iPad (3rd Gen) 1st Weekend Sales Predictions

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    Posted: 17 March 2012 12:20 AM #61

    BUT BUT ASP goes down rolleyes

    LOL

    Like I care.  Like Apple cares!  Glorious stuff…

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  • Posted: 17 March 2012 12:50 AM #62

    I think Apple sold 20M new iPads.  But I’ve had 3 drinks too.

         
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    Posted: 17 March 2012 01:00 AM #63

    20M.  In three days.  (So that’s…7 million without any drinks? wink)

    OMG I SHOULDA BOUGHT ALL-IN WEEKLIES

    Let’s get “reasonable.”  Matching iPhone 4S 3-day sales will be more than enough, much more.  And that’s not exactly a low bar, even as I get this feeling that Apple just cleared it.

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    Posted: 17 March 2012 01:10 AM #64

    Well today I found out our local University store bought 100 iPads and still had plenty left over. Last year they only got 20.

    Ran into our local UPS guy and he said he only delivered 15 and had many more iPhones 4s on opening day.


    I am starting to think any number over 2 million would be very bullish.

    However I am still down for 4 million.  No drinks all week.  Don’t keep enough wine in the house.:(

    [ Edited: 17 March 2012 01:12 AM by omacvi ]      
  • Posted: 17 March 2012 07:42 AM #65

    Article at Hong Kong leading English language newspaper South China Morning Post (SCMP.com) points to a tidy $240 earn per each 32 GB iPad bought at the Apple Store in Hong Kong and immediately sold to traders outside the front door.

    one man was seen pocketing HK$13,100 (US$1,690.33) for two 32GB iPads he had just bought for HK$4,688 (US$604.90) each. (NOTE the US$480.52 earned for the transaction!)

     

    Scalpers go elsewhere for iPads
    Online sales and instruction not to queue at Apple’s flagship store fail to deter buyers on launch day - there were 84 other places to line up for new model
    Simpson Cheung
    Mar 17, 2012

    Apple’s online sales arrangements for the new iPad - under which the gadgets were not available from its own shop except by pre-order - have failed to eradicate scalping on the launch day yesterday as the product was also available at other outlets where professional queuers lined up early to make a quick profit.

    Groups of South Asian buyers, told not to queue up outside Apple’s flagship store in Central, turned to 84 other stores across the city to buy the product. After chaos during last year’s launch of the iPhone 4S, when thousands of buyers besieged its store in the hope of being among the first to own the new gadget, Apple only accepted pre-orders through its Hong Kong website.

    But Efe, 26, a Pakistani who queued up outside DG Lifestyle Store in Times Square, Causeway Bay, said he was buying the iPad for a “friend” who had a shop in Tsim Sha Tsui.

    He said his friend would sometimes give him “several hundred dollars” and sometimes even more.

    “But sometimes he just treats me to a meal,” he said. Others were paid HK$600 (US$77.42) to HK$700 (US$90.33) a day to join the queue, he said. Efe was seen talking to another South Asian man who collected 40 to 50 iPads from people in the queue but who claimed they were for his own use.

    The Causeway Bay branch of electronic appliance shop Fortress gave out 100 tickets to early birds at 8am and by 11am had sold its entire stock of iPads. Rival chain Broadway required customers to buy a HK$1,990 (US$256.77) sleeve together with the iPad.

    Outside Apple’s flagship store in Central IFC, some 40 to 50 people who had successfully pre-ordered iPads online queued up to wait for the store to open at 8am.

    The first man in the queue, a 28-year-old computer repairer giving his surname as Ko, said he arrived at 7.20am and planned to buy two white, 64GB iPads for his own use.

    But he was unhappy about the arrangements, saying the time allocated to him was inconvenient for those who had to get to work. “We are not allowed to find somebody else to pick up the iPad. Not everybody can get to the store at this time,” he said.

    Frederick Lo Ting-hing, 28, a tour guide who bought two black, 16GB iPads, agreed with Ko. He said Apple should have allowed buyers to choose a convenient time.

    Several parallel import traders were stationed outside the store and one man was seen pocketing HK$13,100 (US$1,690.33) for two 32GB iPads he had just bought for HK$4,688 (US$604.90) each. (NOTE the US$480.52 earned for the transaction!)

    Parallel import trader Kurt Lo King-yau, sales manager of Digital Action Telecom in Mong Kok, said he had bought 150 iPads ranging from 16GB to 64GB from buyers and resold them for HK$4,780 (US$616.77) to HK$6,680 (US$861.94) . He said only about 60 customers bought the new iPads from him, fewer than at last year’s iPad 2 launch.

    Apple declined to comment yesterday on the online pre-order sales arrangements.

         
  • Posted: 17 March 2012 11:56 AM #66

    Mountain of Pre-orders Cause Delays:  Appleinsider

         
  • Posted: 17 March 2012 06:31 PM #67

    Carl is .5 to 1 million higher than my estimate smile

    Carl Howe, an analyst with the Yankee Group, expects Apple will sell between 2 million and 2.5 million iPads during the first weekend, that?s about half what the iPhone 4S sold in its first weekend last year.

    ?This iPad is going to be bigger than the other two,? Howe said. ?They?re really only limited by how many 747s they could get from China. For the last week there has been no cargo capacity from China to the U.S. because Apple bought it all.?

    Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/03/15/2698184_p2/in-south-florida-crowd-for-ipad.html#storylink=cpy

         
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    Posted: 17 March 2012 06:45 PM #68

    I had to wait until 6:30 PM to get my new package from UPS on Friday.
    I asked the UPS delivery man if he was busy….he said not really except for these things as he handed me my new iPad.  grin .

