the 32NM, another option would be to switch foundries to TSMC.  Apple,would need to redesign since Samsung and TSMC use different build up process for semiconductor layers, gate first vs gate last, which would mean that the SOC would need to meet the new design rules.  A third option would be a custom CPU using the ARM instruction set and Apple IP obtained from PA SEMI & Intrinsity built by Samsung or TSMC.

    As far as performance goes, Apple will ensure the next SOC is better then the last.  The extra pixels will require higher performance from the GPU more so then the CPU and I’m sure Apple engineering is capable of balancing all the requirements.

         
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    Posted: 27 February 2012 05:12 PM #48

    That’s why you’re the expert, pats.  smile

    Long story short then, either the tweaked Cortex-A9 or new A15 architectures can be run on a 32nm process.  So:  Nothing to see here, except for speculation (I’m particularly amused by the “evidence of pricier iPads?” rumor because some unaccountable guy probably just whipped up a spreadsheet.)

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    Posted: 27 February 2012 05:59 PM #49

    Article on macrumors today about both a “A5X” chip and a “A6” chip code found in iOS 5.1

    Perhaps the A5X is destined for the new 1080p capable Apple TV set top box, which could be unveiled alongside the A6 powered iPad 3.

    Would make sense - if you are running super high res apps on the iPad 3, it would be nice if the Apple TV set top box could support Airplay to a 1080p HDTV at something better than the 720p limit on the current A4 powered unit.

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  • Posted: 27 February 2012 06:34 PM #50

    If there is going to be a new product presentation on March 7, when is the latest they can send out invitations?  Needs to be in the next few days, I suppose!

         
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    Posted: 27 February 2012 07:45 PM #51

    ncgo4 - 27 February 2012 10:34 PM

    If there is going to be a new product presentation on March 7, when is the latest they can send out invitations?  Needs to be in the next few days, I suppose!

    Normally it’s about a week lead time of an event.

    Apple marches to its own drumbeat, but it doesn’t hurt that competitors are announcing products at Mobile World Congress this week, I’m sure apple will be pleased that the timing of its invite going out will likely inflict maximum damage on competitors available press coverage.

    After the invite arrives, the press will immediately launch into iPad 3 speculation, sucking oxygen away form any competitors announcements over the following week until the actual iPad 3 announcement happens.

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    Posted: 28 February 2012 11:46 AM #52

    What If Your Next TV Is a Tablet?

    Is iTV coming? Is the end in sight for the old-fashioned television? Who knows. Maybe Apple will introduce iTV as part of the expected iPad 3 launch event on March 7?it would certainly add to the excitement. To foresee all that, you?d have to know the ways of the Force.

    This thread is all about iPad hardware specs, but will there be software surprises too?

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    Posted: 28 February 2012 03:02 PM #53

    Could Siri be left out of iPad 3?

    Can’t look too much into media invites of course.  But, it wouldn’t be a deal breaker for me.

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    Posted: 01 March 2012 01:14 AM #54

    This rumor doesn’t go away:

    http://www.macrumors.com/2012/03/01/production-of-7-85-inch-ipad-rumored-for-3q-2012-at-the-earliest/

    Now it’s DigiTimes, and you know how I feel about them (rumor-wise), but since Mac Rumors gave it play, I think it’s in play.  What on Earth can a 7.8” iPad do better than the 9.7” one?  Fit in a bag, sure.  Otherwise, everything’s just…smaller.

    The other problem is segmentation.  Will you put the iPad 3’s processor into the iPad nano?  Of course not, the same way you wouldn’t put a Retina Display on a screen so small maybe ever.  So the iPad mini becomes the new enclosure for a maybe-tweaked version of yesteryear’s technology?  That would only work if the competition weren’t already stuffing today’s technology into smaller tablets.  And then there’s iPad Last Year and iPad nano being kind of the same if you have similar SoCs, feature sets and screen resolutions.  Huh?

    I’m not seeing it.  Apple doesn’t do the nano thing with iOS and I don’t see any need for a change, given the wild success of the 7” tablets that Steve so famously, and honestly accurately, slagged.

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    Posted: 01 March 2012 10:29 AM #55

    Crank up the FUD machines.  Digitimes is claiming

    Apple may be unable to ramp up supply of iPad 3 until 2Q12, say sources
    Siu Han, Taipei; Steve Shen, DIGITIMES [Thursday 1 March 2012]
    Apple may not unable to ramp up the supply of its next-generation iPads (iPad 3), which are expected to be launched at a company event on March 7, due to insufficient supply of high resolution displays, according to industry sources in the supply chain.

    The new iPad, which reportedly will come in 16GB and 32GB versions, will continue to be equipped with 9.7-inch panels but with a display resolution of 2048 by 1536 pixels (264ppi) compared to the previous standard of 1024 by 769 pixels, the sources noted.

    Although Apple has chosen Sharp to replace Chimei Innolux (CMI) as one of its three suppliers for the high resolution (QXGA) panels ? in addition to LG Display and Samsung Electronics, the whole supply chain has failed to substantially ramp up the supply of QXGA panels, the sources revealed.

    As a result, iPad 2 will remain the mainstream in shipments in the most part of the first quarter before shipments of iPad 3 start gaining momentum in the second quarter, the sources stated.

