iPad (3rd Gen) 1st Weekend Sales Predictions

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    Posted: 16 March 2012 10:04 AM #46

    Here some numbers in order to better assess the potential iPad sales for this quarter (sorry, but I don’t know how to insert xls-tables in here):

    Quarter / Units sold (mil.) / QoQ growth / YoY growth
    Jul 10 /  3.27      
    Oct 10 /  4.19 / 28% 
    Jan 11 /  7.33 / 75% 
    Apr 11 /  4.69 /-36% 
    Jul 11 /  9.25 / 97% / 183%
    Oct 11 / 11.12 / 20% / 165%
    Jan 12 / 15.43 / 39% / 111%

    During last quarter Apple sold 1.1 mil. iPads per week.

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  • Posted: 16 March 2012 10:10 AM #47

    During last quarter Apple sold 1.1 mil. iPads per week.

    Therefore, a “great” new iPad launch should be about 2 mil….

         
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    Posted: 16 March 2012 10:22 AM #48

    But iff they include a week of pre-sales then I bet they will shock us with at least 4 million. What I don’t know is if they will actually announce the numbers.

         
  • Posted: 16 March 2012 04:35 PM #49

    Chikita is tracking ad impressions on the new iPad and iPad 1&2 : http://labs.chitika.com/ipad/

    How they do it: http://insights.chitika.com/2012/the-new-ipad-tracker-methodology/

         
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    Posted: 16 March 2012 05:04 PM #50

    Chitika has no credibility to me.  Their Chitikameter (VeriPhones vs. AT&T iPhones) failed a crucial estimation test by miles and I stopped using them as a reference of any kind afterwards.

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  • Posted: 16 March 2012 06:04 PM #51

    My FedEx guy: “We had 380,000 come through Memphis, 2,800 at the local office, I’ve delivered about 300, and EVERYBODY has been home.”

    https://twitter.com/danbenjamin/status/180761063057408001

         
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    Posted: 16 March 2012 06:17 PM #52

    Well, bear in mind that Memphis is a FedEx hub, right?  So, a lot of those were bouncing to not-too-far-away locations.

    But I _was_ one of the first to raise the possibility of a big, big iPad initial sales number, should Apple choose to release it :D In any event, I think my iPad number for fiscal Q2 is gonna go up…

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    Posted: 16 March 2012 06:19 PM #53

    DEVELOPING STORY: 

    Worker productivity down 15% nationwide on Friday
    Worker absences also 15% of workforce today

    LOL

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  • Posted: 16 March 2012 06:57 PM #54

    Article on Singapore launch:

    No Excitement As New iPad Launches In Singapore

    Over at Singtel?s flagship store near the busy shopping district of Orchard Road , a spokesman for the country?s largest telecommunications provider acknowledged the lack of queues. This had nothing to do with the popularity of the product, or the proliferation of iPad 2s across the country, but rather decentralized sales for spreading customers out and preventing large crowds at any one store, he said.

    In Singapore, where there is no official Apple store unlike those in New York, Hong Kong, Tokyo or Shanghai, customers are without one iconic place to get their iPads. For Singtel alone, about 24 of their stores and partner outlets were selling the new iPad. They also started selling the device online from midnight on Friday, using couriers to deliver the units at 3 a.m.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2012/03/16/no-excitement-as-new-ipad-launches-in-singapore/

         
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    Posted: 16 March 2012 07:07 PM #55

    This is how it should be going forward.  Lower-drama launches.  People who pre-ordered late, or didn’t pre-order, having a decent shot of getting one off the shelf, if not exactly in the desired configuration, on launch day.

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    Posted: 16 March 2012 09:22 PM #56

    I haven’t read anything about how quickly Apple retail stores, they always have higher inventory compared to 3rd party retailers, ran out of stock today AND how quickly stores will be replenished with iPads and in what quantity in the coming days.  With another huge worldwide iPad launch in only one week, this is where the supply chain king Tim Cook shines…..fingers crossed.

