AAPL Chart Talk

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    Posted: 14 April 2012 11:16 PM #106

    Red Shirted Ensign - 15 April 2012 01:15 AM

    Mav as a jellybean….....yes, i like it.

    Monday’s are usually good days, especially when said Monday coincides with an event like month or quarter end.. I am going to hope “tax liquidation end” also qualifies as an event.  If we can get past 10:30 A.M. On Monday with some stability and decent volume, we may see the return of the buying class.

    Do you agree, jellybean?

    You’re a creepy one, Ensign.

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  • Posted: 14 April 2012 11:20 PM #107

    rutgersguy92 - 15 April 2012 02:09 AM
    kevinhernandez - 15 April 2012 01:02 AM

    Right now 611 and 597 are my lines in the sand.

    I buy calls if Apple goes above 611 and puts under 597.

    622 is my next line.

    I have no line under 597-if you know what I mean….

    And I think Macroeconomic issues will result in 597.

    I think we need RobWill to crank out that pivot point diagram he always posts, though it might not be ready yet.

    But Kevin, is your 611 based on resistance?

    Usually-not this time-I think “that roads been traveled too much” for resistance.  If the market goes that far-that’s my psychological level-just not in the first 30 minutes.  If Apple goes that far and ‘it feels good’ and the market is with it-I’m in.

    But at this point I’m worried about being in overnight-and if we don’t pass 621 (chart resistance) early and well by Tuesday-I may be out on Tuesday.

    It’s not that I don’t believe in Apple-at this point I’m worried about the market.

    PS I LOVE Pinky and The Brain-we may gap up after earnings-but if the rest of the market isn’t there-Apple may fall most of the day-it has in the past.

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 11:40 PM #108

    rutgersguy92 - 15 April 2012 02:09 AM

    I think we need RobWill to crank out that pivot point diagram he always posts, though it might not be ready yet.

    RG, my numbers usually match willrob’s.  Here’s what I have for Monday:

    R3 653.53  
          midpoint   642.93
    R2 632.34  
          midpoint   625.56
    R1 618.78  
          midpoint   614.97
    PP 611.15  
          midpoint   604.37
    S1 597.59  
          midpoint   593.78
    S2 589.96  
          midpoint   579.36
    S3 568.77

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 11:48 PM #109

    kevinhernandez - 15 April 2012 02:20 AM
    rutgersguy92 - 15 April 2012 02:09 AM
    kevinhernandez - 15 April 2012 01:02 AM

    Right now 611 and 597 are my lines in the sand.

    I buy calls if Apple goes above 611 and puts under 597.

    622 is my next line.

    I have no line under 597-if you know what I mean….

    And I think Macroeconomic issues will result in 597.

    I think we need RobWill to crank out that pivot point diagram he always posts, though it might not be ready yet.

    But Kevin, is your 611 based on resistance?

    Usually-not this time-I think “that roads been traveled too much” for resistance.  If the market goes that far-that’s my psychological level-just not in the first 30 minutes.  If Apple goes that far and ‘it feels good’ and the market is with it-I’m in.

    But at this point I’m worried about being in overnight-and if we don’t pass 621 (chart resistance) early and well by Tuesday-I may be out on Tuesday.

    It’s not that I don’t believe in Apple-at this point I’m worried about the market.

    PS I LOVE Pinky and The Brain-we may gap up after earnings-but if the rest of the market isn’t there-Apple may fall most of the day-it has in the past.

    I agree.  It’s about capital preservation at this point.

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2012 12:37 AM #110

    rutgersguy92 - 15 April 2012 02:48 AM

    I agree.  It’s about capital preservation at this point.

