New iPad sales in FQ2

  • Posted: 21 March 2012 06:30 PM

    Three million the first 3 days

    10 days left in the quarter.

    US online store shows shipping in 1 to 2 weeks.

    Still small lunchtime lines at the Pioneer Place Apple store in Portland, OR.

    Introduction in 25 new countries in two days.

    Is anyone thinking over 7 million new iPads?

    How many iPad 2 units?

    I might be starting to :drool:

         
  • Posted: 21 March 2012 09:22 PM #1

    Horace has his estimate out

    12.2 million, 160% year over year

    See it all, the iPad and his other estimates

    Horace Deidu’s Estimates for Apple’s second fiscal quarter

         
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    Posted: 21 March 2012 10:04 PM #2

    The iPad number is tricky in a launch qtr.  If we look back a couple qtrs, Apple sold over 11M so about 850K per week.  My numbers 8 weeks at 850K two weeks at 500K because of announcement and 6.5M for iPad New launch.  I’m in the 14-14.3, but my iPhone number is around 34M, since the ASP between the devices is similar the overall revenue number is about the same.

         
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    Posted: 21 March 2012 10:26 PM #3

    I am thinking 16 million.

    They sold 15 last quarter.  With the new one and the price reduction I say they surpassed last quarter.

    Demand seems to be accelerating simply because they can build them faster. 

    Unlike the iPhone those who buy, do so when are ready and aren’t too concerned about a new one around the corner.

    The 3 million starting figure is proof enough that demand is stronger then we all realized.

         
  • Posted: 22 March 2012 09:48 AM #4

    pats - 22 March 2012 01:04 AM

    The iPad number is tricky in a launch qtr.  If we look back a couple qtrs, Apple sold over 11M so about 850K per week.  My numbers 8 weeks at 850K two weeks at 500K because of announcement and 6.5M for iPad New launch.  I’m in the 14-14.3, but my iPhone number is around 34M, since the ASP between the devices is similar the overall revenue number is about the same.

    So, if Horace is right on his iPhone number (37.3 million) and you are correct on your iPad number, it will be quite a quarter smile

    We’ll find out if faster supply ramp is the Tim Cook stamp on the first two product introductions of his time.  I suspect it will be.

         
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    Posted: 22 March 2012 01:08 PM #5

    I can see Horace’s iPad number. Mine is at 11 million.

    However, where do you guys get the high iPhone number from?

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    Posted: 22 March 2012 01:23 PM #6

    Quarter 2 expectations(according to Fidelity.com), is that AAPL’s EPS should be around 9.75, which is 4.12 less than last quarter. I think we should blow that out of the water, IMHO.

         
  • Posted: 22 March 2012 01:26 PM #7

    Big Al - 22 March 2012 04:08 PM

    I can see Horace’s iPad number. Mine is at 11 million.

    However, where do you guys get the high iPhone number from?

    The last two fiscal years there has been FQ1 to FQ2 sequential growth for the iPhone.

    This year features China and China Telecom, on top of Sprint and other CDMA carriers globally

         
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    Posted: 22 March 2012 01:46 PM #8

    roni - 22 March 2012 04:26 PM
    Big Al - 22 March 2012 04:08 PM

    I can see Horace’s iPad number. Mine is at 11 million.

    However, where do you guys get the high iPhone number from?

    The last two fiscal years there has been FQ1 to FQ2 sequential growth for the iPhone.

    This year features China and China Telecom, on top of Sprint and other CDMA carriers globally

    But FQ1 2012 is special since…

    1) demand was higher because of the longer wait for a new model (16 months)
    2) 3 carriers in the US and all major international markets except China
    3) release conincided with holiday season
    4) 14 weeks instead of 13

    That’s why I think that meeting the 37 billion revenue number from Q1 will be harder than in the previous Q2 quarters.

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    Posted: 22 March 2012 01:48 PM #9

    agileandswift - 22 March 2012 04:23 PM

    Quarter 2 expectations(according to Fidelity.com), is that AAPL’s EPS should be around 9.75, which is 4.12 less than last quarter. I think we should blow that out of the water, IMHO.

    My lowest end EPS estimate is still 10 % above 9.75.  My official estimate is $ 12.50.

         
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    Posted: 22 March 2012 01:56 PM #10

    Tetrachloride - 22 March 2012 04:48 PM
    agileandswift - 22 March 2012 04:23 PM

    Quarter 2 expectations(according to Fidelity.com), is that AAPL’s EPS should be around 9.75, which is 4.12 less than last quarter. I think we should blow that out of the water, IMHO.

    My lowest end EPS estimate is still 10 % above 9.75.  My official estimate is $ 12.50.


    If, and ONLY if we see and EPS of $12.50, we will gap 10% from the current price(640-650), which means we will see 700 immediately after earnings, IMHO.

         
  • Posted: 22 March 2012 02:38 PM #11

    Big Al - 22 March 2012 04:46 PM
    roni - 22 March 2012 04:26 PM
    Big Al - 22 March 2012 04:08 PM

    I can see Horace’s iPad number. Mine is at 11 million.

    However, where do you guys get the high iPhone number from?

    The last two fiscal years there has been FQ1 to FQ2 sequential growth for the iPhone.

    This year features China and China Telecom, on top of Sprint and other CDMA carriers globally

    But FQ1 2012 is special since…

    1) demand was higher because of the longer wait for a new model (16 months)
    2) 3 carriers in the US and all major international markets except China
    3) release conincided with holiday season
    4) 14 weeks instead of 13

    That’s why I think that meeting the 37 billion revenue number from Q1 will be harder than in the previous Q2 quarters.

    Good points Big Al

    We’ll get the number in a few weeks

         
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    Posted: 22 March 2012 03:17 PM #12

    I think you mean the 37M iPhone number.

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    Posted: 22 March 2012 04:38 PM #13

    Remember Q3 when iphones missed because people were waiting for the 4S launch.  While I don’t think it affected people not getting ipad2 as much as people not getting iphone4, it still probably has some impact.  At least this quarter we do get a few weeks of ipad3’s and lower cost ipad2’s, but does that make up for people slowing down buying in Jan/Feb to wait for the ipad3? 

    Plus the 15mil last quarter was a holiday season.  Beating that would be insane.

         
  • Posted: 29 March 2012 01:03 AM #14

    I did my part today.  Went to Apple Store to get girlfriend the new iPad.  Ended up buying one for here, and one for me.  We both have iPad 1s.  The sales associate I normally speak with says sales have not slowed since launch and they have all models in stock.  What I can tell you for fact is that they had the ones I wanted: 32GB WIFI/4G, one black, and one white.

    Apple Store online continues to show 1 - 2 weeks shipping time.

    [ Edited: 29 March 2012 01:06 AM by Gregg Thurman ]

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    Posted: 29 March 2012 01:26 AM #15

    Gregg Thurman - 29 March 2012 04:03 AM

    I did my part today.  Went to Apple Store to get girlfriend the new iPad.  Ended up buying one for here, and one for me.  We both have iPad 1s.  The sales associate I normally speak with says sales have not slowed since launch and they have all models in stock.  What I can tell you for fact is that they had the ones I wanted: 32GB WIFI/4G, one black, and one white.

    Apple Store online continues to show 1 - 2 weeks shipping time.

    About 10 days ago, I also took one (or in this case three) for the team.  Bought the wife an 11” MB Air and both kids the new iPad.  Christmas in March.  Who needs a cash divvy?  smile

    I know I am really going to take grief for this next statement, but I have yet to open the New iPad I pre-ordered and received on March 16.  Don’t worry friends, it will still count for this quarter.  Ok, let the shellacking begin!  smile