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How aapl could stumble
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As someone who is all-in—and I mean ALL-in—on AAPL common, I am constantly on the lookout for cracks in the story.
Call it the “put all your eggs in one basket, and watch that basket very closely” style of investing
This link strikes me as pretty thin gruel, but I would welcome the perspectives of my fellow AFBers.
http://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-ways-apple-could-stumble-195201205.html
There was also a story on AppleInsider this weekend about how Steve Jobs rejected the new look of AppleTV’s new home screen layout as ugly. The article quoted a former Apple exec saying that with Steve gone, there was nobody at Apple to enforce high standards.
I think that line is BS too. But am I wearing rose colored glasses?
[ Edited: 26 March 2012 10:25 AM by Xtra ]Signature
One trillion or bust
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Bologna Homie…. I don’t buy it…
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Here is my view on the points mentioned in the article:
1. The magic could wear off.
In the short-term I would say certainly NO. In the mid-term, probably NOT, especially considering that people will not easily switch out of the Apple ecosystem. In the long-term, MAYBE, but by then I will be a millionaire.2. Apple’s competitors could wake up.
I don’t see any competitor that could match Apple’s advantage on hardware-software-integration. For Google, Microsoft or Samsung to take away substantial profits from Apple a lot of investments need to be made, and this takes time.3. Apple could overplay its hand with partners.
I think that Apple is smart enought to find win-win-situations with its partners.4. Apple TV could disappoint.
Might be the case. However, for my valuation I don’t even need an Apple TV for AAPL to reach 1000 USD by 2015.5. Size could become a liability.
No one argues that Apple will grow by 100% forever. But the growth rate will come down slower than many market analysts currently assume. And even though Apple is large by mkt cap it is still run in a very efficient and innovative way.So, in the short term I don’t see a way that Apple stumbles (from the fundamentals, at least). Let’s reassess again in 2015.
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“Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.” Albert Einstein
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for my valuation I don’t even need an Apple TV for AAPL to reach 1000 USD by 2015.
The iPhone alone may get us to $ 1000 by the end of 2013, if one backs out the revenues of all other products. Puts trusty sliderule back on the shelf. (actually, I don’t have one, but maybe I should).
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for my valuation I don’t even need an Apple TV for AAPL to reach 1000 USD by 2015.
The iPhone alone may get us to $ 1000 by the end of 2013, if one backs out the revenues of all other products. Puts trusty sliderule back on the shelf. (actually, I don’t have one, but maybe I should).
I try to be conservative. But you are right, my “everything-goes-great- scenario” would have AAPL hit 1000 in 2013.
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“Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.” Albert Einstein
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Thanks, I tend to agree we hit 1,000 long before any meaningful ceilings are approached.
TC said it himself: We see no ceilings in our markets.
Amazed how undervalued we still are, even with the great run from 360…
My only major worries are a black swan event (eg, attack on iran) or manipulated fast crash. But I keep a decent margin cushion so I could ride it out. “pigs get slaughtered,” as the saying goes.
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One trillion or bust
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One way Apple could stumble: Forget about the Pro Customers who have been so loyal through the years!
Apple’s move to a consumer-based company has made them wealthy for sure. But Consumers’ taste can turn on a dime. After all it was the loyal Mac computer fans that bought the first iPods, iPhones and iPads. They showed them off with pride to their friends and family, and thus created the Mac ecosystem. As Apple moves away from the Creative Professionals and forces them back to Windows machines to get the power they need, they will lose their loyal base. iMacs wont cut it Apple. We are the ones making the movies, the songs and the apps. Lose us and you would be making the classic mistake - bean counters are rarely right! Apple can afford to make powerful machines for Creative Artists even if they don’t have mass-market appeal. And the best Professional software should run better on an Apple computer, not an iPad.
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One way Apple could stumble: Forget about the Pro Customers who have been so loyal through the years!
Apple’s move to a consumer-based company has made them wealthy for sure. But Consumers’ taste can turn on a dime. After all it was the loyal Mac computer fans that bought the first iPods, iPhones and iPads. They showed them off with pride to their friends and family, and thus created the Mac ecosystem. As Apple moves away from the Creative Professionals and forces them back to Windows machines to get the power they need, they will lose their loyal base. iMacs wont cut it Apple. We are the ones making the movies, the songs and the apps. Lose us and you would be making the classic mistake - bean counters are rarely right! Apple can afford to make powerful machines for Creative Artists even if they don’t have mass-market appeal. And the best Professional software should run better on an Apple computer, not an iPad.
I agree. As a photographer, I have been an Apple supporter and buyer since 1987. Now the talk among many professional photographers is that if Apple drops the Mac Pro, they will be forced to migrate to Windows in order to have a powerful and flexible machine that is adaptable to their varied needs. The iMac doesn’t cut it for those of us with more specialized needs.
I fail to see why a company with Apple’s size cannot maintain a professional products emphasis. After all, the coolness factor of Apple has, in no small part, been attributable to the innovative artists and professionals who create the world of cool.
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sleepygeek
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Stalling innovation and the magic wearing off? Actually, it’s not SJ that’s required for innovation, it’s a customer base that trusts you enough to be led into the future despite the occasional blind alley. Apple could lose customer trust, but it’s unlikely. That trust takes a decade to build. Apple has also already envisioned the future a decade ahead, and each innovation is a step on the way, not a stab in the dark.
Competitors might wake up? They are already awake. But the only first step they can take is build a better gadget, which they find incredibly hard to do. And they still have no ecosystem and no trust. The winning formula has to grow from small beginnings, and in general big business leaders don’t have the patience or the vision to stick with it for ten years.
Overplay hand with partners? This is big business; partners know what they are committing to, and Apple does not make deals that lose money for their partners.
Apple TV disappoints? Wouldn’t matter. But it won’t disappoint.
Size becomes a liability? It is a limiting factor on eventual size, but isn’t a liability that will invalidate the business model.
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AndrewLing
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Funny you mention being allin. I’m a poker player who wrote an article on seeking alpha abohenhouse when you find the “nuts” or best hand possible you have to go allin. The same applies to the stock market and I practiced what I preached. Through most of the last two years I’ve had 2x my net worth in apple stock though it’s down to 1.5x now that I have enough to live comfortably.
