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AAPL Q2 Estimates
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I expect Q2 EPS $12.5 ; will up the trailing one year EPS to 41.5 ; with some luck we could see AAPL @ $650
That would be a ttm P/E of 15.7
Do you think the P/E will compress from its current ~17 with earnings of $12.50?
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I expect Q2 EPS $12.5 ; will up the trailing one year EPS to 41.5 ; with some luck we could see AAPL @ $650
That would be a ttm P/E of 15.7
Do you think the P/E will compress from its current ~17 with earnings of $12.50?
Butting in here with my opinion:
I’ll be VERY surprised if Q2 comes in outside 12 +- 0.5. However, predicting the actual share price (a week after the earnings release) is much harder. My WAG PE range is 15-17 so that “should” put aapl somewhere around $650 +- 50 depending on the actual earnings and the overall market and guidance. Just musing here, but I would be very happy with 650 by mid April…............... given that I originally expected that # around the end of the year.cheers to all
JohnG -
I expect Q2 EPS $12.5 ; will up the trailing one year EPS to 41.5 ; with some luck we could see AAPL @ $650
That would be a ttm P/E of 15.7
Do you think the P/E will compress from its current ~17 with earnings of $12.50?
Yes, I think the current 17 anticipate coming earnings.
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I expect Q2 EPS $12.5 ; will up the trailing one year EPS to 41.5 ; with some luck we could see AAPL @ $650
That would be a ttm P/E of 15.7
Do you think the P/E will compress from its current ~17 with earnings of $12.50?
Yes, I think the current 17 anticipate coming earnings.
Does that mean, in your opinion, that the earnings run-up has already happened or, does AAPL run higher pre-earnings.
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Does that mean, in your opinion, that the earnings run-up has already happened or, does AAPL run higher pre-earnings.
In my opinion the current price accounts for trailing earnings greater than 35 and the P/E ratio post earning could go back toward 15 with $42 trailing earnings.
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New AAPL buyers should help support/expand its P/E going forward. I’m hopeful we’ll keep at least a P/E of 16 post -earnings, which suggests $650-$675 PPS. Plus, iPhone 5—er, the New iPhone—is on the Horizon. Between that, we will likely have new MacBook Pros that will be more than an evolutionary upgrade.
But Wall Street is Wall Street and the usual caveats apply
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
New AAPL buyers should help support/expand its P/E going forward. I’m hopeful we’ll keep at least a P/E of 16 post -earnings, which suggests $650-$675 PPS. Plus, iPhone 5—er, the New iPhone—is on the Horizon. Between that, we will likely have new MacBook Pros that will be more than an evolutionary upgrade.
But Wall Street is Wall Street and the usual caveats apply
Apple: Focus On Earnings Growth, Not The Earnings Multiple
The market will continue to play catch up on the multiple as long as triple-digit or near-triple-digit earnings growth continues. For valuation purposes, a multiple of 15x times trailing 12-month earnings is more than sufficient to move the share price dramatically higher over the next nine months.
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New AAPL buyers should help support/expand its P/E going forward. I’m hopeful we’ll keep at least a P/E of 16 post -earnings, which suggests $650-$675 PPS. Plus, iPhone 5—er, the New iPhone—is on the Horizon. Between that, we will likely have new MacBook Pros that will be more than an evolutionary upgrade.
But Wall Street is Wall Street and the usual caveats apply
Apple: Focus On Earnings Growth, Not The Earnings Multiple
The market will continue to play catch up on the multiple as long as triple-digit or near-triple-digit earnings growth continues. For valuation purposes, a multiple of 15x times trailing 12-month earnings is more than sufficient to move the share price dramatically higher over the next nine months.
Yes, a 15 multiple moves the share price dramatically higher. My calls and LEAPS are set up to do very well at considerably lower levels, but…..
The sentence of DT’s that I bolded seems to carry a fairly strong implication of a rising multiple, though. Did I misread that sentence?
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adamthompson32
- [ Ignore ]
If iPhone units are up sequentially the stock will be up ~$50 the day after earnings (almost regardless of pre-earnings PPS). Nothing else matters (nearly as much).
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
New AAPL buyers should help support/expand its P/E going forward. I’m hopeful we’ll keep at least a P/E of 16 post -earnings, which suggests $650-$675 PPS. Plus, iPhone 5—er, the New iPhone—is on the Horizon. Between that, we will likely have new MacBook Pros that will be more than an evolutionary upgrade.
But Wall Street is Wall Street and the usual caveats apply
Apple: Focus On Earnings Growth, Not The Earnings Multiple
The market will continue to play catch up on the multiple as long as triple-digit or near-triple-digit earnings growth continues. For valuation purposes, a multiple of 15x times trailing 12-month earnings is more than sufficient to move the share price dramatically higher over the next nine months.
Yes, a 15 multiple moves the share price dramatically higher. My calls and LEAPS are set up to do very well at considerably lower levels, but…..
The sentence of DT’s that I bolded seems to carry a fairly strong implication of a rising multiple, though. Did I misread that sentence?
Ron:
I expect the multiple to gradually rise as the pace of earnings growth begins to slow. I know that sounds odd, but currently the rate of share price appreciation does not match the rate of earnings growth. The recent advance to around $600 per share is only a retracing of the valuation relative to earnings from more than one year ago. In other words, the share price advance is backfilling a lagging performance over the past 12 months.
