iPad (3rd Gen) 1st Weekend Sales Predictions

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    Posted: 19 March 2012 06:41 PM #91

    I think Apple can do it, assuming 5M or more new iPads SOLD to customers by the end of the month.  I’m not sure whether my 5M estimate of iPads sold through 3/15/12 is conservative enough.  I _think_ it is, but estimating iPad is tough to do!

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  • Posted: 19 March 2012 07:12 PM #92

    Burgess - 19 March 2012 09:34 PM

    Man I was way too optimistic! (happenning a lot today).

    Congrats to those who predicted 3 million.

    Can anyone see us getting over 10 million for the quarter now?

    we are already 33% there in 1 weekend, I see we will see closer to 12m this quarter.

         
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    Posted: 20 March 2012 06:25 AM #93

    Phoebear611 - 16 March 2012 11:44 AM

    What is the general WS consensus on the number of iPads that will be sold for this weekend and for this quarter?

    (...)

    “Gene Munster expects 1M+ units to be sold on Friday, the device’s first day of retail availability, and thinks Street estimates for 10.1M FQ2 sales could be conservative.”

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  • Posted: 20 March 2012 08:36 AM #94

    moltenfire - 19 March 2012 09:40 PM
    Burgess - 19 March 2012 09:30 PM
    moltenfire - 19 March 2012 08:47 PM

    Yeah!  It turns out calculating air cargo capacity DOES work!

    Did your air freight calculation just apply to the US - or did it include the other 9 countries it launched in at the same time also?

    Well, I assume it’s worldwide since international shipments are also supposed to get sorted through the US “superhubs”.

    It looks like that’s not the case for Australian bound iPads anyway - example tracking for launch day delivery:

    15 Mar 2012 16:55:17 Melbourne Shipment Received At Destination Depot
    13 Mar 2012 09:59:00 Shenzhen Receiver Requested New Delivery Date 
    13 Mar 2012 08
    :33:09 Sydney Shipment Received At Transit Point
    13 Mar 2012 08:27:00 Sydney Shipment In Transit
    11 Mar 2012 20:08:42 Hong Kong Shipment In Transit
    11 Mar 2012 10:49:10 Hong Kong Shipment In Transit
    10 Mar 2012 22:23:18 Hong Kong Shipment Received At Transit Point
    10 Mar 2012 19:05:00 Shenzhen Shipment In Transit
    10 Mar 2012 18:51:18 Shenzhen Shipment In Transit
    10 Mar 2012 16:11:33 Shenzhen Shipment Collected From Sender

    I’d imagine Japan bound ones, also go direct but I haven’t seen any tracking examples.  Tracking for French deliveries seems to start in Eindhoven (NL), Swiss in Piacenza (Italy) and UK in Nuneaton (UK), so it’s not possible to see how they made their way to Europe.  I think direct flights would be more likely though.

         
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    Posted: 20 March 2012 01:42 PM #95

    This puts our 3 million units into perspective.

    http://www.cultofmac.com/154846/apple-sold-more-new-ipads-in-one-weekend-than-25-of-all-android-tablets-ever/

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  • Posted: 20 March 2012 09:47 PM #96

    And some of the 3 million iPads sold over the almost 4 days of sales were flown back to China in suitcases.

    How many iPads?
    How many suitcases?
    How many flights?

    http://www.techinasia.com/200000-new-ipads-smuggled-into-shenzhen-china/

    Report: Already 200,000 New iPads Smuggled Into Shenzhen, China

    Chinese media are quoting grey importers ? those who smuggle gadgets across borders, evading taxes and making a quick profit ? as saying that there are already more than 200,000 new iPad models in the mainland Chinese city of Shenzhen.

    ...

    But ethnic Chinese immigrants and overseas Chinese students have been ensuring that plenty are coming in from the US as well, with a noticeable number of queuers at Apple stores in American cities being ethnic Chinese in the business of buying numerous devices so as to pass them on to the grey importers.

    How much is this worth to the gadget mules? Those in the US are reportedly netting about US$20 for each iPad they buy and pass on to the smugglers. In Hong Kong, the fee is a lower 80 RMB ($12.65). But that still can represent a very lucrative business for the cross-border carriers, who are often mainland Chinese who would very likely earn less per day doing a conventional job. The rest of the price mark-up that gets passed onto consumers is dictated by the main grey import agents depending on the balance of supply and demand. It?s conceivable that some of the very first smuggled new iPads into mainland China will change hands for as much as 10,000 RMB ($1,580), before the price settles down to a more routine level that?s only, say, 500 RMB above the proper retail price.

    ...

    50,000 per day? It begins to put the effort into perspective. And it should convince you there is some money to be made with such efforts.

