iPad (3rd Gen) 1st Weekend Sales Predictions

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    Posted: 08 March 2012 11:42 PM #16

    Is anybody taking these two weeks of iPad sales this quarter strickly as a bonus to strong sales?  Or is it catch up?  Meaning, everybody knew it was coming and have been waiting to purchase the latest model so it’s a good thing it was released before quarter’s end. 

    Much like what happened with the iPhone last October - causing that quarter’s miss, but adding to the Christmas quarter.

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    Posted: 08 March 2012 11:46 PM #17

    What do you think?

    Me personally, net positive if only because of a HUGE launch.  Apple wouldn’t launch this fast if there weren’t signs of huge demand.  So even if you think Apple sold, say, 5 million iPads as of right now, the launch should change that in dramatic fashion.

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  • Posted: 08 March 2012 11:49 PM #18

    Mav - 09 March 2012 03:46 AM

    What do you think?

    Me personally, net positive if only because of a HUGE launch.  Apple wouldn’t launch this fast if there weren’t signs of huge demand.  So even if you think Apple sold, say, 5 million iPads as of right now, the launch should change that in dramatic fashion.

    If Apple has only sold 5 million iPads as of now, we are screwed, totally.

         
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    Posted: 09 March 2012 12:03 AM #19

    How so?  They’ll sell 5 million more in a week.  LOL

    I was being intentionally pessimistic.  I don’t think seasonality effect + new iPad anticipation slowdown affected sales that much.

    I _do_ think that both factors are in play, though.

    15.4 million iPads in a 14-week quarter does not mean 13 or so million iPads in a 13-week quarter without something like a new iPad.  At the same time, the transition and sales pause will hurt sales until the launch next week, and the holiday shopping season is over.

    It’ll be interesting to see how Apple will handle this.  Remember, the prior year iPad compare is approx. 4.7M units.

    [ Edited: 09 March 2012 12:08 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 09 March 2012 12:15 AM #20

    I don’ think they will sell 5 million more in two weeks.

    The estimates I see here are, IMO, way too optimistic.  I could be proven wrong, and I hope I am, but I am counting on a maximum of 2 million new iPads in March. 

    We’ll find out in April.

         
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    Posted: 09 March 2012 12:18 AM #21

    Mav - 09 March 2012 03:46 AM

    What do you think?

    Me personally, net positive if only because of a HUGE launch.  Apple wouldn’t launch this fast if there weren’t signs of huge demand.  So even if you think Apple sold, say, 5 million iPads as of right now, the launch should change that in dramatic fashion.

    I think with iPad’s popularity peaking, along with the increase in the number of countries, any lost ((or better said - postponed )) sales are trumped by the sheer volume of new customers and first time tablet buyers.

    Net positive all the way!

    Just don’t want to overlook anything (like I did last Oct) and pay for it dearly…..

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    Posted: 09 March 2012 12:22 AM #22

    roni - 09 March 2012 04:15 AM

    I don’ think they will sell 5 million more in two weeks.

    The estimates I see here are, IMO, way too optimistic.  I could be proven wrong, and I hope I am, but I am counting on a maximum of 2 million new iPads in March. 

    We’ll find out in April.

    I think you will be pleasantly surprised at the # of new iPad sold.

    My estimate is 5.4 million new iPads sold for the quarter.

      cheers to the longs
          JohnG

         
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    Posted: 09 March 2012 12:40 AM #23

    I think it was likely that apple only sold about 5-6 million iPads in Jan & Feb, most potential buyers knew the 3rd generation was near and would have held off.

    However I expect at least another 10 million units to ship in March, meaning we should be at least on par with last quarters 15 million figures if not more. Last years iPad 2 launch was a bit of a mess, compounded by the Japanese triple disaster. Apple is going to release the new iPad in 35 countries over the course of a week - which implies a massive supply level, and on top of that we have the increased sales from the cheaper iPad 2.

    I’m quietly confident we will see about 50 million iPads + iPhones sold in Q2, just slightly down on last quarters 52 million.

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    Posted: 09 March 2012 01:00 AM #24

    Let’s put it this way roni.

    If new iPad initial sales would be significantly smaller than iPhone 4S (say half or less), why would Apple launch in more countries than the iPhone 4S?  I get that iPad demand probably isn’t iPhone demand (that would be insane if true, even if only for initial sales), but an aggressive rollout would point to large supply and the willingness to move it.