I’m not expecting a significant rise in the multiple as long as earnings are rising at or need a triple-digit pace. Following the release of the next iteration of the iPhone, the holiday quarter for the iPad and perhaps addition of China Mobile as a carrier, I expect the rates of revenue and earnings growth to begin to moderate. That’s not a bad thing. As the rates go growth begin to slow, the market may award a higher earnings multiple with the share price rising more in synch with growth and at a higher multiple than what the market can and will award today.
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adamthompson32
- [ Ignore ]
New AAPL buyers should help support/expand its P/E going forward. I’m hopeful we’ll keep at least a P/E of 16 post -earnings, which suggests $650-$675 PPS. Plus, iPhone 5—er, the New iPhone—is on the Horizon. Between that, we will likely have new MacBook Pros that will be more than an evolutionary upgrade.
But Wall Street is Wall Street and the usual caveats apply
Apple: Focus On Earnings Growth, Not The Earnings Multiple
The market will continue to play catch up on the multiple as long as triple-digit or near-triple-digit earnings growth continues. For valuation purposes, a multiple of 15x times trailing 12-month earnings is more than sufficient to move the share price dramatically higher over the next nine months.
Yes, a 15 multiple moves the share price dramatically higher. My calls and LEAPS are set up to do very well at considerably lower levels, but…..
The sentence of DT’s that I bolded seems to carry a fairly strong implication of a rising multiple, though. Did I misread that sentence?Ron:
I expect the multiple to gradually rise as the pace of earnings growth begins to slow. I know that sounds odd, but currently the rate of share price appreciation does not match the rate of earnings growth. The recent advance to around $600 per share is only a retracing of the valuation relative to earnings from more than one year ago. In other words, the share price advance is backfilling a lagging performance over the past 12 months.
I’m not expecting a significant rise in the multiple as long as earnings are rising at or need a triple-digit pace. Following the release of the next iteration of the iPhone, the holiday quarter for the iPad and perhaps addition of China Mobile as a carrier, I expect the rates of revenue and earnings growth to begin to moderate. That’s not a bad thing. As the rates go growth begin to slow, the market may award a higher earnings multiple with the share price rising more in synch with growth and at a higher multiple than what the market can and will award today.
Although I can’t see why that would be the case at all, I sure as heck hope you’re right. We are looking at $100+ EPS in FY14. I think we will have a P/E lower than the S&P 500’s at that time but it’ll be mostly irrelevant relative to today’s stock price.
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DawnTreader
- [ Ignore ]
Please remember the broad market’s move higher will have a positive impact on the multiple and the share price. But earnings and earnings growth will remain the primary catalysts for share price appreciation.
The recent expansion of the multiple is due in part to the broad market’s moves and in part due to the fact analysts now have more confidence in modeling the iPad’s potential. I’ve said countless times the iPad remains in a nascent phase of global market development. Analysts are now beginning to grasp the global unit sales potential of this popular device.
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Horace Dediu estimates the following for Q2 (see asymco.com):
* iPhone units: 37.3 million (100%)
* Macs: 4.7 million (25%)
* iPads: 12.2 million (160%)
* iPods: 7 million (-22%)
* Music (incl. app) rev. growth: 40%
* Peripherals rev. growth: 25%
* Software rev. growth: 10%
* Total revenues: $42.7 billion (growth: 73%)
* GM: 44.7%
* EPS: $12.0 (88%)I do not understand how he gets to a revenue number of only 42.7 billion with that kind of unit sales?
When I insert the above unit numbers into my model I receive a revenue number (keeping the ASPs constant from Q1) of 48.2 billion.
Do you guys get the same revenue number with Horace’s unit sales?
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“Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.” Albert Einstein
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Ron:
I expect the multiple to gradually rise as the pace of earnings growth begins to slow. I know that sounds odd, but currently the rate of share price appreciation does not match the rate of earnings growth. The recent advance to around $600 per share is only a retracing of the valuation relative to earnings from more than one year ago. In other words, the share price advance is backfilling a lagging performance over the past 12 months.
I’m not expecting a significant rise in the multiple as long as earnings are rising at or need a triple-digit pace. Following the release of the next iteration of the iPhone, the holiday quarter for the iPad and perhaps addition of China Mobile as a carrier, I expect the rates of revenue and earnings growth to begin to moderate. That’s not a bad thing. As the rates go growth begin to slow, the market may award a higher earnings multiple with the share price rising more in synch with growth and at a higher multiple than what the market can and will award today.
Thanks for the reply, Robert. My only thought is this: as TTM earnings go over $40 a share and then approach and surpass $50 a share, a gradual rise in the P/E ratio will be significant
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FY2012
Q2 Revenue Units ASP
(millions) (thousands)
CPU 5418 4300 1260
iPods 990 6000 165
iPhones 26650 41000 650
iPads 8100 13500 600
Music 1800
Periph 600
Software 700
TOTAL $ 44.258 billion
GM 43.7 %
EPS $ 12.90Gross Revenue 44258
COGS 24917
Gross Income 19341
OpEx 3450
OperatingIncome 15891
OI&E 130
PreTax 16021
Taxes 3845 (24 %)
Net 12176
Shares 944
EPS $ 12.90On this officially submitted estimate, my iPhones unit sales and OpEx might be high and Macs might be low.
