iPad (3rd Gen) 1st Weekend Sales Predictions

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    Posted: 18 March 2012 12:17 AM #76

    I’m sure there are other flights in.

    My FedExed iPad didn’t originate from Memphis.  Far as I know it didn’t even bounce off Memphis, the way many things I’ve had shipped from FedEx/UPS bounce off the main hub first.  Maybe there were flights into LAX or around FedEx’s Ontario, CA depot.

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    Posted: 18 March 2012 12:26 AM #77

    Mav - 18 March 2012 03:17 AM

    I’m sure there are other flights in.

    My FedExed iPad didn’t originate from Memphis.  Far as I know it didn’t even bounce off Memphis, the way many things I’ve had shipped from FedEx/UPS bounce off the main hub first.  Maybe there were flights into LAX or around FedEx’s Ontario, CA depot.

    I think those flights bounce off Anchorage, like FDX48.

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    Posted: 18 March 2012 12:31 AM #78

    Hm.  You’d figure a Priority Overnight package would mention if my Ontario shipment bounced off another hub.  I saw nothing like that on my tracking page.

    OTOH, I kinda like UPS’s tracking system better.  It has those departure/arrival scans and everything.  Better granularity up until when the package arrives in your city, at which point UPS and FedEx are about even.

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    Posted: 18 March 2012 12:34 AM #79

    Mav - 18 March 2012 03:31 AM

    Hm.  You’d figure a Priority Overnight package would mention if my Ontario shipment bounced off another hub.  I saw nothing like that on my tracking page.

    OTOH, I kinda like UPS’s tracking system better.  It has those departure/arrival scans and everything.  Better granularity up until when the package arrives in your city, at which point UPS and FedEx are about even.

    So yours came to Ontario, Calif straight from HKG?  I dunno, maybe there’s direct FDX or UPS flights from HKG to Ontario, Calif I missed too.  In which case the estimate increases smile

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    Posted: 18 March 2012 12:38 AM #80

    No no.  See, my trading hypothesis was formed from my iPad “originating” in Ontario.

    You’re up to date on that, right?  The stockpiling of iPads in launch countries before the launch?  In _addition_ to new iPads being flown in like the iPhone 4S was?

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    Posted: 18 March 2012 12:53 AM #81

    Mav - 18 March 2012 03:38 AM

    No no.  See, my trading hypothesis was formed from my iPad “originating” in Ontario.

    You’re up to date on that, right?  The stockpiling of iPads in launch countries before the launch?  In _addition_ to new iPads being flown in like the iPhone 4S was?

    Yes, I know about stockpiling before launch, which is why I choose “last 2 weeks”.  I don’t have any information on how long Apple has been stockpiling new iPads since March 7 - it could’ve been since January, it could’ve been since the start of March.  So I pulled 2 weeks out of a hat.

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  • Posted: 19 March 2012 05:40 PM #82

    New iPad Tops Three Million

    http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20120319006546/en/iPad-Tops-Million

         
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    Posted: 19 March 2012 05:47 PM #83

    moltenfire - 18 March 2012 03:14 AM

    While tracking my new iPad on FlightAware today (it’s on FDX98 BTW), I thought it would be interesting to estimate sales through air cargo flights from HK to Anchorage, Memphis, and Louisville (these are the sorting points for UPS & FedEx).

    I realize that not all FedEx or UPS flights from HKG contain new iPads.  Some may contain new iPhones, or even non Apple products too.

    But my new iPad’s on FDX98, so for this purpose, I’m going to assume this flight, and this flight alone, contains all new iPads.


    Looking at FedEx:
    http://flightaware.com/live/fleet/FDX

    FDX98, from HKG to MEM, is a Boeing 777 with a cargo capacity of 23,051 cu ft (653 m3) 37 ? pallets according to Wikipedia.  This flight is made once a day, seven days a week.  I’m assuming this entire flight is new iPads, since the tracking for my new iPad coincides with the flight times for this flight.

    The shipping weight of one new iPad with box is probably about 750g (650g+100g for box & charger), and the dimensions of one new iPad box is about 0.001342611 m^3, using the length & height of an actual iPad and 3 cm as the depth of the box.