    RG, at this point, reading several recent posts across various threads, I am reminded of November/December in general and specifically of your JAN’12 400-ish calls that never were.  Yes, you weren’t feeling well, and yes, you had company; but you were also highly influenced by a prevailing bearish atmosphere (including Yours Truly).  I do believe we were headed for another crash then.  But what happened?  The very next trading day after Black Friday—with everything pointing toward Armageddon—the central banks’ coordinated efforts intervened to save the day.  Overnight, the landscape drastically changed.  Again, in December, same thing with the ECB (IMF?).  Now, the market has its first haircut (not even a haircut, really, more like a trim :D) in four months, and I’m thinking: here we go again…

    I’m not quite sure, but I *suspect* that I’ve seen this movie before…  The one where just when it looks like prophesies of doom and gloom will come to fruition, the superheroes show up and save the world.

    So, I think it’s VERY important to avoid forecasting the next two weeks, to prepare for ANY outcome, and to let the market reveal itself.  As Red says: plan the trade; trade the plan.

    IMHO, an objective, unemotional game plan (like the one you mentioned) has a lot of merit—to the extent possible, neither greed- nor fear-driven.  Something that balances upside and downside risk in proportions that suit YOUR profile, no one else’s.

    [ Edited: 15 April 2012 01:48 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 15 April 2012 12:51 AM #111

    Travis has a new video looking at last week and the big expirey week coming up.

    http://aaplpain.com/?p=1910

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 15 April 2012 10:00 PM #112

    lovemyipad - 15 April 2012 03:37 AM
    rutgersguy92 - 15 April 2012 02:48 AM

    I agree.  It’s about capital preservation at this point.

    RG, at this point, reading several recent posts across various threads, I am reminded of November/December in general and specifically of your JAN’12 400-ish calls that never were.  Yes, you weren’t feeling well, and yes, you had company; but you were also highly influenced by a prevailing bearish atmosphere (including Yours Truly).  I do believe we were headed for another crash then.  But what happened?  The very next trading day after Black Friday—with everything pointing toward Armageddon—the central banks’ coordinated efforts intervened to save the day.  Overnight, the landscape drastically changed.  Again, in December, same thing with the ECB (IMF?).  Now, the market has its first haircut (not even a haircut, really, more like a trim :D) in four months, and I’m thinking: here we go again…

    I’m not quite sure, but I *suspect* that I’ve seen this movie before…  The one where just when it looks like prophesies of doom and gloom will come to fruition, the superheroes show up and save the world.

    So, I think it’s VERY important to avoid forecasting the next two weeks, to prepare for ANY outcome, and to let the market reveal itself.  As Red says: plan the trade; trade the plan.

    IMHO, an objective, unemotional game plan (like the one you mentioned) has a lot of merit—to the extent possible, neither greed- nor fear-driven.  Something that balances upside and downside risk in proportions that suit YOUR profile, no one else’s.

    Thanks for the response, Ms. IPad.  I am putting my game plan together, with what to do as the stock moves in 4 to 5 point increments.  I will have my limit orders to sell covered calls and hedging calls as it goes higher - in increasing amounts, until it clears 418 to 422 -  and maybe the same thing and/or buy weekly puts should it go lower; all depends on how the open looks.

    I also realize that there could be head fakes, so I need to be aware of that, especially on the down side.  I’ll figure out something.  But I have all the signposts (Mace’s 597.94 on the downside and 621 wall on the upside, the Gap at 568, your pivot diagram (thank you), etc.) to aid me, thanks to you and the rest of the AFB.

    But thanks for taking the time (and, by the way, you have a great memory).

    [ Edited: 15 April 2012 10:08 PM by rutgersguy92 ]      
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    Posted: 15 April 2012 10:22 PM #113

    Red Shirted Ensign - 15 April 2012 03:51 AM

    Travis has a new video looking at last week and the big expirey week coming up.

    http://aaplpain.com/?p=1910

    Very optimistic viewpoint by Travis.  Basically, just the boys playing their usual games.

    Interesting strategy he explained about buying at Friday close and selling at Tuesday close.  Never occurred to me, but makes all the sense in the world with the current pattern.

