How Many iPhones Did Apple Sell In The March Quarter?

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    Posted: 22 April 2012 01:25 AM #151

    So, any other threads we can connect, or “conclusions” we might be able to draw?

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  • Posted: 22 April 2012 01:33 AM #152

    What’s the let’s-count-populations excercise all about?

         
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    Posted: 22 April 2012 01:41 AM #153

    Attempting to see beyond “b-b-but Verizon iPhone activations went down from 4.3 to 3.2M in CQ2…so iPhone numbers must be down 15% or more sequentially worldwide!” 

    Looking for context aside from fixating on one carrier in one market, is all.  And it’s more than populations, it’s about dates.

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  • Posted: 22 April 2012 01:47 AM #154

    Mav - 22 April 2012 04:41 AM

    Attempting to see beyond “b-b-but Verizon iPhone activations went down from 4.3 to 3.2M in CQ2…so iPhone numbers must be down 15% or more sequentially worldwide!” 

    Looking for context aside from fixating on one carrier in one market, is all.  And it’s more than populations, it’s about dates.

    Are we wrong in using 4.0M (4.2 times 13/14 weeks) for FQ1 vs. 3.2M in FQ2?  Splitting hairs perhaps, but the market is splitting logs over VZ sequential sales.

         
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    Posted: 22 April 2012 01:48 AM #155

    You have a very good point since VZ and AT&T report by calendar quarter.  On the other hand, 4.0M is still a 20% drop.  Too spooky for those unwilling to do a few hours of surface-level searching as we’ve done.

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  • Posted: 22 April 2012 02:13 AM #156

    Mav - 22 April 2012 04:41 AM

    Attempting to see beyond “b-b-but Verizon iPhone activations went down from 4.3 to 3.2M in CQ2…so iPhone numbers must be down 15% or more sequentially worldwide!” 

    Looking for context aside from fixating on one carrier in one market, is all.  And it’s more than populations, it’s about dates.

    I see. International sales will be more important every quarter from now on. Almost makes me salivate thinking about long-term potential for Apple products, iPhone in particular. Do we have any data at all about some of the bigger emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia?

         
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    Posted: 22 April 2012 02:15 AM #157

    You can help us out! :D

    Here’s how I see the math problem to try and solve.  A subset of hundreds of millions of people were left out, or mostly left out, of fiscal Q1 sales.  They’re now “in play.”  How will they add to and/or compensate for a drop-off in sales from the other countries that’ve had the iPhone 4S since October/November?

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  • Posted: 22 April 2012 02:16 AM #158

    Mav - 22 April 2012 04:48 AM

    You have a very good point since VZ and AT&T report by calendar quarter.  On the other hand, 4.0M is still a 20% drop.  Too spooky for those unwilling to do a few hours of surface-level searching as we’ve done.

    Yes, but ATT had a sequential 12% Q1 -> Q2 decline in activations a year ago yet Apple’s sold 15% more iPhones during the same period.  This whole VZ-tea-leaf-reading is jacked up.  I’m done with it.

         
  • Posted: 22 April 2012 02:16 AM #159

    Mav - 22 April 2012 04:48 AM

    You have a very good point since VZ and AT&T report by calendar quarter.  On the other hand, 4.0M is still a 20% drop.  Too spooky for those unwilling to do a few hours of surface-level searching as we’ve done.

    Please consider Verizon doesn’t have the 3GS and no longer has the benefit of Sprint customers migrating for the iPhone. The activation stat is useless on its own.

         
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    Posted: 22 April 2012 02:16 AM #160

    Mercel, you did see my chart, didn’t you?  :innocent:

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    Posted: 22 April 2012 02:17 AM #161

    DawnTreader - 22 April 2012 05:16 AM
    Mav - 22 April 2012 04:48 AM

    You have a very good point since VZ and AT&T report by calendar quarter.  On the other hand, 4.0M is still a 20% drop.  Too spooky for those unwilling to do a few hours of surface-level searching as we’ve done.

    Please consider Verizon doesn’t have the 3GS and no longer has the benefit of Sprint customers migrating for the iPhone. The activation stat is useless on its own.

    Guys, I’m explaining the idiocy of the pundits, not endorsing them.  That Excel chart I did!  Remember?!  LOL

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  • Posted: 22 April 2012 02:22 AM #162

    YangFeng - 22 April 2012 05:13 AM
    Mav - 22 April 2012 04:41 AM

    Attempting to see beyond “b-b-but Verizon iPhone activations went down from 4.3 to 3.2M in CQ2…so iPhone numbers must be down 15% or more sequentially worldwide!” 

