AAPL Chart Talk

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    Posted: 30 March 2012 11:50 PM #16

    Mav - 31 March 2012 02:14 AM

    So iPad, the current short-term charts are saying, “who the heck knows”?  wink

    Yep, the charts only tell the story up to the present moment.  Kinda like Soap Opera Digest.  What happens next?  Tune in Monday at 9:30 ET.  Every episode ends with a cliff-hanger… wink

         
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    Posted: 31 March 2012 01:05 AM #17

    it appears that most of the dip buyers are sitting on their hands right now. Is there anything in the charts that can confirm or refute that assertion?

    FWIW, I’m waiting to see what happens with my somewhat strong assumption that there’s more drop ahead. JMO ~~~~~

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 31 March 2012 01:16 AM #18

    Tilde alert!

    Is your assumption strong enough to short AAPL short-term?  It isn’t for me, but of course that’s just me.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Posted: 01 April 2012 02:54 PM #19

    With the usual disclaimer that I avoid putting much credence in ANYONE’S short-term forecasts—I have to *see* it to believe it—I came across the following blog article that correlates with my assessment of past and present market conditions:

    “Blow-off-top” Rally Coming

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2012 03:06 PM #20

    Phoebear611 - 31 March 2012 01:46 AM

    Still learning the technicals so scaling could be costly for me until I get the hang of it.  I keep my trading small and my investing large.  I like the power of compounding so as the stock rises over time I roll up and out…my base gets larger and larger…that’s my philosophy and it’s worked well for me.  My short term timing needs a lot of work though (lol).

    Phoebes, technicals will absolutely help you with short-term timing.  Maybe consider “paper” scaling into positions based on technicals?

    AFB’s Wheeles had some advice that has worked very well for me recently: in strong trends, only pay attention to the oscillator readings (overbought/ oversold) that give you signals to enter in the direction of the prevailing trend.  So in this uptrend, watch for “oversold” readings as BUY signals—as they are soon followed by a bounce.  On the other hand, use extreme caution with “overbought” (sell) signals, as this signal can last a lot longer than usual—we can get more and more overbought, like a rubberband stretched and stretched.  The latter has tripped up technical traders all year.

    [ Edited: 01 April 2012 03:11 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 01 April 2012 03:41 PM #21

    AAPL ONE-HOUR CHART:

    See how well “oversold” readings in this timeframe (1-hour) have identified strong entry points?

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2012 04:43 PM #22

    Which of course is no guaranteed indicator given the state of world markets, but _is_ very interesting!

    [ Edited: 01 April 2012 05:33 PM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 01 April 2012 04:48 PM #23

    Yep, nothing is guaranteed.  But when scaling into positions, this is where I start…  Usually, to manage risk, I unload a portion of what I just bought on the next pop (oversold bounce), just in case the dip keeps dipping.  In which case, I repeat this process until it doesn’t work anymore.

    [ Edited: 01 April 2012 04:51 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 01 April 2012 05:34 PM #24

    Don’t get me wrong, just clarifying for new visitors to the thread.

    I’m looking to bring my quick trade cash back into the game very soon.  MACD-H looked especially interesting.  It’s a “Monday or Tuesday?” decision.  Sure things could get ugly but I like what I see so far.  This is no takedown/mean reversion of a “parabolic” stock.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2012 07:20 PM #25

    AAPL DAILY CHART (with my notes):

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2012 07:47 PM #26

    Here are my thoughts on the daily chart:

    First, MACD-histogram flipping negative (valley versus mountain) confirms a downwave in an uptrend.  Duration: unknown.  Maybe it ends tomorrow.  Maybe not.  Have to watch and see how things develop.

    So far, we found support/bounced around EMA-13, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level for the 105-point impulse from the 3/6 low (516) to the 3/28 high (621).

    23.6% is shallow but sufficient (healthy, non-parabolic) retracement for a potential next leg up—OR an oversold bounce before another leg down.  That’s the key question.

    Zooming in closer, Friday’s oscillator readings in shorter timeframes (see 1 hour) suggest an imminent oversold bounce.  However, zooming back out for bigger picture, with daily MACD-H in short-term bear territory, must ascertain whether any “bounce” is retrace (up before more down) or reversal (off to the races).

    More later… smile

    [ Edited: 01 April 2012 07:56 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 01 April 2012 08:00 PM #27

    lovemyipad - 01 April 2012 06:06 PM
    Phoebear611 - 31 March 2012 01:46 AM

    Still learning the technicals so scaling could be costly for me until I get the hang of it.  I keep my trading small and my investing large.  I like the power of compounding so as the stock rises over time I roll up and out…my base gets larger and larger…that’s my philosophy and it’s worked well for me.  My short term timing needs a lot of work though (lol).

    AFB’s Wheeles had some advice that has worked very well for me recently: in strong trends, only pay attention to the oscillator readings (overbought/ oversold) that give you signals to enter in the direction of the prevailing trend.

    Would that be on the daily chart, Ms. IPad?

         
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    Posted: 01 April 2012 08:03 PM #28

    RG: weekly is more “prevailing” in the pecking order.

         
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    Posted: 02 April 2012 06:01 PM #29

    Wow, this was inaccurate:

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/11450021/1/technical-training-series-inside-day-on-aapl.html

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 02 April 2012 06:03 PM #30

    My caveman call on today’s chart - a little frenetic at first, but it settled into measured, relentless bullishness…one of the best charts aside from an intraday upside reversal anyway?  (I dunno, whatcha think, iPad?)

    A strong reinforcement of AAPL’s UP trend.

    How’d I do?  Me go chip away at square wheel now.

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.