Forecasting this Quarter’s “Story”

  • Posted: 09 April 2012 03:08 AM #16

    Big Al, you mean why the unusually high iPhone number? Or why that number would be the quarter’s “story”?

    There are mainly three reasons why I think the iPhone number will be high:

    - Apple was short of supply during the full Dec quarter
    - late FQ1 launch in some of the big emerging economies, FQ2 launch in China (btw, we just see the tip of the iceberg in those countries, they all just began buying Apple products; I’m looking forward to the next few years)
    - I believe iPhone isn’t as much of a Christmas gift as you’d think. Last year, we had a sequential rise in FQ2 iPhone numbers. And even if it was a typical Christmas gift, I think Chinese New Year iPhones* will make up for it in FQ2.

    *The most typical gift for Chinese New Year is money. The question is what Chinese people are buying with that money smile


    My only worry is that Siri isn’t available in Russian, Chinese or Portuguese yet. Lots of Chinese people didn’t wait for the iPhone 4S like US customers did last fall and bought an iPhone 4 instead in FQ1. Tim mentioned iPhone demand in China was off the charts even without the availability of the new model.

         
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    Posted: 11 April 2012 09:35 PM #17

    FLASH: Consumers Still Want iPhones!

    Consumer interest in the iPhone 4S is greater now than it was last December, smack dab in the middle of the holiday shopping season. That?s the word from ChangeWave (via Apple 2.0, which surveyed 4,413 consumers about their smartphone purchasing plans).

    Among respondents who plan to buy a smartphone in the next three months, 56 percent said they?ll purchase an iPhone. That?s two percentage points more than ChangeWave?s last survey, taken in December of 2011.

    http://allthingsd.com/20120411/flash-consumers-still-want-iphones/

         
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    Posted: 11 April 2012 11:43 PM #18

    muah ha ha

         
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    Posted: 12 April 2012 06:13 AM #19

    Drew Bear - 12 April 2012 12:35 AM

    FLASH: Consumers Still Want iPhones!

    Consumer interest in the iPhone 4S is greater now than it was last December, smack dab in the middle of the holiday shopping season. That?s the word from ChangeWave (via Apple 2.0, which surveyed 4,413 consumers about their smartphone purchasing plans).

    Among respondents who plan to buy a smartphone in the next three months, 56 percent said they?ll purchase an iPhone. That?s two percentage points more than ChangeWave?s last survey, taken in December of 2011.

    http://allthingsd.com/20120411/flash-consumers-still-want-iphones/

    This doesn’t say anything about the actual amount of people buying smartphones in the quarter - its likely that last quarters iPhone release caused a seasonal bump in the overall smartphone yearly cycle.

    54% of December sales is likely to be larger than 56% of current sales.

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  • Posted: 12 April 2012 06:26 AM #20

    This doesn?t say anything about the actual amount of people buying smartphones in the quarter - its likely that last quarters iPhone release caused a seasonal bump in the overall smartphone yearly cycle.

    54% of December sales is likely to be larger than 56% of current sales.

    Last year iPhone sales were sequentially up 15% :
    Q1 2011   16.235 M
    Q2 2011   18,647 M

         
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    Posted: 12 April 2012 06:39 AM #21

    Hamourabi - 12 April 2012 09:26 AM

    This doesn?t say anything about the actual amount of people buying smartphones in the quarter - its likely that last quarters iPhone release caused a seasonal bump in the overall smartphone yearly cycle.

    54% of December sales is likely to be larger than 56% of current sales.

    Last year iPhone sales were sequentially up 15% :
    Q1 2011   16.235 M
    Q2 2011   18,647 M

    But last year Q1 had no iPhone launch and no 14 weeks.

    For me at least, if Apple really reports a sequential growth in iPhones sold (so, above 37 million), that would be a spectacular surprise and a strong signal for things to come.

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    Posted: 12 April 2012 09:43 AM #22

    Burgess - 12 April 2012 09:13 AM
    Drew Bear - 12 April 2012 12:35 AM

    FLASH: Consumers Still Want iPhones!

    Consumer interest in the iPhone 4S is greater now than it was last December, smack dab in the middle of the holiday shopping season…

    This doesn’t say anything about the actual amount of people buying smartphones in the quarter - its likely that last quarters iPhone release caused a seasonal bump in the overall smartphone yearly cycle.

    54% of December sales is likely to be larger than 56% of current sales.

    I agree. This is just a survey. But it is a data point of sorts that helps explain why many of the iPhone estimates here approach the Dec. quarter numbers. I personally was wondering if folks were a bit too optimistic. We’ll find out in a couple of weeks.

         
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    Posted: 12 April 2012 04:56 PM #23

    Hamourabi - 12 April 2012 09:26 AM

    This doesn?t say anything about the actual amount of people buying smartphones in the quarter - its likely that last quarters iPhone release caused a seasonal bump in the overall smartphone yearly cycle.

    54% of December sales is likely to be larger than 56% of current sales.

    Last year iPhone sales were sequentially up 15% :
    Q1 2011   16.235 M
    Q2 2011   18,647 M

    Q2 2011 also had the Verizon launch.

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    Posted: 12 April 2012 10:03 PM #24

    Burgess - 12 April 2012 07:56 PM
    Hamourabi - 12 April 2012 09:26 AM

    This doesn?t say anything about the actual amount of people buying smartphones in the quarter - its likely that last quarters iPhone release caused a seasonal bump in the overall smartphone yearly cycle.

    54% of December sales is likely to be larger than 56% of current sales.

    Last year iPhone sales were sequentially up 15% :
    Q1 2011   16.235 M
    Q2 2011   18,647 M

    Q2 2011 also had the Verizon launch.

    And Q2 2012 China had a the 4S launch, added China Telecom in March, all during the Chinese New Year, the biggest holiday of year in China.

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    Posted: 13 April 2012 03:38 AM #25

    afterglow - 13 April 2012 01:03 AM
    Burgess - 12 April 2012 07:56 PM
    Hamourabi - 12 April 2012 09:26 AM

    This doesn?t say anything about the actual amount of people buying smartphones in the quarter - its likely that last quarters iPhone release caused a seasonal bump in the overall smartphone yearly cycle.

    54% of December sales is likely to be larger than 56% of current sales.

    Last year iPhone sales were sequentially up 15% :
    Q1 2011   16.235 M
    Q2 2011   18,647 M

    Q2 2011 also had the Verizon launch.

    And Q2 2012 China had a the 4S launch, added China Telecom in March, all during the Chinese New Year, the biggest holiday of year in China.

    True - although Verizons 100 million + subscribers is far larger than China Telecom & China unicoms 3G subscribers, and much more well off.

    Q2 2011 had 18.6 million total iphones, 2.4 million more than Q1 2011,
    Verizons Q2 2011 iphone sales:  2.2 million (I think) accounted for almost all of that sequential rise.

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