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Elliott Wave Analysis
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Max pain thesis: So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes nearer to highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and nearer to highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.
Month Max pain Highest OI(calls) Highest OI(puts)
Feb 12 $415 $430 $400
Mar 12 $415 $450 $420
Apr 12 $395 $410 $400
Jul 12 $390 $500 $330
Oct 12 $400 $440 $400
Jan 13 $350 $400 $25001/20/12 Max pain = $380, closed above at $420.30. Near HOIC of $400. Max pain(Oct)=$410.
12/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed below at $381.02. Near HOIP.
11/18/11 Max pain = $390, closed below at $374.94.
10/21/11 Max pain = $390, closed above at $392.87.
09/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed above at $400.50.
08/19/11 Max pain = $365, closed below at $356.03.
07/15/11 Max pain = $345, closed above at $364.92.OI of possible bullish vertical call spread (Jul $480/$500) is over 28,000s, dropped 1k.
Max pain increased for most months. HOIC (Mar) increased to $450.
Edit: Replaced near with nearer to.
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Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. - Steve Jobs
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It usually closes near highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and near highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.
I don’t think so, but I guess it depends on how you define “near”.
01/20/12 Max pain = $380, closed above at $420.30. Near HOIC of $400.
Well, maybe if you consider closing at $420.30 to be “near” $400.
But at $5 intervals there are 5 strikes in that range: $400, $405, $410, $415, and $420.Signature
The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs
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I think “near” in this instance means “closer to” either the puts or the calls with the highest OI.
And if so, I should probably be really scared that I’m becoming increasingly fluent in Mace-speak. :D
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Max pain thesis: So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes nearer to highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and nearer to highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.
Month Max pain Highest OI(calls) Highest OI(puts)
Feb 12 $420 $430 $400
Mar 12 $420 $450 $420
Apr 12 $395 $410 $400
May 12 $430 $450 $400
Jul 12 $395 $500 $350
Oct 12 $400 $440 $400
Jan 13 $350 $400 $25001/20/12 Max pain = $380, closed above at $420.30. Nearer to HOIC of $400. Max pain(Oct)=$410.
12/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed below at $381.02. Nearer to HOIP.
11/18/11 Max pain = $390, closed below at $374.94.
10/21/11 Max pain = $390, closed above at $392.87.
09/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed above at $400.50.
08/19/11 Max pain = $365, closed below at $356.03.
07/15/11 Max pain = $345, closed above at $364.92.OI of possible bullish vertical call spread (Jul $480/$500) is over 27,000s, dropped 1k.
May options are recently introduced. As such can use as a proxy for “current pain for Feb” and is more reliable in predicting price behavior on Feb OE.
Signature
Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. - Steve Jobs
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Max pain thesis: So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes nearer to highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and nearer to highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.
Month Max pain Highest OI(calls) Highest OI(puts)
Feb 12 $425 $430 $400
Mar 12 $425 $450 $420
Apr 12 $400 $410 $400
May 12 $410 $450 $400
Jul 12 $400 $500 $350
Oct 12 $405 $460 $400
Jan 13 $360 $400 $25001/20/12 Max pain = $380, closed above at $420.30. Nearer to HOIC of $400.
12/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed below at $381.02. Nearer to HOIP.
11/18/11 Max pain = $390, closed below at $374.94.
10/21/11 Max pain = $390, closed above at $392.87.
09/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed above at $400.50.
08/19/11 Max pain = $365, closed below at $356.03.
07/15/11 Max pain = $345, closed above at $364.92.OI of possible bullish vertical call spread (Jul $480/$500) is over 23,000s, dropped 4k.
Signature
Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. - Steve Jobs
-
Max pain thesis: So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes nearer to highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and nearer to highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.
Month Max pain Highest OI(calls) Highest OI(puts)
Feb 12 $455 $425 $400
Mar 12 $470 $500 $460
Apr 12 $425 $430 $470
May 12 $440 $500 $400
Jul 12 $420 $500 $400
Oct 12 $440 $500 $440
Jan 13 $380 $400 $25002/17/12 Max pain = $455, closed above at $500.72. Nearer to HOIC (Mar) of $500.
01/20/12 Max pain = $380, closed above at $420.30. Nearer to HOIC of $400.
12/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed below at $381.02. Nearer to HOIP.
11/18/11 Max pain = $390, closed below at $374.94.
10/21/11 Max pain = $390, closed above at $392.87.
09/16/11 Max pain = $385, closed above at $400.50.
08/19/11 Max pain = $365, closed below at $356.03.
07/15/11 Max pain = $345, closed above at $364.92.Signature
Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. - Steve Jobs
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Max pain update. Please.
