Elliott Wave Analysis

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    Posted: 27 January 2012 03:59 AM

    Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes nearer to highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and nearer to highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

    Month   Max pain   Highest OI(calls)    Highest OI(puts)
    Feb 12    $415          $430                 $400
    Mar 12    
    $415          $450                 $420
    Apr 12    
    $395          $410                 $400
    Jul 12    
    $390          $500                 $330
    Oct 12    
    $400          $440                 $400
    Jan 13    
    $350          $400                 $250 

    01/20/12 Max pain = $380, closed above at $420.30.  Near HOIC of $400. Max pain(Oct)=$410.
    12/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed below at $381.02.  Near HOIP.
    11/18/11 Max pain = $390, closed below at $374.94.
    10/21/11 Max pain = $390, closed above at $392.87.
    09/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed above at $400.50.
    08/19/11 Max pain = $365, closed below at $356.03.
    07/15/11 Max pain = $345, closed above at $364.92.

    OI of possible bullish vertical call spread (Jul $480/$500) is over 28,000s, dropped 1k.

    Max pain increased for most months.  HOIC (Mar) increased to $450.

    Edit:  Replaced near with nearer to.

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    Posted: 27 January 2012 12:48 PM #1

    Mace - 27 January 2012 07:59 AM

    It usually closes near highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and near highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

    I don’t think so, but I guess it depends on how you define “near”.

    Mace - 27 January 2012 07:59 AM

    01/20/12 Max pain = $380, closed above at $420.30.  Near HOIC of $400.

    Well, maybe if you consider closing at $420.30 to be “near” $400. rolleyes  But at $5 intervals there are 5 strikes in that range: $400, $405, $410, $415, and $420.

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    Posted: 27 January 2012 07:08 PM #2

    I think “near” in this instance means “closer to” either the puts or the calls with the highest OI.

    And if so, I should probably be really scared that I’m becoming increasingly fluent in Mace-speak. :D

         
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    Posted: 30 January 2012 06:03 PM #3

    Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes nearer to highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and nearer to highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

    Month   Max pain   Highest OI(calls)    Highest OI(puts)
    Feb 12    $420          $430                 $400
    Mar 12    
    $420          $450                 $420
    Apr 12    
    $395          $410                 $400
    May 12    
    $430          $450                 $400
    Jul 12    
    $395          $500                 $350
    Oct 12    
    $400          $440                 $400
    Jan 13    
    $350          $400                 $250 

    01/20/12 Max pain = $380, closed above at $420.30.  Nearer to HOIC of $400. Max pain(Oct)=$410.
    12/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed below at $381.02.  Nearer to HOIP.
    11/18/11 Max pain = $390, closed below at $374.94.
    10/21/11 Max pain = $390, closed above at $392.87.
    09/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed above at $400.50.
    08/19/11 Max pain = $365, closed below at $356.03.
    07/15/11 Max pain = $345, closed above at $364.92.

    OI of possible bullish vertical call spread (Jul $480/$500) is over 27,000s, dropped 1k.

    May options are recently introduced.  As such can use as a proxy for “current pain for Feb” and is more reliable in predicting price behavior on Feb OE.

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    Posted: 03 February 2012 03:20 AM #4

    Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes nearer to highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and nearer to highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

    Month   Max pain   Highest OI(calls)    Highest OI(puts)
    Feb 12    $425          $430                 $400
    Mar 12    
    $425          $450                 $420
    Apr 12    
    $400          $410                 $400
    May 12    
    $410          $450                 $400
    Jul 12    
    $400          $500                 $350
    Oct 12    
    $405          $460                 $400
    Jan 13    
    $360          $400                 $250 

    01/20/12 Max pain = $380, closed above at $420.30.  Nearer to HOIC of $400.
    12/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed below at $381.02.  Nearer to HOIP.
    11/18/11 Max pain = $390, closed below at $374.94.
    10/21/11 Max pain = $390, closed above at $392.87.
    09/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed above at $400.50.
    08/19/11 Max pain = $365, closed below at $356.03.
    07/15/11 Max pain = $345, closed above at $364.92.

    OI of possible bullish vertical call spread (Jul $480/$500) is over 23,000s, dropped 4k.

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    Posted: 17 February 2012 05:13 PM #5

    Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes nearer to highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and nearer to highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

    Month   Max pain   Highest OI(calls)    Highest OI(puts)
    Feb 12    $455          $425                 $400
    Mar 12    
    $470          $500                 $460
    Apr 12    
    $425          $430                 $470
    May 12    
    $440          $500                 $400
    Jul 12    
    $420          $500                 $400
    Oct 12    
    $440          $500                 $440
    Jan 13    
    $380          $400                 $250 

    02/17/12 Max pain = $455, closed above at $500.72.  Nearer to HOIC (Mar) of $500.
    01/20/12 Max pain = $380, closed above at $420.30.  Nearer to HOIC of $400.
    12/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed below at $381.02.  Nearer to HOIP.
    11/18/11 Max pain = $390, closed below at $374.94.
    10/21/11 Max pain = $390, closed above at $392.87.
    09/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed above at $400.50.
    08/19/11 Max pain = $365, closed below at $356.03.
    07/15/11 Max pain = $345, closed above at $364.92.

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  • Posted: 11 April 2012 04:07 PM #6

    Max pain update.  Please.