How Many iPhones Did Apple Sell In The March Quarter?

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    Posted: 22 April 2012 10:49 PM #181

    adamthompson32 - 23 April 2012 01:39 AM

    TC said there was still a backlog for iPhone on the last call. Does anyone with a brain think apple cut production between the end of the holiday Q and the call? Of course not. If anything, production went up. So we know we have a January that likely exceeded December.

    Yup!  I can’t help but think that way.  Apple launches the iPhone and then hits the brakes the first full quarter?  Not.  Gonna.  Happen.  Unless some signs of alarm are around the corner.  Which I doubt.

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    Posted: 22 April 2012 10:54 PM #182

    Thanks, Mav. I think Horace Dediu arrives at the numbers using the same methodology. It’s never going to be 100% accurate, but it should be close enough to give some confidence.

         
  • Posted: 22 April 2012 11:59 PM #183

    Mav - 21 April 2012 08:12 PM

    Some random thoughts:

    I’ll admit I’d probably be more worried than many of you, because my pet theory is that Apple grows the company in a “premeditated” fashion.  I mean sure there’s uncertainties and Apple adjusts the levers of production as it goes, but I’ve long believed Apple pretty clearly knows where it wants to be even before it gets there.  Yes, a lot of it is due to Apple’s “betting big” - Apple-speak for “a sustainable, fairly conservative (to us) production rate with room to grow” - and then, what a shock, they “didn’t bet high enough” (Tim Cook, fiscal Q1 2012 CC).  In a way it’s also a form of self-presentation/self-assertion - the warp-speed marathon runner, conditioned and trained enough to run said marathons back-to-back.  Few companies can pull off such high-level planning, but is it ever nice when you serve up some of the most popular products in the history of the world, to say nothing of the myriad other reasons why people love Apple stuff so much.

    Mav, you’re a poet and you don’t even know it.  I love this metaphor.  Now I know why Tim was wearing his Nike Live Strong jumper on his visit to the Apple store in China—that and his Nike directorship.

    [ Edited: 23 April 2012 12:51 AM by Trainspotter ]      
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    Posted: 23 April 2012 12:29 AM #184

    Totally unintentional.  I separate TC the CEO from TC the runner/exercise junkie.

    [ Edited: 23 April 2012 12:41 AM by Mav ]

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    Posted: 23 April 2012 01:07 AM #185

    adamthompson32 - 23 April 2012 01:26 AM

    I jus re-read last Q’s Q&A and I think PO told us iPhones will be up sequentially. He said “we would expect iPhone units to be down sequentially”. Well, that to me sound like they would naturally expect it but they don’t actually. TC’s commentary in the Q&A is also extremely telling and bullish.

    I agree and think that I gleaned even more bullishness from hearing the tone of his voice… I have it set up so the Earnings Call podcasts are automatically sent to my iTunes account, waiting there to lift my optimism on those dark OE Fridays.  I can FF/REW much easier in iTunes than with streaming and, I think, the podcasts will stay in my iTunes Library even if Apple decides to remove them from their site…

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    Posted: 23 April 2012 02:12 AM #186

    My favorite Brazil data point from below: The factories there by 2017 will be capable of producing 400 million iDevices annually.

    Jan. 24 PC Mag: Apple chief executive Tim Cook said that Apple did not launch, and did not sell a single iPhone 4S into mainland China ? the world’s largest market ? until January, after the quarter ended. That could mean that Apple will sell even more iPhone 4Ses in the current quarter?  Cook said that it was considering opening up the Chinese market, perhaps adding more carriers, and developing strategies for Brazil (a “huge opportunity,” Cook said) and India. ?

    “As it turns out, we didn’t bet high enough,” Cook said. “Our customers are in love with iPhone, and we’re very happy with that.” Cook said that Apple is “making progress” meeting that demand.

    Feb. 24, Apple begins selling Brazilian made iPhones in Brazil: But Pricing Remains High - Mac Rumors

    3/14 Morgan Stanley?s Katy Huberty: We believe lower iPhone prices in Brazil could be a near-term catalyst,” she wrote. “Hon Hai, Apple’s primary iPhone assembler, just opened its factory in Brazil. We believe this could lead to cheaper iPhones as Apple will not have to pay a hefty import tax in Brazil if final assembly of the device is done domestically.”
    Brazil has become the third largest PC market in the world and is an area that Apple has just started more aggressively selling to.

    April 5, Apple got approval to start selling Brazilian made iPad 2s in Brazil .(What Apple competitors currently produce in Brazil and thus can sell to end user for less?).

    Foxconn has been gearing up to assemble iPads in Brazil since January, when it was granted government tax reductions and exemptions related to production. The company plans to build five new factories in Brazil to help cater to demand for the iPhone and iPad, and the facilities are expected to provide an annual run rate of nearly 400 million units within five years.

    April 12, The city of Jundia? in Brazil has changed the name of one of its streets to “Avenida Steve Jobs,” offering a tribute to the late Apple co-founder not far from a Foxconn plant believed to be producing iPhones and iPads.


    April 2:  iBookstore to expand to Brazil within 30 days

    Read more: http://www.ipodnn.com/articles/12/04/02/apple.could.score.rare.victory.over.amazon/#ixzz1spuhtSKw

    April 20, Silicon India blog: Apple TV Begins Its Sales in Brazil Not long before Apple TV arrived in Brazil, Apple has officially announced to open iTunes in Brazil and Latin America, and it also opened iTunes Match service in Brazil.