    If we look back at Sharp’s recent financial CC.    Sharp consolidated financial Results there are a couple charts which address production ramp for the new panels.  In the report the delay in ramp was identified and Sharp anticipated production ramp in Feb 2012.


    The Kameyama 2 Plant uses Gen 8 technology so each glass substrate is 85” x 96” and produce 100,000 glass substrates per month using the older a-Si.  The newer process results in lower production lets guess from the graph 50,000 substrates currently dedicated to IGZO, which can cut approximately 150 9.7? pieces per glass substrate.  Each display would require two glass substrates  So the Kameyama 2 plant at current production with perfect yields would be about 3.5M panels per month current.  Again based on the graph the ramp started in Q3 2011 so Sharp has had some time to work thru yield issues.  Also of note is the fact that Sharp took 50% of there Gen 10 plant off line (36,000 substrates) and plans to convert to IGZO starting 3rd Qtr of 2012.  This would make a nice Apple TV panel don’t you think :wink:

         
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    Posted: 01 March 2012 03:08 PM #56

    iPad SCM FUD.  What a huge surprise.

    What’s your thought on IGZO ramp initially pats?  Even if production is limited, you can be sure it didn’t start yesterday.

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    Posted: 01 March 2012 06:06 PM #57

    Mav - 01 March 2012 07:08 PM

    iPad SCM FUD.  What a huge surprise.

    What’s your thought on IGZO ramp initially pats?  Even if production is limited, you can be sure it didn’t start yesterday.

    We don’t know who will be making the panels, but the production capacity is ramping at Sharp according to their financials so either Sharp is making a material false statement, or Apple is not using Sharp or Digitimes is FOS.  I vote for Digitimes is wrong and Sharp is producing for Apple since Apple financed the plant conversion.  Remember that 3.9B downpayment mentioned by TC last year to unnamed suppliers for unnamed products.  The yield is the big question mark, but Apple wouldn’t be announcing if yields were extremely bad.  Also we likely have LG and CMI as additional suppliers so supplies might be tight at launch but Apple deals with this issue with every major launch.

         
  • Posted: 01 March 2012 11:14 PM #58

    I usually don?t put much cred with Digitimes, but the 16 and 32GB comment blows my mind as sheer craziness. Is there a flash shortage too? In fact, if there was a shortage due to the display, I?d hope Apple puts out a higher proportion of 64 and 128GB units for the good margins and the fact it?s easy to sell them during a shortage when it?s ?buy this unit or give it to the guy behind you and wait another 3 weeks?.

    RE: 7.85 iPad mini. I know several users of other tablets who rave about the 7? form factor. It may not be for me, but they actually list it as an advantage. Another thing to think about is how it would affect the iPod touch pricing. You?d be forced to push those prices down as well. That triggers a reduction for the Nano as well. I?d miss my margins.

    Tech question, what resolution does this supposed 7.85? version run at? I don?t think Apple would want to introduce another resolution here, so would it just be the original iPad res shrunk down? Does that seem reasonable with getting the sandpaper out for the fingers?

    Apple has changed it?s mind on ideas like this in the past, but I think I?ll still have to see it to believe it. However, maybe this rumor is a good thing as it potentially freezes buyers who want an iPad but like the 7? form factor from buying another brand? Then, once the iPad gets repriced lower with the iPad 3 release, they figure they might as well buy that and consider the extra real estate as a bonus.

         
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    Posted: 01 March 2012 11:32 PM #59

    cranium - 02 March 2012 03:14 AM

    I usually don?t put much cred with Digitimes, but the 16 and 32GB comment blows my mind as sheer craziness. Is there a flash shortage too? In fact, if there was a shortage due to the display, I?d hope Apple puts out a higher proportion of 64 and 128GB units for the good margins and the fact it?s easy to sell them during a shortage when it?s ?buy this unit or give it to the guy behind you and wait another 3 weeks?.

    RE: 7.85 iPad mini. I know several users of other tablets who rave about the 7? form factor. It may not be for me, but they actually list it as an advantage. Another thing to think about is how it would affect the iPod touch pricing. You?d be forced to push those prices down as well. That triggers a reduction for the Nano as well. I?d miss my margins.

    Tech question, what resolution does this supposed 7.85? version run at? I don?t think Apple would want to introduce another resolution here, so would it just be the original iPad res shrunk down? Does that seem reasonable with getting the sandpaper out for the fingers?

    Apple has changed it?s mind on ideas like this in the past, but I think I?ll still have to see it to believe it. However, maybe this rumor is a good thing as it potentially freezes buyers who want an iPad but like the 7? form factor from buying another brand? Then, once the iPad gets repriced lower with the iPad 3 release, they figure they might as well buy that and consider the extra real estate as a bonus.

    It’s possible they got the sizes wrong, and instead it will be:

    iPad 2 - 8gb & 16gb - wifi & 3G models
    iPad 3 - 32gb & 64gb - wifi & 3G/LTE models


    RE:the iPad mini: The difference in size between 7” & 7.85” is actually significant, and may be enough to make it much more pleasant to use.

    [ Edited: 01 March 2012 11:34 PM by Burgess ]

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  • Posted: 02 March 2012 12:31 AM #60

    Interesting idea!

    The one thing I really don?t think we?ll see is the 8GB iPad. Given this is a great platform for video and photos I just think it leads to too many people running out of space too quickly and being very dissatisfied with their purchase. 8GB is just not something Apple will put out there (iCloud or not).