How Many iPhones Did Apple Sell In The March Quarter?

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    Posted: 22 April 2012 04:14 AM #166

    It’s not gonna be 50M iPhones in a quarter, but I don’t think all of those countries (including China, of course) amount to only 5M in sales either, if you catch my drift.  Obviously some of the launch countries will have poor coverage, very financially challenged demographics, or both.  Hopefully over time we can put more and more data points together.

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  • Posted: 22 April 2012 04:48 AM #167

    Mav - 22 April 2012 07:14 AM

    It’s not gonna be 50M iPhones in a quarter, but I don’t think all of those countries (including China, of course) amount to only 5M in sales either, if you catch my drift.  Obviously some of the launch countries will have poor coverage, very financially challenged demographics, or both.  Hopefully over time we can put more and more data points together.

    You will see 50 million units in a quarter in less than one year.

         
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    Posted: 22 April 2012 06:35 AM #168

    Robert, sometimes…

    I mean from those later-stage countries.

    Volumes of 50M iPhones per quarter worldwide?  By fiscal Q1 2013 for sure.

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  • Posted: 22 April 2012 10:19 AM #169

    Mav - 22 April 2012 05:16 AM

    Mercel, you did see my chart, didn’t you?  :innocent:

    Yes—I thought you had forgotten it!  :wink:

         
  • Posted: 22 April 2012 10:43 AM #170

    Mav - 22 April 2012 02:32 AM

    Well let’s ask directly:  Turley, does any of our discussion so far make a difference in your thinking?

    Verizon was an Android stronghold.  Now?

    The iPhone is crushing the competition worldwide (even *cough* Japan!  Who knew, Wired magazine?).  33.8M is not a frighteningly low number by any means.  Whose set of assumptions and analytics were more accurate?  That’s all.

    Turley is one of the best Indie analyst out there and was good about sharing his thoughts near the top of this thread.  I’m not sure there are more hard data points out there, unless he has a contact inside Foxconn that he’s mum about.  LOL 

    In the last earnings call Tim Cook said he bet big on iPhone production and that proved not to be high enough.  It’s certainly possible Tim dialed back production given the pent-up demand for a late-arriving iPhone 4s in FQ1.  However, I don’t think he did given world demand and new markets to satiate. 

    You’re right:  33.8 is not going to be a problem if he’s right.  I’m at 38M.

         
  • Posted: 22 April 2012 11:16 AM #171

    After reading the last couple of pages of this thread, I took my regular early Sunday morning look at Asymco.com, where Horace has posted an article on the evaporating value of Nokia.

    Here is a graph from that post. May not be directly related to this discussion, but it is related, particularly the China y-o-y.

         
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    Posted: 22 April 2012 02:54 PM #172

    Mav - 22 April 2012 04:25 AM

    So, any other threads we can connect, or “conclusions” we might be able to draw?

    Looking at the points of distribution in China is important due to the fact that Apple’s retail stores, after the “egg” incident, weren’t able to sell the 4S.

    So we basically have four points of distribution in China.

    1- Apple’s website
    2- China Unicom stores (I can’t find an accurate number of retail stores)
    3- China Telecom stores as of the beginning of March (2800 retail stores approx)
    4- Apple resellers which I believe is ever expanding and commonly overlooked.  230 if Apple has an updated page.  http://www.apple.com.cn/reseller/apr/list.php

    And when Apple stopped the sale of the iPhone 4S in it own retail store in the FQ2, this is what happened.

    http://www.china.org.cn/business/2012-01/19/content_24444660.htm

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    Posted: 22 April 2012 06:53 PM #173

    PED helpfully reminds us what the iPhone situation was - in China - in January (fiscal Q2):

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/04/22/about-those-3-2-million-verizon-iphone-activations-last-quarter/

    Not only does this picture say a thousand words, that picture might be of more than a thousand people.  I don’t really feel like counting. :D

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    Posted: 22 April 2012 10:00 PM #174

    Mav - 22 April 2012 09:53 PM

    PED helpfully reminds us what the iPhone situation was - in China - in January (fiscal Q2):

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/04/22/about-those-3-2-million-verizon-iphone-activations-last-quarter/

    Not only does this picture say a thousand words, that picture might be of more than a thousand people.  I don’t really feel like counting. :D

    How confident are we in this quote from the article?

    “63% of iPhones were activated outside the U.S. last quarter”

    If we’re confident in this percentage, we should be able to deduce some numbers with a greater degree of certainty.

