How Many iPhones Did Apple Sell In The March Quarter?

  • Posted: 20 April 2012 06:51 PM #106

    DawnTreader - 20 April 2012 09:10 PM

    Again, iPhone unit sales growth in the March quarter will come from Asia-Pacifc, new carriers added in the quarter and from regions added for iPhone 4S distribution late in the December quarter and throughout the March quarter.

    And if any significant amount of the customers in those markets held off purchasing in the Dec quarter awaiting the 4S release in the March quarter, as did the US market in the Oct quarter, this could provide a boost to the March quarter iPhone sales numbers.

         
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    Posted: 20 April 2012 06:58 PM #107

    Hold these thoughts.  This could be a fun weekend of mini-research and analysis.

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  • Posted: 20 April 2012 06:59 PM #108

    Burgess - 20 April 2012 09:37 PM

    Sorry, didn’t mean to imply stuffing to juice the numbers or anything.

    I didn’t read it that way.  grin

    The point is, as distribution expands, channel supply is not a big concern. Most likely the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S will both continue in production next model year and the expanding global market can make use of any and all product.

         
  • Posted: 20 April 2012 09:03 PM #109

    And a video for a little of that analytical weekend fun mentioned by Mav:

    Smuggling 200 iPhones Across The Hong Kong - Shenzhen Border Inside Beer Bottles

    http://www.cultofmac.com/162117/smuggling-200-iphones-across-the-border-inside-beer-bottles-video/

    The video was entertaining just to see how to get iPhones inside beer bottles but not translated in English was the market price for carrying the beer bottles across the border.

    The woman at the end says she gets 200 Yuan (US$31.7) to carry across the border from Hong Kong.

         
  • Posted: 20 April 2012 10:05 PM #110

    I think all this conjecture is fun but I think everyone needs to realize one simple fact and the WS analysts and talking heads on CNBC may not get it yet. Apple has essentially addressed all the subscribers in the U.S. with the iPhone 4S. Sure, there are regional carriers to add and T-Mobile doesn’t have the iPhone yet but surely Apple has addressed 90%+ of the U.S. smartphone market already. This means that the vast majority of iPhone growth is coming from overseas. Yes, there is growth domestically as dumb phone owners switch to smart phones and yes iPhone can take share from Fandroid phones domestically. But those benefits are also occurring internationally while Apple is also adding tons of international carriers at the same time. Going forward we are going to see international growth absolutely dwarf domestic unit growth for iPhone because there aren’t any big carriers left here to add, or at least not nearly as many as there are internationally. We are going to see the U.S. share of the iPhone market shrink every single quarter from here on out and I expect the drop to fairly steep.

    I think everyone here pretty much knows that Apple has never come close to meeting worldwide iPhone demand so all they have to do is keep adding production and carriers until they get there. I think that will happen in a couple years. If Apple has production setup for 40 million units (for example) but they see sales lagging their projections in any given market all they have to do is add some carriers elsewhere to sop up the “excess” production. I know this is simplifying things a bit and Apple has to do a lot of work to make these carrier agreements happen but it really is this easy when looking at the question from 50,000 feet.

    As DT has said for years, Apple will sell all the iPhones it can make. Now the question is whether you think Apple planned to make less iPhones this quarter than last. I don’t think they did.

         
  • Posted: 20 April 2012 10:08 PM #111

    Oh, and to answer the question of this thread….how many iPhones did Apple sell last Q? 37.0M? I think they sold 37.000001M iPhones in the March quarter.

         
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    Posted: 21 April 2012 12:01 AM #112

    How many brilliant Romanian Apple analysts are there, anyway? I’ve just finished poring over the link by Trainspotter to the article on SA by Nicu Mihalache. I don’t dare go that high in EPS, but he makes a convincing case by showing the reasoning behind each number, and in breaking down the numbers in some detail.

         
  • Posted: 21 April 2012 12:09 AM #113

    adamthompson32 - 21 April 2012 01:05 AM

    I think all this conjecture is fun but I think everyone needs to realize one simple fact and the WS analysts and talking heads on CNBC may not get it yet. Apple has essentially addressed all the subscribers in the U.S. with the iPhone 4S. Sure, there are regional carriers to add and T-Mobile doesn’t have the iPhone yet but surely Apple has addressed 90%+ of the U.S. smartphone market already. This means that the vast majority of iPhone growth is coming from overseas. Yes, there is growth domestically as dumb phone owners switch to smart phones and yes iPhone can take share from Fandroid phones domestically. But those benefits are also occurring internationally while Apple is also adding tons of international carriers at the same time. Going forward we are going to see international growth absolutely dwarf domestic unit growth for iPhone because there aren’t any big carriers left here to add, or at least not nearly as many as there are internationally. We are going to see the U.S. share of the iPhone market shrink every single quarter from here on out and I expect the drop to fairly steep.

