iPad (3rd Gen) 1st Weekend Sales Predictions

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    Posted: 08 March 2012 11:33 AM

    The iPad is now available for preorder and will be available on March 16.  I expect Apple to announce record iPad first weekend sales on the following Monday March 19.

    Post your predictions here.

    My prediction is 6 million.

         
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    Posted: 08 March 2012 11:36 AM #1

    Thats pretty bold.  I would venture a guess of 4 million.

         
  • Posted: 08 March 2012 11:39 AM #2

    Nevyn - 08 March 2012 03:33 PM

    The iPad is now available for preorder and will be available on March 16.  I expect Apple to announce record iPad first weekend sales on the following Monday March 19.

    Post your predictions here.

    My prediction is 6 million.

    Yeah. I want AAPL at $600 in April too. An announcement of unit sales of that magnitude would be a help!  LOL

         
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    Posted: 08 March 2012 11:41 AM #3

    omacvi - 08 March 2012 03:36 PM

    Thats pretty bold.  I would venture a guess of 4 million.

    - sales were limited by Apple’s manufacturing ability
    - As time goes, on TC has improved their ability to deliver
    - broad launch across many countries
    - kept form factor almost the same -> existing tooling can be used
    - has Apple’s site ever been crashed by preorders like yesterday?
    - In the past it’s been slow but never a crash

         
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    Posted: 08 March 2012 11:42 AM #4

    4.2 million

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  • Posted: 08 March 2012 11:50 AM #5

    1.5 million

         
  • Posted: 08 March 2012 12:42 PM #6

    That is a really tough question. Six million units during launch weekend implies iPhone-like sales numbers for the June quarter. That would be great, but I don’t see it. Then again I’ve never seen Apple’s site crash before. I’ve got to give this some thought first.

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    Posted: 08 March 2012 12:48 PM #7

    Keep in mind last time everyone was surprised with the low iPad 2 number.  They reported 4.7 million and many were expecting 8 million.  They had serious product transition issues. 

    Demand and no change in form factor will allow for much stronger sales.  Pent up demand is much higher and those folks will buy now and not wait later in the spring.

    The fact that 24 hours later they still have them in stock for March 16 delivery tells me they are selling millions.

         
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    Posted: 08 March 2012 01:33 PM #8

    DawnTreader - 08 March 2012 03:39 PM
    Nevyn - 08 March 2012 03:33 PM

    The iPad is now available for preorder and will be available on March 16.  I expect Apple to announce record iPad first weekend sales on the following Monday March 19.

    Post your predictions here.

    My prediction is 6 million.

    Yeah. I want AAPL at $600 in April too. An announcement of unit sales of that magnitude would be a help!  LOL

    My target is $599!

         
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    Posted: 08 March 2012 01:46 PM #9

    Gregg Thurman - 08 March 2012 04:42 PM

    That is a really tough question. Six million units during launch weekend implies iPhone-like sales numbers for the June quarter. That would be great, but I don’t see it. Then again I’ve never seen Apple’s site crash before. I’ve got to give this some thought first.

    It is not really just a weekend.  It is 10 days of sales with preorders included.  I think they could ship right now, but are holding back to a certain extent for a great launch weekend number.  March is quarter end.  They will be working extra hard to get that material out the door.


    As an aside, my Apple orders at the end of quarter get delivered much quicker than other times.

         
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    Posted: 08 March 2012 01:47 PM #10

    I gave this one some thought and I can’t get over 3 million.

    I fully realize that the number of launch countries is up by three (IIRC) compared to even the iPhone 4S!  (And if you look just one week out, the number of launch countries is also higher for the next week.)  But I’ve been burned by iPad over-optimism in the past.  And 3 million sold would still be an insane number by any analysts’ projections.

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  • Posted: 08 March 2012 07:32 PM #11

    No guesses from me, but worth noting that AT&T LTE iPads at 16GB and 64GB are the first showing the strain of demand, now with March 19 shipping, sted of March 16.

         
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    Posted: 08 March 2012 08:58 PM #12

    Are we talking about units sold or units actually shipped? those numbers could be quite different.

    Units ordered I’m guessing 6 million.

    If you extend out that period to cover the launch weekend in 24 more countries on March 23rd, then that number goes up to 9 million.

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    Posted: 08 March 2012 09:01 PM #13

    If we go by “sales” it’ll be units sold as defined by Apple in its SEC paperwork.  Besides, sales over shipment numbers anyday. LOL

    It’d be great to have a pre-order and/or 3-day sales number.  But this isn’t an iPhone, so we’ll see.

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    Posted: 08 March 2012 09:23 PM #14

    I’d be interested to hear from anyone who has been to an apple store in the last 24 hours and seen if the new cheaper iPad 2 is selling at all?

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    Posted: 08 March 2012 09:29 PM #15

    I have this feeling that iPad ASP may go up this year.  Faster cellular data that you’re able to share (depending on carrier**) should prove to be a big draw.  It is for me.

    [ Edited: 08 March 2012 09:37 PM by Mav ]

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