AAPL Chart Talk

  • Avatar

    Posted: 08 September 2012 12:27 AM #1351

    Scott primarily uses the purest form of TA: trendlines.  That’s the definition of trading what you see, not what you expect to see since price trumps all other technical indicators.  You can have every other indicator pointing to an imminent breakout or breakdown, but only PRICE confirms it.  Price is the # 1 technical indicator; with a strong trend (like we had leading up to the first run to 644), divergence can go on longer than usual, but price doesn’t lie.  Scott also uses classic candlestick analysis and chart patterns, moving averages, Fibs, support and resistance.  He watches to see how price reacts at key levels—RG, that’s what’s in the Price Point Sheets—and how individual stocks move relative to the indices (relative strength or weakness).

    MACD-d is a lagging indicator, so not every trader uses it—it happens to be MY favorite, so I use it constantly!  You can also glean uptrend/downtrend info from moving averages (price relative to moving averages) and momentum info from volume.

    For oscillators (overbought/oversold), Scott uses RSI and the Chaiken Oscillator.  I use both RSI and Fast Stochastics.

    I do recall that Scott very accurately called 644 as a temporary top soon after it happened…there was relative weakness for the first time in a long time, and he said: something’s changed…it’s not acting right…and he was OUT of his longs when it broke below the daily SMA-20.  At the time, I totally blew this off.  I remembered many times when AAPL lagged (sometimes leads, sometimes lags) and didn’t think much of this particular time—why was that time different?  Well, it was.  And he knew it.

    So…I don’t know if this time is different than all the other times when it was no big deal.  All I know is that I don’t recall a day when the DJI was up 300 points, and AAPL was up 0.5%.  Do you?  Could be nothing.  Could be something.  Could be a blow-off top about to happen, with 50 points of upside in the next week.  Could be we saw our temporary top today.  Just be careful.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 08 September 2012 12:49 AM #1352

    T3 gets it wrong sometimes too of course - I wonder if Redler wants to walk back his FB call featured on Mad Money, even though how “wrong” he was depends on timeframe - but Redler and Sperling both don’t seem concerned.  I hardly “worship” them (I haven’t bought a single T3 product and I don’t even have plans to do a free trial), but they seem pretty on the ball, really.

    I just want to better understand the differences in opinion between two sets of technicians.  T3 uses oscillators, so it’s not like they can ignore ominous signs of divergence.

    [ Edited: 08 September 2012 12:52 AM by Mav ]

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 08 September 2012 12:50 AM #1353

    iPad, I KNOW there were times of strange relative weakness…I just can’t remember when.

    Sell the news Wednesday is a key time to see how AAPL reacts, IMHO.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 08 September 2012 01:13 PM #1354

    Mav is just doing a test of user name length - 08 September 2012 12:49 AM

    T3 gets it wrong sometimes too of course - I wonder if Redler wants to walk back his FB call featured on Mad Money, even though how “wrong” he was depends on timeframe - but Redler and Sperling both don’t seem concerned.  I hardly “worship” them (I haven’t bought a single T3 product and I don’t even have plans to do a free trial), but they seem pretty on the ball, really.

    I just want to better understand the differences in opinion between two sets of technicians.  T3 uses oscillators, so it’s not like they can ignore ominous signs of divergence.

    One of the (many) things I admire about Scott…he has NO problem admitting when he’s wrong.  He’s on the wrong side of a trade fairly regularly.  The key distinguishing quality of a good trader: knowing what to do when you’re wrong…knowing how to adjust…being nimble!

    Back when we were coming back up from 530…and we were trying to break out over that 585 congestion…Scott was a bit early and got smacked…I think that made him gun-shy for a bit.  So it happens.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 07:26 PM #1355

    AAPL Daily Chart (with my notes)

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 07:32 PM #1356

    Events are REALLY gonna mess with technicals this week.

    Though you could also call them “good cover” for whatever ends up happening with AAPL.

    Well, you were right, iPad.  And for now, I’m playing defense as far as trades.  On the “bright side”, cash balances are only vulnerable to stuff like currency devaluation.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 07:33 PM #1357

    Just looking at the charts and ignoring the Sept 12th event and fundamentals, AAPL is ~ $1 below the bottom 20 day Bollinger band(period =20, deviation = 2).  On the 3 month and 6 month charts AAPL is just above the mid point of the Bollinger Bands.

    I am not sure how many more WTF sales there will be before FQ2 2013 earnings.  AAPL @ $620 between now and after Oct earnings report would surprise me but not shock me, $640s in this time frame seem very possible.

    I need to footnote this with the fact that I am very new at this and don’t recommend anyone use this for investing.

    Signature

    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 07:46 PM #1358

    rickag - 10 September 2012 07:33 PM

    Just looking at the charts and ignoring the Sept 12th event and fundamentals, AAPL is ~ $1 below the bottom 20 day Bollinger band(period =20, deviation = 2).  On the 3 month and 6 month charts AAPL is just above the mid point of the Bollinger Bands.

    I am not sure how many more WTF sales there will be before FQ2 2013 earnings.  AAPL @ $620 between now and after Oct earnings report would surprise me but not shock me, $640s in this time frame seem very possible.

    I need to footnote this with the fact that I am very new at this and don’t recommend anyone use this for investing.

    rickag, re: $1 below Bollinger bands…I don’t think you’re looking at a DAILY chart, as we aren’t below the daily lower BB (20,2).  Can you post a chart in the charts thread? 

    Note: if we WERE below the daily lower BB, I’d be hocking my jewelry to buy unhedged calls (I am NOT doing this right here!!!).

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 07:49 PM #1359

    Oh, I forgot, AAPL has traded above the channel they were in between May 18th and August 17th and today broke below the upper channel line.

    Not sure if any of this means squat, but I thought I’d try and contribute.

    Signature

    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 07:52 PM #1360

    Uh, we’re nowhere CLOSE to breaking the daily lower BB.  That’s somewhere south of 630 IIRC.  (EDIT:  Yep, right around 628.)

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 07:57 PM #1361

    Mav - 10 September 2012 07:32 PM

    Events are REALLY gonna mess with technicals this week.

    Though you could also call them “good cover” for whatever ends up happening with AAPL.

    Well, you were right, iPad.  And for now, I’m playing defense as far as trades.  On the “bright side”, cash balances are only vulnerable to stuff like currency devaluation.

    Mav, VERY smart to have cash on hand—good job!  I’m with you on the “good cover.”  I think we should get an oversold bounce soon—there will be dip-buyers, followed by rip-sellers.  When the dust settles, we’ll know if the bounce is retrace (before more down) or reversal.  Neither would surprise me.

     

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 08:02 PM #1362

    lovemyipad

    I’ll try. I’m using the 20 day chart @ Trademonster with a 20 period and deviation of 2.

    Image Attachments

    ScreenShot.jpg

    Click thumbnail to see full-size image

    Signature

    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 08:03 PM #1363

    Pfft.  It’s kind of a cap(itulation) trade on the Dec 12s.  All I knew, I didn’t like what I saw.  So I took some chips back and I’ll wait it out.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 08:03 PM #1364

    YAY!  Good job, rickag!  Okay, give me a few minutes to see if I can figure out what you’re seeing…

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 10 September 2012 08:06 PM #1365

    lovemyipad - 10 September 2012 08:03 PM

    YAY!  Good job, rickag!  Okay, give me a few minutes to see if I can figure out what you’re seeing…

    The time period is 2 hours.

    Signature

    Waiting to be included in one of Apple’s target markets, but I still own an iPod, iPhone and iMac and APPL stock.