    I think everyone here pretty much knows that Apple has never come close to meeting worldwide iPhone demand so all they have to do is keep adding production and carriers until they get there. I think that will happen in a couple years. If Apple has production setup for 40 million units (for example) but they see sales lagging their projections in any given market all they have to do is add some carriers elsewhere to sop up the “excess” production. I know this is simplifying things a bit and Apple has to do a lot of work to make these carrier agreements happen but it really is this easy when looking at the question from 50,000 feet.

    As DT has said for years, Apple will sell all the iPhones it can make. Now the question is whether you think Apple planned to make less iPhones this quarter than last. I don’t think they did.

    +1000!  You’ve said it, Horace said it, DT said it…,Hell, even I’ve said it.  The only real question is how many can they make.

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    Posted: 21 April 2012 12:12 AM #114

    Prazan, I think you missed a Horace Dediu. :innocent:

    Let’s make this the new Weekend Updates of the weekend.  There’s some data we should get mining to polish things up for Tuesday!

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    Posted: 21 April 2012 12:16 AM #115

    If you (speaking to no one in particular) believe Apple will sell every iPhone it can make this quarter, then I better not see you estimating below 36 million. :innocent:

    Sequential increase, amazing it sounds, would not be off limits for these analysts.

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    Posted: 21 April 2012 12:18 AM #116

    Prazan - 21 April 2012 03:01 AM

    How many brilliant Romanian Apple analysts are there, anyway? I’ve just finished poring over the link by Trainspotter to the article on SA by Nicu Mihalache. I don’t dare go that high in EPS, but he makes a convincing case by showing the reasoning behind each number, and in breaking down the numbers in some detail.

    I am Romanian:). Proud of my fellow countrymen!!!!!

    38 million is my number.

         
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    Posted: 21 April 2012 12:25 AM #117

    You guy/gals are making me feel a bit better about the iPhone #. I’m really pulling for 35+ even though I’m a bit skeptical. Keep up the good thoughts/messages and pass the beer!

    FWIW, I nibbled at LOD both yesterday and today.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

         
  • Posted: 21 April 2012 12:52 AM #118

    Keep in mind that iPhone is available on 300 or so carriers today. RIMM’s crapberry is available on 600+ carriers. When iPhone is available on 600+ carriers in 3 years or so unit sales will be 2-3x today’s levels. That is when Apple will be fully and fairly valued at god knows what kind of “insane” share price. It’s amazing how analysts don’t talk about the fact that iPhone is available on half as many carriers as crapberry. Sure, the next 300 carriers for iPhone aren’t worth nearly as much as the current 300 but let’s say it adds 20% to sales, that adds more to Apple’s iPhone unit sales than many of these jackasses are modeling and that’s without considering that iPhone is winning share and smartphones are winning share from dumbphones like crazy. iPhone can fairly easily double again in the next 18 months and then maybe double one more in another 24-30 months. We are looking at insane growth from here. I made a big mistake (or was it) and sold some shares to the point that right now I’m only 40% in AAPL, 10% UPL (big mistake), and 50% cash. I’m itching to do something “crazy”. Dare I pump some very serious coin into AAPL shares or options prior to Tuesday?!?!?!?!?! F***. I wish I knew what to do.

         
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    Posted: 21 April 2012 03:08 AM #119

    [moved to next page]

    [ Edited: 21 April 2012 04:04 AM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 21 April 2012 03:40 AM #120

    Now, these are just statistics (obviously the China Telecom data is more generally useful), but I think it’s more than a little important to point out that not counting China “officially”, iPhone 4S starting in late December launched in countries (again, excluding China) with a combined population of over 1.4B people.

    Obviously, some markets are bigger than others, much bigger, given stuff like real economic differences and carrier availability/coverage.  Population is not remotely equal to addressable market population.  But there’s big markets there - Brazil, Russia, Indonesia for example.  (Yep, still leaving out China, don’t wanna get _too_ enthusiastic.  LOL)

    And THEN add China Unicom/Telecom/the non-sanctioned China Mobile users into the mix wink, and you ask yourself - “wait, most sales from these countries would be booked in fiscal Q2?”

    Not here to change anyone’s mind, but hey - food for thought!

    [ Edited: 21 April 2012 03:44 AM by Mav ]

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