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    Posted: 23 April 2012 02:29 AM #187

    Uh, source for the 400M unit production deal?

    I can see Apple eventually selling up to 300M iPhones and 200M iPads a year, maybe.  Maybe more than that.  But I can’t see 400M unit capacity being centered just in Brazil.  Maybe they meant worldwide?

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  • Posted: 23 April 2012 02:31 AM #188

    An anecdote from Beijing:

    Yesterday I talked to a secretary in a four-star hotel with 300 employees, located in the West of Beijing. She said all her co-workers owned iPhones. I said something along the lines of “that’s impossible, you’re exaggerating” but she claimed she didn’t know anyone with another phone except herself. I asked her how her co-workers with $300-$1000 per month salaries could even afford to buy an iPhone.

    “They save. They skip lunch. They skip dinner. Everyone wants an iPhone.”

         
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    Posted: 23 April 2012 02:31 AM #189

    Because it’s kind of my nature, I want to emphasize this is a no-gloating zone here.  Whoever is closest to the mark is closest to the mark this time around and whoever isn’t, isn’t.  And if we’re all wrong, so we are! :D

    There are bullish clues and bearish clues.  We’re all just trying to estimate as accurately as possible.

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    Posted: 23 April 2012 02:35 AM #190

    YangFeng - 23 April 2012 05:31 AM

    An anecdote from Beijing:

    Yesterday I talked to a secretary in a four-star hotel with 300 employees, located in the West of Beijing. She said all her co-workers owned iPhones. I said something along the lines of “that’s impossible, you’re exaggerating” but she claimed she didn’t know anyone with another phone except herself. I asked her how her co-workers with $300-$1000 per month salaries could even afford to buy an iPhone.

    “They save. They skip lunch. They skip dinner. Everyone wants an iPhone.”

    Thanks for the info!  So you just happened to be there at the time?

    If you consider what people consider luxury items from place to place, it does make a lot of sense.  After all, China Telecom is offering no-upfront-cost iPhone 4Ses with contract.

    And hey, if it’s your only phone/Internet/entertainment source - and quite possibly your only computer in the case of iPad - is it really still a “luxury item?”

    [ Edited: 23 April 2012 02:37 AM by Mav ]

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  • Posted: 23 April 2012 02:40 AM #191

    jjjz: A quick look at iPad 2 prices in Brazil tells me the cheapest model costs R$1399 or 750 US-Dollars. That’s still almost double the $399 in the US, so when is Apple going to be able to sell it at more attractive prices?

         
  • Posted: 23 April 2012 02:44 AM #192

    Mav: I wasn’t actually in said hotel but I’m currently living in Beijing.

    Edit: Actually, I happen to know an HR manager who just quit her job at that hotel, so I have a pretty good idea about how much money the employees there earn. It would be amazing if only a quarter of them had iPhones. smile

    [ Edited: 23 April 2012 02:48 AM by YangFeng ]      
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    Posted: 23 April 2012 04:18 AM #193

    YangFeng - 23 April 2012 05:40 AM

    jjjz: A quick look at iPad 2 prices in Brazil tells me the cheapest model costs R$1399 or 750 US-Dollars. That’s still almost double the $399 in the US, so when is Apple going to be able to sell it at more attractive prices?

    The ICMS taxes on products in brazil are bizarre, I wouldnt be surprised if all the difference was accountable to this. While apple elimanted the high import taxes on locally produced devices, it doesn’t avoid the local taxes.

    http://www.brazil-help.com/taxes.htm

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    Posted: 23 April 2012 04:24 AM #194

    Mav - 23 April 2012 05:35 AM
    YangFeng - 23 April 2012 05:31 AM

    An anecdote from Beijing:

    Yesterday I talked to a secretary in a four-star hotel with 300 employees, located in the West of Beijing. She said all her co-workers owned iPhones. I said something along the lines of “that’s impossible, you’re exaggerating” but she claimed she didn’t know anyone with another phone except herself. I asked her how her co-workers with $300-$1000 per month salaries could even afford to buy an iPhone.

    “They save. They skip lunch. They skip dinner. Everyone wants an iPhone.”

    Thanks for the info!  So you just happened to be there at the time?

    If you consider what people consider luxury items from place to place, it does make a lot of sense.  After all, China Telecom is offering no-upfront-cost iPhone 4Ses with contract.

    And hey, if it’s your only phone/Internet/entertainment source - and quite possibly your only computer in the case of iPad - is it really still a “luxury item?”

    It’s the beauty of the subsidized model, Apple may actually be offering Chinese carriers a discount rate on iPhones to enable them to give them away for free on relatively low priced contracts - yet no one knows outside of apple & carriers so there is no danger of pissing off other carriers and consumers who have payed a higher price for the same phone.

    [ Edited: 23 April 2012 04:28 AM by Burgess ]

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    Posted: 23 April 2012 04:28 AM #195

    International anti-trust SCANDAL!

    Naw, I think it’s ordinary pricing for the course, where the product is the undisputed best-selling smartphone model in the world. smile  And Apple may be able to give the slightest price break on iPhones where there isn’t as much in the way of shipping involved, if you know what I mean.

    So many think Apple is a triumph of marketing over substance.  That silly business aside, Apple is also a triumph of absolute contracting genius.  Long-term supply contracts, media contracts, contracts with carriers…

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