    Looking for context aside from fixating on one carrier in one market, is all.  And it’s more than populations, it’s about dates.

    I see. International sales will be more important every quarter from now on. Almost makes me salivate thinking about long-term potential for Apple products, iPhone in particular. Do we have any data at all about some of the bigger emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia?

    I made an attempt but it’s tough.  We can take some comfort with knowing that between Japan and China, any decline in domestic iPhone sales will be covered.

    Finally, don’t forget that VZ was likely poaching fewer Sprint customers this time around (Sprint started selling iPhones in Oct. 2011)

    [ Edited: 22 April 2012 02:35 AM by ByeTMO ]      
  • Posted: 22 April 2012 02:30 AM #163

    YangFeng - 22 April 2012 05:13 AM
    Mav - 22 April 2012 04:41 AM

    Attempting to see beyond “b-b-but Verizon iPhone activations went down from 4.3 to 3.2M in CQ2…so iPhone numbers must be down 15% or more sequentially worldwide!” 

    Looking for context aside from fixating on one carrier in one market, is all.  And it’s more than populations, it’s about dates.

    I see. International sales will be more important every quarter from now on. Almost makes me salivate thinking about long-term potential for Apple products, iPhone in particular. Do we have any data at all about some of the bigger emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia?

    Each of the nations you listed have challenges but are long-term growth opportunities. Brazil and India will take time.

         
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    Posted: 22 April 2012 03:15 AM #164

    Mav - 20 April 2012 08:44 AM
    Tetrachloride - 20 April 2012 03:32 AM

    population of each country in millions, rounded down.

    1
    203
    16
    82
    7

    6
    2

    28
    31
    29
    101
    .8
    138
    26
    49
    23
    66
    10
    78
    8

    90
    —————end of Dec 16th group

    sry for the blank lines.  must be some invisible characters in there which I could not delete, so added an extra blank line in 3 places

    That’s an addressable population of 994.8M.  Extremely helpful, Cl4, presuming your math to be correct LOL.  Many thanks.

    I think we just found 5-10 million more iPhones under the couch.  Rather easily, really.

    tyty

    Quote from Big Al

    Jan. 12th: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Botswana, British Virgin Islands, Cameroon, Cayman Islands, Central African Republic, China, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Grenada, Guam, Guinea Conakry, Ivory Coast, Jamaica, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Niger, Senegal, St. Vincent and The Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos and Uganda.

    Jan. 27th: Indonesia, Costa Rica

    ————- 

    China and Indonesia are the main ones. 

    Combining these numbers with this very significant re-quote from Tim Cook, courtesy of Mark

    http://braeburngroup.com/index.php/forums/viewthread/150/

    [ don?t want to comment on current sales trends other than?because we have included, obviously, that in our guidance. But I would?given that we just launched in China, I would say the demand there has been staggering. We are selling through our reseller stores and our online store. We?re not currently selling through a retail store. And the demand is off the charts. And so we?re very happy with the demand response there. The other countries that we launched in earlier this quarter were smaller countries in a demand sense. And so we?ll see how the quarter goes from a supply-demand point of view. We did make progress as we moved from the end of the quarter until now, as I alluded to earlier, and got caught up in some countries, but there is still some that we are not caught up. So we?ll see how we?ll do going forward.

    /quote]

         
  • Posted: 22 April 2012 03:25 AM #165

    Mav - 22 April 2012 05:15 AM

    You can help us out! :D

    Here’s how I see the math problem to try and solve.  A subset of hundreds of millions of people were left out, or mostly left out, of fiscal Q1 sales.  They’re now “in play.”  How will they add to and/or compensate for a drop-off in sales from the other countries that’ve had the iPhone 4S since October/November?

    I think we could actually overestimate sales to those countries. It’s more a story of 2015 and beyond. Let’s take India as an example: The phone market is the second biggest in the world, the subscriber base of Apple’s two carriers in the country are 181m for Bharti Airtel and 63m for Aircel. Yet, iPhone sales last Q2 were estimated to be around a meager 60-70’000 units (not counting grey market) so even if we assume an impressive 200% growth we will only see around 200’000 units being sold in India. That’s less than what we see in small-sized European countries such as Switzerland, Belgium, etc. and about what’s been pre-ordered at China Telecom in early March.

    Brazilian iPhones are probably a lot higher but as long as an entry-level iPhone 4S costs 1400$ we won’t see sales explode there either. Russian sales are higher too but nothing spectacular yet.

    I think we will see extremely high growth in those countries going forward, albeit from a very low base.