         
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    Posted: 16 April 2012 07:11 PM #114

    We’re touching the lower BB on the daily—that was FAST!  So this is where ordinarily I’d *start* scaling into longs.

    We’re ridiculously oversold and due for a bounce any second now.  Remember when all the headlines said we couldn’t sustain the parabolic rise, yet it went on?  Well, here’s the flip side: this parabolic down is unsustainable.

    The point is: one-sided (either side) cannot go on forever.  There has to be ebb and flow.  We “should” retest 600-ish.  “Should,” of course doesn’t mean “will happen next.”  As a bare minimum first step, buyers must enter on HUGE volume in order for bulls to reclaim 600.

    Downside targets: gap fill at 568 and 545-ish.

         
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    Posted: 16 April 2012 08:07 PM #115

    lovemyipad - 16 April 2012 10:11 PM

    ... We’re ridiculously oversold and due for a bounce any second now.  Remember when all the headlines said we couldn’t sustain the parabolic rise, yet it went on?  Well, here’s the flip side: this parabolic down is unsustainable ...

    So many possible patterns.  One WAG based on past AAPL behavior from late Jul to mid Aug 2007 is to decline to 50-day EMA/SMA, bounce to 20-day EMA/SMA and bottom below $516.22 but not lower than $486.63.  I interpret below $486 as certain fundamental deterioration known by smart monies but not make public yet.  Above $486, I take it as normal ebb and flow.

    Disclosure:  Leaving well-hedged option position (mostly Jan13 spreads) unchanged no matter what happened.  Placed GTC stink bids for calls equivalent to AAPL < $500.  Might change the stink bids on the fly.  Current loss = 16% below peak.  Cash > 40%.

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  • Posted: 16 April 2012 08:16 PM #116

    Scott Redler posted this a little while ago - not sure at what level he would establish the long but wanted to share his tweet:


    “AAPL on a down open i will look for long opportunity. I would love to see a Red Dog reversal set up as well”

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    Keep Calm and Carry On

         
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    Posted: 16 April 2012 09:00 PM #117

    Mace - 16 April 2012 11:07 PM

    So many possible patterns…
    ...
    Disclosure:  Leaving well-hedged option position (mostly Jan13 spreads) unchanged no matter what happened.  Placed GTC stink bids for calls equivalent to AAPL < $500.  Might change the stink bids on the fly.  Current loss = 16% below peak.  Cash > 40%.

    I could see that scenario if we fail to break 644 on retest, and Summer’12 becomes deja vu of Summer’11.  Operation Twist ends in June (?).  But I *vastly* prefer the pattern where this retrace wave finishes at 568-545-ish max, then UUUUUUUUPPPPPPPPPPPP to 700+ :D

    Disclosure: all spreads are JUL’12, OCT’12, JAN’13, or JAN’14.  But only 30% cash now and trying very, very, very hard to resist buying everything in sight.

         
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    Posted: 16 April 2012 10:20 PM #118

    I like this guy’s charts:

    AAPL “Buy” Targets

         
  • Posted: 16 April 2012 10:28 PM #119

    iPad - do you know what Cobra might be saying tonight on AAPL? He put out a tweet but I don’t subscribe to his service

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    Posted: 16 April 2012 10:45 PM #120

    Phoebear611 - 17 April 2012 01:28 AM

    iPad - do you know what Cobra might be saying tonight on AAPL? He put out a tweet but I don’t subscribe to his service

    Cobra says we’re oversold and due for a bounce, but given the severity of this leg down, it would likely be a counter-trend bounce, followed by more downside.  So watch for that.

    Usually, in an uptrend, it’s a “3 steps forward, 1 step back” dance.  This is a downtrend, so it’s “3 steps backward, 1 step forward” kind of thing.  So, for example…bounce to 600, then down to 568.

    What we want to see is a Big Ass capitulation candle on the daily.  Huge UPSIDE volume.  The candle would be green with a spiked bottom.

    [ Edited: 16 April 2012 10:49 PM by lovemyipad ]