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  • Posted: 16 March 2012 09:27 PM #57

    afterglow - 17 March 2012 12:22 AM

    I haven’t read anything about how quickly Apple retail stores, they always have higher inventory compared to 3rd party retailers, ran out of stock today AND how quickly stores will be replenished with iPads and in what quantity in the coming days.  With another huge worldwide iPad launch in only one week, this is where the supply chain king Tim Cook shines…..fingers crossed.

    The Pioneer Place store in downtown Portland, OR, had a line about 140 yards long at a little after 8 this morning.  The line was gone at about 10:00.  At close to 11 they still had stock, but were out of AT&T and Verizon LTE phones.

         
  • Posted: 16 March 2012 09:34 PM #58

    Compare Singapore (without an Apple Store) to Hong Kong, four hours away by flight from Singapore and where they have a only single Apple Store for its seven million residents and over 42 million annual visitors.

    The Wall Street Journal reports that the new iPad launch in Hong Kong was remarkably subdued compared to the thousands-long line that gathered for the iPhone 4S last November.

    Apple kept lines to a minimum at its store by requiring customers to register online with their local ID cards to buy the device. Lucky customers were then assigned times to come pick up the new iPad. According to there report, the reservation system was down on Friday because of “heavy traffic volume.”

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/03/16/hong_kong_apple_store_avoids_scalper_antics_with_lottery_system_for_new_ipad.html

    One of the few present who was able to get a reservation online last night was Amy Yuen, 21, a local Hong Kong student. ?I am really happy. It was a lucky draw,? she said, noting that some of her friends had tried to use up to ten peoples? IDs to get reservations, and still weren?t successful….?

    http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2012/03/16/empty-lines-at-hong-kong-ipad-launch/?mod=yahoo_hs

    While in Hong Kong in January for a month, I had conversations with a couple of students who were involved in buying up to 6 iPhones 4S on a daily basis. They would try to get a reservation after 9pm on the store’s web site for the next day pick-up. Two were the limit for each. But each what? Accepted identification. So you could get two with your Hong Kong ID Card, two with your Hong Kong SAR passport and two if you had a national ID card from China. They were making about $20 per phone they handed over to the gang. They also told me that the gang boss was also buying 50 to 200 unlocked phones a day for China from Hong Kong telephone carriers through back doors. Employees from a Hong Kong telephone carrier were becoming some of the best reliable suppliers of iPhones in some Chinese cities by shuffling documents.

    This new reservation system in Hong Kong cuts out a little of that retail nonsense.

    Corrupt telephone carriers are another matter to deal with. They are cheating their local customers who go to their shops in Hong Kong and are told there is no supply for them and to go try the Apple web site (because someone is making money by diverting the limited supply to the gangs)

    In November I was visiting a college administrator (of Chinese ethnicity) in New Jersey who was responsible for about a third of the mainland China students studying at his college (about 180 in total).

    He was contacted by the mail room managers who said they had no more room in their facility to handle mainland China students packages. He complained they were swamped by daily arrivals of Apple product boxes arriving. They were not being picked up fast enough and it was creating an overall burden on the limited staff that was not set up to be an external warehouse of Apple.

    My visit ended as bells were going off and before a decision was made (like restrict a student’s mail or packages - or only Apple products packages - no doubt very unpopular and probably illegal). I explained to my friend that there was a re-export gang behind it somewhere organizing the collections and to tread carefully. He understood that part.

    I suggested they find out what a student is likely making in the exercise and put in a processing fee for any and all packages (with an option to waive it at the post officer’s discretion - ie the first three packages in that student’s name is free.)

    Some of the students already complained to him that their packages were legitimate gifts for their family members when they returned home.

    These are distribution problems that many Western countries are not likely to be exposed to but that going on in very crowded countries daily. A Singapore carrier, an Apple Store in Hong Kong and a New Jersey college have distinct approaches to them.

         
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    Posted: 16 March 2012 11:36 PM #59

    Seems like there’s Apple Stores with inventory today.  I fuzzily recall that being the case with the iPhone 4S launch as well (I of course could be wrong).  Well, at least for this particular product launch, the logistics and initial supply sides of the equation have been a tremendous success!

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  • Posted: 17 March 2012 12:12 AM #60

    And just wait until enterprise’s orders that were pre-budgeted but waiting to be submitted pending the new iPads launch start to fill!  :drool:

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