    Assuming the entire cargo hold is full of new iPads, this would yield 486365 iPads per flight if limited by the size of the box, and 155221 iPads per flight if limited by weight (max landing weight minus max landing weight).

    If sales >= supply, and all the iPads sold over the 1st weekend plus preorders were shipped in the last two weeks (14 flights), FDX98 alone has shipped 2.17 million iPads.  I’m assuming this FedEx flight has only iPads and no other iDevices on board. 

    Still looking at FedEx, FDX48 from Shenzhen to Anchorage is also a Boeing 777, and flies between these cities 4 days a week.  This seems so similar to FDX98 that I’m assuming this flight contains new iPads too.  This gives us 1.24 million iPads in the last two weeks (8 flights).  I have no sure way of knowing whether the cargo on these flights are iPads, though.

    Based on the above calculations, 3.4 million new iPads sold over opening weekend is certainly possible.

    Note I’m not even including UPS in this yet, because I can’t be sure which UPS flights have iPads and not iPhones. 

    Edit: updated to add FDX48

    Yeah!  It turns out calculating air cargo capacity DOES work!

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  • Posted: 19 March 2012 06:14 PM #84

    So apple did 4,600,000 iPads Q2 2011.  It sold 3 million new iPads in a weekend which is 66% of the previous year quarterly numbers.  Look out for a crazy quarter report in April.

         
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    Posted: 19 March 2012 06:16 PM #85

    Don’t get TOO overboard.

    Depending on demand Apple may not have moved as many iPad 2s up ‘til March 16 as you’d think.

    At this point I’m not thinking sequential increase in iPads sold.

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    Posted: 19 March 2012 06:27 PM #86

    Congrats to moltenfire (3.4M) and Mav (can’t see more than 3M)!!!

    moltenfire, your reasoning sounds pretty spot on. There may be 400K in inventory at the retail stores. All the stores seems to have some stock available.  i.e. the ideal case for the stores to have just enough to meet the daily demand.

    Tim Cook and his team have done a tremendous job in meeting demand.

    I was quite a bit off.  I think I was thinking 6M in total iPad sales.

         
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    Posted: 19 March 2012 06:30 PM #87

    moltenfire - 19 March 2012 08:47 PM
    moltenfire - 18 March 2012 03:14 AM

    While tracking my new iPad on FlightAware today (it’s on FDX98 BTW), I thought it would be interesting to estimate sales through air cargo flights from HK to Anchorage, Memphis, and Louisville (these are the sorting points for UPS & FedEx).

    I realize that not all FedEx or UPS flights from HKG contain new iPads.  Some may contain new iPhones, or even non Apple products too.

    But my new iPad’s on FDX98, so for this purpose, I’m going to assume this flight, and this flight alone, contains all new iPads.


    Looking at FedEx:
    http://flightaware.com/live/fleet/FDX

    FDX98, from HKG to MEM, is a Boeing 777 with a cargo capacity of 23,051 cu ft (653 m3) 37 ? pallets according to Wikipedia.  This flight is made once a day, seven days a week.  I’m assuming this entire flight is new iPads, since the tracking for my new iPad coincides with the flight times for this flight.

    The shipping weight of one new iPad with box is probably about 750g (650g+100g for box & charger), and the dimensions of one new iPad box is about 0.001342611 m^3, using the length & height of an actual iPad and 3 cm as the depth of the box.

    Assuming the entire cargo hold is full of new iPads, this would yield 486365 iPads per flight if limited by the size of the box, and 155221 iPads per flight if limited by weight (max landing weight minus max landing weight).

    If sales >= supply, and all the iPads sold over the 1st weekend plus preorders were shipped in the last two weeks (14 flights), FDX98 alone has shipped 2.17 million iPads.  I’m assuming this FedEx flight has only iPads and no other iDevices on board. 

