AAPL Chart Talk

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    Posted: 14 April 2012 05:54 PM #76

    Mav, we really are all saying the same thing, just using different words. :D

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 05:56 PM #77

    I also agree that AAPL _could_ move in a big way before earnings.  But not a really big way, IMHO.  In general agreement with iPad, 40-50 points either way sounds about right assuming we don’t break from recent market conditions (which haven’t been great).  Divvy funds are backing up the truck as we speak.

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  • Posted: 14 April 2012 06:00 PM #78

    iPad, Mav - my understanding of what you two are saying is that earnings will help deide whether it is up or down.  Aapl is at at fork.  Did I get it?

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:03 PM #79

    alice - 14 April 2012 09:00 PM

    iPad, Mav - my understanding of what you two are saying is that earnings will help deide whether it is up or down.  Aapl is at at fork.  Did I get it?

    Alice, two forks.  One on Monday, kicking off the pre-earnings game.  One after earnings, kicking off the post-earnings game.

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:04 PM #80

    iPad says we often say the same the same thing in different ways.  But in many cases, iPad is just thinking on a much higher level than I am, and I accept that. LOL

    _I_ am saying earnings will continue to set the course for AAPL.  That’s my fork in the road.  Just the one.

    iPad is putting more emphasis on market sentiment as expressed through technicals.  In some situations we could both be saying the same thing, but iPad is focusing more on trends than I am, even as I also respect that AAPL could trend significantly in either direction in the next 7 trading days (my bet is a max range of 570-630).

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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:06 PM #81

    lovemyipad - 14 April 2012 08:44 PM

    So here’s my rephrasing of Mace’s IF/THEN logic (with which I concur):

    1) IF we decisively break below 597.94, THEN we’re opening the door to further declines, possibly as far as 550.  Rationale: If bulls fail to defend a level they previously conquered, then bears have gained power and taken over the lead.

    2) IF we decisively break above 621, THEN we’re opening to the door to further increases.  Rationale: If bears fail to defend a level they recently conquered, then bulls have reclaimed their power and taken back the lead.

    One of these two levels is going to break…it’s a question of which *decisively* breaks first…get above and STAY above…which may take some back and forth…  Monday we find out which team won the coin toss and gets the ball first.  Are bulls on offense or defense?

    Make sense?

    iPad, I can’t for the life of me fathom scenario 1) occurring.  I’m probably blinded by my bullness this close to what the masses presume to be another stellar earnings beat.  I did fail to see the earnings miss in Oct’11 due to delayed iPhone sales.  The iPhone being the biggest driver of revenue for Apple.  There hasn’t been any news (that I recall) about supply constraints, lack luster demand etc. to hold back phone sales.  Only new countries and new carriers and new increased analyst estimates month after month.  Not to mention our new little friend iPad3.

    Scenario 2) seems more logical and probable this close to earnings unless there is new sentiment of apple missing this quarter.

    I just can’t seem to put my mind in “bear-mode” and justify another down week heading into earnings.  Maybe Q3 guidance will be remarkably low???

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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:07 PM #82

    In other words, Mav and I are saying the same thing. raspberry

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:09 PM #83

    LEAPfrog - 14 April 2012 09:06 PM

    I’m probably blinded by my bullness this close to what the masses presume to be another stellar earnings beat.  I did fail to see the earnings miss in Oct’11 due to delayed iPhone sales.

    Break out of that frozen mindset in the first sentence I quoted.  Focus on that second one.

    Just because it’s not likely doesn’t mean it can’t happen.  Being blinded by sentiment is one way to be zeroed out of investing/trading for a long time, or more.

    I’m a bull, but I’m also prepared to lose it all and I continually reevaluate what how I’m trading and how I’m forecasting Apple.  I never assume I’m right.

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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:11 PM #84

    lovemyipad - 14 April 2012 09:07 PM

    In other words, Mav and I are saying the same thing. raspberry

    We, are, NOT!  :D

    iPad’s thinking in two tiers.  Technicals affecting earnings and then earnings.

    I’m just focused on the earnings signpost.  It will be an overriding market influence because Apple is a full-fledged bellwether now, being probably one of the top 20 companies by revenue.

    [ Edited: 14 April 2012 06:18 PM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 14 April 2012 06:13 PM #85

    Is there a gap in the 570 - 580 range?

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:20 PM #86

    LEAPfrog - 14 April 2012 09:06 PM

    iPad, I can’t for the life of me fathom scenario 1) occurring.  I’m probably blinded by my bullness this close to what the masses presume to be another stellar earnings beat.  I did fail to see the earnings miss in Oct’11 due to delayed iPhone sales.  The iPhone being the biggest driver of revenue for Apple.  There hasn’t been any news (that I recall) about supply constraints, lack luster demand etc. to hold back phone sales.  Only new countries and new carriers and new increased analyst estimates month after month.  Not to mention our new little friend iPad3.

    Scenario 2) seems more logical and probable this close to earnings unless there is new sentiment of apple missing this quarter.

    I just can’t seem to put my mind in “bear-mode” and justify another down week heading into earnings.

    LEAPfrog, I hear you, and I agree.  That said, the market does stuff I never saw coming all the time…sometimes in my favor, sometimes not.

    I was surprised on Thursday to see the market up and AAPL down.  On Friday, I was surprised that we didn’t take back 610.  I’m not thrilled about that.

    APR’11, we tanked until two days before earnings, then rallied up to a level near but not exceeding the ATH.

    JAN’12, we slumped the week before earnings (OE week), then popped big after earnings.

    Frankly, I’m expecting fabulous, blow-the-doors-off, put-that-in-your-pipe-and-smoke-it kind of numbers.  What the market does with that info?  Whole different question.

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:23 PM #87

    alice - 14 April 2012 09:13 PM

    Is there a gap in the 570 - 580 range?

    568. :(

         
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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:24 PM #88

    If Apple numbers are excellent, I think the market will reprice somewhere between a 16.3-17 multiple to start things off.  Even a 16 multiplier would be fine.  This market cannot rationally price even an ultracap growing net income over 80% at a multiple implying 15-25% growth (15 or under).

    If anything, it’s far more impressive than the growth of lesser companies percent for percent.

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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:24 PM #89

    Mav - 14 April 2012 09:09 PM
    LEAPfrog - 14 April 2012 09:06 PM

    I’m probably blinded by my bullness this close to what the masses presume to be another stellar earnings beat.  I did fail to see the earnings miss in Oct’11 due to delayed iPhone sales.

    Break out of that frozen mindset in the first sentence I quoted.  Focus on that second one.

    Just because it’s not likely doesn’t mean it can’t happen.  Being blinded by sentiment is one way to be zeroed out of investing/trading for a long time, or more.

    I’m a bull, but I’m also prepared to lose it all and I continually reevaluate what how I’m trading and how I’m forecasting Apple.  I never assume I’m right.

    I’m all for considering possibilities, but probablities are where my convictions lie.  And I need conviction in order to play my money in this market.

    I don’t consider myself closed minded…..  maybe I should have asked if there was anything we could have overlooked this quarter to justify another leg down prior to earnings???

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    Posted: 14 April 2012 06:26 PM #90

    Difference.

    Conviction is required for the market.

    Being blinded by anything sets you up for potential disaster.

    If you don’t consider yourself closed-minded, be careful to express your sentiment to reflect that so we don’t pick up on signals like “blinded”. 

    What would justify another leg down?  Market in a corrective phase, of course.  Two losing market weeks in a row.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.