    For reference:  The iPad launched ONLY in the US on March 11, 2011, and launched in “26 or more countries” _two_ weeks later (March 25).  There were a lot of things going on then, such as launch logistics, and very possibly some supply chain issues. 

    This go-round?

    iPad launches in 10 countries, 3 more than the iPhone 4S.  By the way, that includes all of those “high volume” countries outside the US (see iPad 2 keynote), as well as Hong Kong - which btw is a “devious” way to introduce iPad fever in China, as if any assurance was needed that every last iPad would be sold at launch.  That clicking (or tapping raspberry) sound is the iPad enthusiast peoples of ten countries pre-ordering on apple.com at the same time.  LOL  Then 25 more countries one week later.  This launch is gonna be massive.

    [ Edited: 09 March 2012 01:04 AM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 09 March 2012 02:59 AM #25

    I’m going out on a limb and predicting 4M iPads sold by March 19th, which is likely when AAPL, along with possibly AT&T and Verizon, will come out and say a number.  By end of quarter, possibly over 6M iPad3s sold worldwide.  With an ASP of roughly $700 (most early adopters will want LTE plus at least 32Gb), that’s $4.2B in additional revenue for the quarter.

         
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    Posted: 09 March 2012 04:22 AM #26

    The last 3 quarters iPad 2 sales have been up over 111%-166%  year on year.

    I don’t know why anyone would think the 3rd generation iPad won’t keep that same growth rate - with the iPhone & IPad, Apple seems to be roughly doubling production capacity for each new model introduced.

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    Posted: 09 March 2012 05:24 AM #27

    Current availability when pre-ordering the new iPad:

    US:
    On March 16th

    Canada:
    Available by March 19th

    Japan:
    Available by March 19th

    Singapore:
    Delivers between March 16th - 22nd

    Australia:
    Delivers between March 16th - 22nd

    Hong Kong:
    Currently unavailable

    United Kingdom:
    Dispatched: 2-3 weeks

    Germany:
    Available by March 19th

    France:
    Delivers before March 19th

    Switzerland:
    Available by March 22nd

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  • Posted: 09 March 2012 10:30 AM #28

    johnG - 09 March 2012 04:22 AM
    roni - 09 March 2012 04:15 AM

    I don’ think they will sell 5 million more in two weeks.

    The estimates I see here are, IMO, way too optimistic.  I could be proven wrong, and I hope I am, but I am counting on a maximum of 2 million new iPads in March. 

    We’ll find out in April.

    I think you will be pleasantly surprised at the # of new iPad sold.

    My estimate is 5.4 million new iPads sold for the quarter.

      cheers to the longs
          JohnG

    I hope you guys are all correct, and I think the odds are probably slightly in favor of you being correct.  I’ll be happy to adjust my number up, but I do not think I get to 5-6 million smile

         
  • Posted: 09 March 2012 11:08 AM #29

    I am wondering how high the correlation is between the dramatic increase in the Apple stock price and the overall sales success of the new Ipads. I think it is substantial .

    Personally , I have been fortunate to be a holder of Apple stock through the latest bull run which increased the value of my portfolio substantial .
    This made the decision to upgrade to the next Ipad easier. My personal consumer confidence is high ..
    In addition as Apple becomes a larger and larger part of my portfolio , I tell myself I need to do ? research and due diligence ? by purchasing the newest toy.

    Multiply this by millions of happy shareholders and you could get an interesting effect

         
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    Posted: 09 March 2012 11:13 AM #30

    The white iPad with AT&T has now gone to March 19th shipping for all capacities.

    Quick recap:

    Black/16gb/Wifi - March 16th
    Black/32gb/Wifi - March 16th
    Black/16gb/Wifi - March 16th

    White/16gb/Wifi - March 19th
    White/32gb/Wifi - March 16th
    White/64gb/Wifi - March 16th


    Black/16gb/Verizon - March 16th
    Black/32gb/Verizon - March 16th
    Black/64gb/Verizon - March 16th

    White/16gb/Verizon - March 16th
    White/16gb/Verizon - March 16th
    White/16gb/Verizon - March 16th


    Black/16gb/AT&T - March 16th
    Black/32gb/AT&T - March 16th
    Black/64gb/AT&T - March 19th

    White/16gb/AT&T - March 19th
    White/32gb/AT&T - March 19th
    White/64gb/AT&T - March 19th

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