    Still looking at FedEx, FDX48 from Shenzhen to Anchorage is also a Boeing 777, and flies between these cities 4 days a week.  This seems so similar to FDX98 that I’m assuming this flight contains new iPads too.  This gives us 1.24 million iPads in the last two weeks (8 flights).  I have no sure way of knowing whether the cargo on these flights are iPads, though.

    Based on the above calculations, 3.4 million new iPads sold over opening weekend is certainly possible.

    Note I’m not even including UPS in this yet, because I can’t be sure which UPS flights have iPads and not iPhones. 

    Edit: updated to add FDX48

    Yeah!  It turns out calculating air cargo capacity DOES work!

    Did your air freight calculation just apply to the US - or did it include the other 9 countries it launched in at the same time also?

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    Posted: 19 March 2012 06:31 PM #88

    Nevyn - 19 March 2012 09:27 PM

    Congrats to moltenfire (3.4M) and Mav (can’t see more than 3M)!!!

    moltenfire, your reasoning sounds pretty spot on. There may be 400K in inventory at the retail stores. All the stores seems to have some stock available.  i.e. the ideal case for the stores to have just enough to meet the daily demand.

    Tim Cook and his team have done a tremendous job in meeting demand.

    I was quite a bit off.  I think I was thinking 6M in total iPad sales.

    Small correction.  I did adjust my WAG after that.  wink

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    Posted: 19 March 2012 06:34 PM #89

    Man I was way too optimistic! (happenning a lot today).

    Congrats to those who predicted 3 million.

    Can anyone see us getting over 10 million for the quarter now?

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    Posted: 19 March 2012 06:40 PM #90

    Burgess - 19 March 2012 09:30 PM
    moltenfire - 19 March 2012 08:47 PM
    moltenfire - 18 March 2012 03:14 AM

    While tracking my new iPad on FlightAware today (it’s on FDX98 BTW), I thought it would be interesting to estimate sales through air cargo flights from HK to Anchorage, Memphis, and Louisville (these are the sorting points for UPS & FedEx).

    I realize that not all FedEx or UPS flights from HKG contain new iPads.  Some may contain new iPhones, or even non Apple products too.

    But my new iPad’s on FDX98, so for this purpose, I’m going to assume this flight, and this flight alone, contains all new iPads.


    Looking at FedEx:
    http://flightaware.com/live/fleet/FDX

    FDX98, from HKG to MEM, is a Boeing 777 with a cargo capacity of 23,051 cu ft (653 m3) 37 ? pallets according to Wikipedia.  This flight is made once a day, seven days a week.  I’m assuming this entire flight is new iPads, since the tracking for my new iPad coincides with the flight times for this flight.

    The shipping weight of one new iPad with box is probably about 750g (650g+100g for box & charger), and the dimensions of one new iPad box is about 0.001342611 m^3, using the length & height of an actual iPad and 3 cm as the depth of the box.

    Assuming the entire cargo hold is full of new iPads, this would yield 486365 iPads per flight if limited by the size of the box, and 155221 iPads per flight if limited by weight (max landing weight minus max landing weight).

    If sales >= supply, and all the iPads sold over the 1st weekend plus preorders were shipped in the last two weeks (14 flights), FDX98 alone has shipped 2.17 million iPads.  I’m assuming this FedEx flight has only iPads and no other iDevices on board. 

    Still looking at FedEx, FDX48 from Shenzhen to Anchorage is also a Boeing 777, and flies between these cities 4 days a week.  This seems so similar to FDX98 that I’m assuming this flight contains new iPads too.  This gives us 1.24 million iPads in the last two weeks (8 flights).  I have no sure way of knowing whether the cargo on these flights are iPads, though.

    Based on the above calculations, 3.4 million new iPads sold over opening weekend is certainly possible.

    Note I’m not even including UPS in this yet, because I can’t be sure which UPS flights have iPads and not iPhones. 

    Edit: updated to add FDX48

    Yeah!  It turns out calculating air cargo capacity DOES work!

    Did your air freight calculation just apply to the US - or did it include the other 9 countries it launched in at the same time also?

    Well, I assume it’s worldwide since international shipments are also supposed to get sorted through the US “superhubs”.

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    My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.
    —Jack Layton