    The Cult of Mac website shows a photo of a suitcase that has about 40 iPads in it.

    Let’s ignore those ten thousand sold in nearby Hong Kong that will find their way to Shenzhen for the exercise.

    Using the photo count of about 40 iPads to a suitcase (60 pounds per suitcase falls within the acceptable weight for most flights out of the US to Hong Kong but not many other countries), the 50,000 iPads per day brought back to China would require 1,250 suitcases and many hundreds of people to go along with them on the flight yet alone those waiting in a line at an Apple Store or for a courier delivery somewhere.

    Or maybe like Apple did with reserving all the cargo flights, they are using pallets and buying courier cargo space back to Shenzhen?

    http://www.cultofmac.com/154817/over-200000-new-ipads-have-already-been-smuggled-into-one-chinese-city-report/

         
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    Posted: 20 March 2012 10:36 PM #97

    Horace Deidu just posted this interesting graph:

    http://twitpic.com/8ywr6y

    If this implies sales of iPhone 4 levels in its first year, then we could be in for an amazing year…

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    Posted: 21 March 2012 05:59 AM #98

    As posted in the Intraday thread I was at the Frankfurt (Germany) Apple store today and I have to admit that there was an unsually high number of Asian tourists there. 

    At 3pm the store was 3/4 full. They were out of all the Wi-Fi iPad models and could not tell me when they would be in stock again. If I would order online it would take 1-2 weeks. All 4G models are available in the store. When I asked how many new iPads they sell per day the guy just said many. When I asked ?like 500 units?? he answered with a big grin ?significantly more?.

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  • Posted: 21 March 2012 06:25 AM #99

    Perhaps someone has mentioned this previously, but I don’t recall it.  I pre-ordered my iPad and received it on that first Friday (2, actually).  I just checked my Amex account and was billed for it a week earlier when it was first shipped.  Since Apple books when billed does this mean that my two iPads were not included in the “First three days of sales.”?

    My guess is not!  If my suspicion is right, it’s just another example of Apple sandbagging while telling the truth.  The real number for opening sales could be much closer to six million or more.

         
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    Posted: 21 March 2012 05:41 PM #100

    Not sure if anyone already posted, but this is what I received back from Apple investor relations today:

    “The 3M new iPads included all new iPads that SHIPPED. ?So it would include new iPads sold through our brick and mortar retail stores, new iPads sold into the channel (i.e. Best Buy) and new iPads sold (and delivered) via our Apple online store.

    The accounting rules are such that we cannot recognize the sale to an end user until it is received by the end user (FOB destination). ?However, we recognize sales upon shipment into the channel (FOB origin).

    Hope that helps,
    Joan Hoover
    Apple Investor Relations”

         
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    Posted: 21 March 2012 06:10 PM #101

    That is a MUCH better answer than Ms. Hoover gave me.

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  • Posted: 21 March 2012 06:30 PM #102

    Wait - so all those people who are waiting one to two weeks who ordered on that weekend are still not accounted for, right?  Their numbers have yet to be added in, correct?

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    Posted: 21 March 2012 06:42 PM #103

    Phoebear611 - 21 March 2012 09:30 PM

    Wait - so all those people who are waiting one to two weeks who ordered on that weekend are still not accounted for, right?  Their numbers have yet to be added in, correct?

    That would be correct. They seem to be catching up though. My buddy ordered last week and had an early April estimated date. It is now being delivered tomorrow.  More sales for this quarter!!!

         
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    Posted: 21 March 2012 06:44 PM #104

    Yeah, I figured Apple PR would have to be consistent with Apple Accounting.  So revenue recognition rules apply, which is only logical.

    All pre-ordered iPads not actually received by end users (people ordering direct) are not sales even if shipped - the user must pre-sign or sign.  And you know there were a bunch of pre-orders yet to deliver on launch day.

    Why Ms. Hoover wasn’t so nice and clear when she replied to my e-mail…well, at least it’s clear now.

    Anyway, pre-orders delivering to the US… throw in pre-orders being delivered to all the other launch countries this Friday…a continuing stream of sales…

    I wouldn’t expect a _second_ update from Apple (though I’d love it), but I think I can do the math.  8M total iPads sold since March 16th doesn’t sound overly unrealistic now.  You might even call it…reasonable? :bugeyed:

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    AFB Night Owl Team™
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  • Posted: 21 March 2012 08:15 PM #105

    Also - I know of a few people who had FedEx issues as well as UPS issues and didn’t get theirs until TUESDAY.  So if there were several like that (customer had not signed for it), those weren’t counted either.  Tomorrow - I think before the open - FedEx reports. I wonder if they will say anything about business with AAPL.  Doubtful…but still wonder.

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