Weekend Updates - Archive

  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 05:29 PM

    The bar is OPEN!!!

    [ Edited: 16 April 2012 06:37 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 05:31 PM #1

    Gimme a Zima! LOL  (It’s all I can afford.)

    If you don’t mind me going a little less costly and non-alcoholic though?  A nice glass of well-brewed iced tea.  Free refills most places, the better to drown sorrows. wink

    We’ll be OK, everyone.  Keep discipline, stick to your plan.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 05:59 PM #2

    I freaked out a bit looking at today’s charts, but I stuck to my plan and pretty much sat on the sidelines. But I could sure use a cold one when I get home tonight.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 06:01 PM #3

    I am drinking a V8 Fusion and attempting to talk mself into transfering more cash on Monday and buying this good sale on aapl.

    The sell off in the close was not good, but we have had similar moves on Fridays only to recover nicely on Mondays.

    A part of me wants one last opportunity to buy under $600. :wink:

    It is clear that too may folks jumped on late in the game and now panicked after Tuesday’s correction.  Like Gregg said, the big boys joined in the selling and profit taking really picked up speed today.

    These are rare opportunitties where we go down so much in 4 days.  It is hard not to take advantage of them.

    I still see $700 post earnings and $800 in July.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 06:06 PM #4

    omacvi - 13 April 2012 09:01 PM

    I am drinking a V8 Fusion and attempting to talk mself into transfering more cash on Monday and buying this good sale on aapl.

    The sell off in the close was not good, but we have had similar moves on Fridays only to recover nicely on Mondays.

    A part of me wants one last opportunity to buy under $600. :wink:

    It is clear that too may folks jumped on late in the game and now panicked after Tuesday’s correction.  Like Gregg said, the big boys joined in the selling and profit taking really picked up speed today.

    These are rare opportunitties where we go down so much in 4 days.  It is hard not to take advantage of them.

    I still see $700 post earnings and $800 in July.

    Hey Omacvi,

    I’m not saying you’re wrong, but what makes you feel that way?

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 06:09 PM #5

    Have not yet read today’s Intraday posts…going there momentarily…

    I’m torn on which way I think the wind’s blowing, but we’ll find out soon enough.  Next week will be interesting.

    Random thoughts:

    A pre-earnings shakeout doesn’t surprise me.  I am, however, surprised we didn’t take back 610.  Closing TWO strikes below the highest OI for puts marks a “change.”  Additionally, this is the first time since DEC’11 that we’ve closed below SMA-20 on the daily chart.  Objectively, this makes it official: the short-term trend is now DOWN until proven otherwise.

    The first step in providing some “otherwise” evidence: we need to see a close above SMA-20 on the daily, around 613-ish. 

    We’re due for an oversold bounce, and hopefully we see a STRONG one on Monday.

    At the moment, our consolidation range is: 545-644.  I would really like to see 650-700 before 545.

    [ Edited: 13 April 2012 07:55 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 06:13 PM #6

    agileandswift - 13 April 2012 09:06 PM

    Hey Omacvi,

    I’m not saying you’re wrong, but what makes you feel that way?

    He has exactly the right mindset for a buy-and-hold long-term investor.  Short-term price fluctuations mean nothing with a long-term perspective.

         
  • Posted: 13 April 2012 06:17 PM #7

    I expect a green Monday, and probably a nicely green one, but if we don’t get that I’d expect a slide all the way into earnings.  A drop of ~6% from the intraweek high two weeks before earnings is unusual, and without a big bounce back I think that the ecosystem expects an earnings miss.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 06:17 PM #8

    agileandswift - 13 April 2012 09:06 PM
    omacvi - 13 April 2012 09:01 PM

    I am drinking a V8 Fusion and attempting to talk mself into transfering more cash on Monday and buying this good sale on aapl.

    The sell off in the close was not good, but we have had similar moves on Fridays only to recover nicely on Mondays.

    A part of me wants one last opportunity to buy under $600. :wink:

    It is clear that too may folks jumped on late in the game and now panicked after Tuesday’s correction.  Like Gregg said, the big boys joined in the selling and profit taking really picked up speed today.

    These are rare opportunitties where we go down so much in 4 days.  It is hard not to take advantage of them.

    I still see $700 post earnings and $800 in July.

    Hey Omacvi,

    I’m not saying you’re wrong, but what makes you feel that way?

    I have been buying & selling this stock now for over seven years.  I really believe that we are seeing an expansion of the p/e.  last quarter really woke WS up.  We will have corrections like this that make predicting the stock price challenging.  But I am confident Apple is now in a strong position with further demand growth backed up by adequate supply in iPhones and iPads.

    We will recover like we did in 2009, 2010, 2011, and so far in 2012.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 06:24 PM #9

    lovemyipad - 13 April 2012 09:13 PM
    agileandswift - 13 April 2012 09:06 PM

    Hey Omacvi,

    I’m not saying you’re wrong, but what makes you feel that way?

    He has exactly the right mindset for a buy-and-hold long-term investor.  Short-term price fluctuations mean nothing with a long-term perspective.

    With a twist, iPad.  With a twist.  wink

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 13 April 2012 06:39 PM #10

    Buying on weakness:  http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html

         
  • Posted: 13 April 2012 06:39 PM #11

    In a couple of hours I will pick up the iWife who has been at an outdoor challenge course with the Commission for the Blind all day - with a blindfold mask on so that she is fully blind instead of just partially so. 

    I imagine she will be ready for a glass of wine when we arrive home, and we have a selection of Cabs and red blends in the cellar (garage).

    We have had a few dry days in a row here in the PacificNorthWet, and that is cause for celebration.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 06:42 PM #12

    I have been buying & selling this stock now for over seven years.  I really believe that we are seeing an expansion of the p/e.  last quarter really woke WS up.  We will have corrections like this that make predicting the stock price challenging.  But I am confident Apple is now in a strong position with further demand growth backed up by adequate supply in iPhones and iPads.

    We will recover like we did in 2009, 2010, 2011, and so far in 2012.


    Thanks Omacvi, I just wanted to know why because you gave those dates. I understand you are an equity holder with Long-Term aspirations. Cheers 2 the Longs… grin

         
  • Posted: 13 April 2012 06:49 PM #13

    omacvi - 13 April 2012 09:17 PM

    We will recover like we did in 2009, 2010, 2011, and so far in 2012.

    Here is the visual

    and compared to the S&P and the NAS

         
  • Posted: 13 April 2012 07:10 PM #14

    The last time aapl was down for 4 consecutive days was Dec 2011.

    Link:  http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p13548293056

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 13 April 2012 07:24 PM #15

    alice - 13 April 2012 09:39 PM

    Buying on weakness:  http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html

    EXCELLENT!!!