         
  • Posted: 22 April 2012 10:05 PM #175

    Prazan - 23 April 2012 01:00 AM
    Mav - 22 April 2012 09:53 PM

    PED helpfully reminds us what the iPhone situation was - in China - in January (fiscal Q2):

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/04/22/about-those-3-2-million-verizon-iphone-activations-last-quarter/

    Not only does this picture say a thousand words, that picture might be of more than a thousand people.  I don’t really feel like counting. :D

    How confident are we in this quote from the article?

    “63% of iPhones were activated outside the U.S. last quarter”

    If we’re confident in this percentage, we should be able to deduce some numbers with a greater degree of certainty.

    How confident? Apple reports these numbers. U.S. iPhone units as a % of total iPhones is goin to plummet going forward as we see more and more carriers added every quarter going forward. The U.S. smartphone market is also more mature than international markets.

         
  • Posted: 22 April 2012 10:26 PM #176

    I jus re-read last Q’s Q&A and I think PO told us iPhones will be up sequentially. He said “we would expect iPhone units to be down sequentially”. Well, that to me sound like they would naturally expect it but they don’t actually. TC’s commentary in the Q&A is also extremely telling and bullish.

         
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    Posted: 22 April 2012 10:30 PM #177

    I’ve seen in Apple’s reports that international sales represent 58% of the total, compared to 42% for the U.S., but I haven’t seen that 63% of iPhone unit sales are non-U.S. Can you point me to the specific document? I’m not suggesting they don’t exist. Just that I haven’t found them. Imagine Inspector Clouseau and you’ll get the idea. The numbers can probably be deduced from adding sales from U.S. carriers, though.

    If we accept that 63% of unit sales of the iPhone were international, then in Q2 2012 23,338 units were international sales and 13,706 U.S. sales. If we then assume that unit sales in the U.S. declined 20% (a worst case scenario), and that unit sales outside the U.S. grew 5%, then:

    23,338 * 1.05 = 24,505
    13,706 * .80 = 10,965

    For a total of 35,470 iPhones.

    I chose 5% international growth because the additional carriers and roll outs in China and expanded Siri language capabilities at the beginning of March make a lower growth rate improbable. A total of 35.5 million iPhones is similar to the sales modeled by Gregg Thurman, Navin Nagrani, Patrick Smellie, and Michael Cranston, among others.  The range of EPS estimates from these forecasters ranges from 11.72 to 13.11.

    If we assume international growth was flat, then this still results in 34.3 million phones, which drops EPS only about 30 cents, from 12.32 to 12.02 in my model.

         
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    Posted: 22 April 2012 10:37 PM #178

    adamthompson32 - 23 April 2012 01:26 AM

    I jus re-read last Q’s Q&A and I think PO told us iPhones will be up sequentially. He said “we would expect iPhone units to be down sequentially”. Well, that to me sound like they would naturally expect it but they don’t actually. TC’s commentary in the Q&A is also extremely telling and bullish.

    Make up your mind, man! LOL

    I kid, I kid, a little bit wink  There’s a myriad of analysts, WS and independents, there’s potential clues, parts of clues, maybe-actual clues provided in the fiscal Q1 CC remarks.  It really is a lot to take in.

    The big two hints in my book, as many of you know, are TC’s “we didn’t bet high enough” (CC) and “it was a decent quarter” shocker at the GS conference.  These are, in my mind, put-up-or-shut-up-class comments.

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  • Posted: 22 April 2012 10:39 PM #179

    TC said there was still a backlog for iPhone on the last call. Does anyone with a brain think apple cut production between the end of the holiday Q and the call? Of course not. If anything, production went up. So we know we have a January that likely exceeded December.

         
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    Posted: 22 April 2012 10:46 PM #180

    Prazan - 23 April 2012 01:30 AM

    I’ve seen in Apple’s reports that international sales represent 58% of the total, compared to 42% for the U.S., but I haven’t seen that 63% of iPhone unit sales are non-U.S. Can you point me to the specific document? I’m not suggesting they don’t exist. Just that I haven’t found them. Imagine Inspector Clouseau and you’ll get the idea. The numbers can probably be deduced from adding sales from U.S. carriers.

    There isn’t one.  Competitive advantage and all that.

    We do know the sum of all US _activations_ but no one knows for sure how that translates to “sales”.  There’s also the carriers seeming to use calendar quarters where Apple had its first 14-week quarter in a while.

    Anyway…in the Oct-Dec quarter AT&T activated 7.6M iPhones; Verizon around 4.3M; Sprint about 1.8M.  That’s 13.7M total reported US carrier activations.  Throw in the 37.04M iPhones sold in the Decemeber quarter, and that’s probably where that 63% int’l share is extrapolated from.

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