         
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    Posted: 17 March 2012 07:06 PM #69

    I concur that the pre-orders plus a masterful logistics program and additional points of sale helped keep the lines down. Last year the local BB had 25 iPads and a line of 100 people. This year they had 100 ipads and only about 15 people in line. A local factor affecting turnout in this here BCS Championship town is that launch day fell during spring break.

    My experience waiting in the middle of that short line was not too great. I couldn’t imagine waiting in a line of 100 only to find out that the first 25 would get product.

         
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    Posted: 17 March 2012 07:11 PM #70

    I had a 64GB Vz LTE iPad with a tiny but glaring chip in the screen.

    I ran down to my local Apple Store on Day Two of the launch and they had a replacement in stock for me - not just another iPad box, but an actual warranty-designated new iPad of the same type!

    Thinkin’ that my personal experience says a lot about how Tim and Co. are managing this launch.

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    Posted: 17 March 2012 08:20 PM #71

    I think this will be bigger than the iPhone 4S launch.

    There is no 2 year contract requiring people to wait until they are eligible for an upgrade, and there is no restriction to being on a particular carrier that has a contract with apple to sell it.

    Plus this is a huge upgrade, much bigger than the iPad to iPad 2 upgrade.

    Anecdotally, people I would never have guessed would be interested in buying an iPad have told me they intend on getting the new one. I think the iPad reached critical mass at some point over the last year, and a lot of people wanted one but were waiting for the next generation to arrive before jumping in.

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    Posted: 17 March 2012 08:28 PM #72

    Burgess - 17 March 2012 11:20 PM

    I think this will be bigger than the iPhone 4S launch.

    There is no 2 year contract requiring people to wait until they are eligible for an upgrade, and there is no restriction to being on a particular carrier that has a contract with apple to sell it.

    Plus this is a huge upgrade, much bigger than the iPad to iPad 2 upgrade.

    Anecdotally, people I would never have guessed would be interested in buying an iPad have told me they intend on getting the new one. I think the iPad reached critical mass at some point over the last year, and a lot of people wanted one but were waiting for the next generation to arrive before jumping in.

    I too have seen people I never thought would get an iPad end up getting one on day one.

    I think there are millions that are now buying as a result of the Halo affect from the 4s.  First time owners of the iPhone now want another iOS device.  There are also millions who are upgrading from iPad 1.

    Please keep in mind most of the world does not live next to an Apple store or Best Buy.  That’s why ordering one today takes 2 weeks to ship.  Most of the extra inventory at Apple Stores will be depleted in 2 weeks.  There won’t be a shortage but that explains why they have ample supply.

    I can’t wait until Monday.

         
  • Posted: 17 March 2012 10:42 PM #73

    I went to the Apple Store today and asked one of the salesman why they weren’t sold out of this product like usual launches.  I was told they got way more supply than they ever have gotten before of this product.  She said the company really Stocked them full of inventory prior to launch.  The store I was at was not out of any inventory and said sales were very good.

         
  • Posted: 18 March 2012 12:02 AM #74

    Reposted from weekend thread…

    I was in the Apple store in Miami (Lincoln RD) and purchased a new iPad and AppleTV. I asked the salesman how sales were. He said the record one day receipt for the store was a million before the the iPad launch. He said they shattered the record on Friday… $3 million! He said that this store does the most per square foot in the country (it’s a small store).

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    Posted: 18 March 2012 12:14 AM #75

    While tracking my new iPad on FlightAware today (it’s on FDX98 BTW), I thought it would be interesting to estimate sales through air cargo flights from HK to Anchorage, Memphis, and Louisville (these are the sorting points for UPS & FedEx).

    I realize that not all FedEx or UPS flights from HKG contain new iPads.  Some may contain new iPhones, or even non Apple products too.

    But my new iPad’s on FDX98, so for this purpose, I’m going to assume this flight, and this flight alone, contains all new iPads.


    Looking at FedEx:
    http://flightaware.com/live/fleet/FDX

    FDX98, from HKG to MEM, is a Boeing 777 with a cargo capacity of 23,051 cu ft (653 m3) 37 ? pallets according to Wikipedia.  This flight is made once a day, seven days a week.  I’m assuming this entire flight is new iPads, since the tracking for my new iPad coincides with the flight times for this flight.

    The shipping weight of one new iPad with box is probably about 750g (650g+100g for box & charger), and the dimensions of one new iPad box is about 0.001342611 m^3, using the length & height of an actual iPad and 3 cm as the depth of the box.

    Assuming the entire cargo hold is full of new iPads, this would yield 486365 iPads per flight if limited by the size of the box, and 155221 iPads per flight if limited by weight (max landing weight minus max landing weight).

    If sales >= supply, and all the iPads sold over the 1st weekend plus preorders were shipped in the last two weeks (14 flights), FDX98 alone has shipped 2.17 million iPads.  I’m assuming this FedEx flight has only iPads and no other iDevices on board. 

    Still looking at FedEx, FDX48 from Shenzhen to Anchorage is also a Boeing 777, and flies between these cities 4 days a week.  This seems so similar to FDX98 that I’m assuming this flight contains new iPads too.  This gives us 1.24 million iPads in the last two weeks (8 flights).  I have no sure way of knowing whether the cargo on these flights are iPads, though.

    Based on the above calculations, 3.4 million new iPads sold over opening weekend is certainly possible.

    Note I’m not even including UPS in this yet, because I can’t be sure which UPS flights have iPads and not iPhones. 

    Edit: updated to add FDX48

    [ Edited: 18 March 2012 12:29 AM by moltenfire ]

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