How Many iPhones Did Apple Sell In The March Quarter?

  • Posted: 24 April 2012 01:42 PM #226

    It seems iPhone YOY sales growth at ATT is just about 20%

    Q1’11 - 3.6m iPhones
    Q1’12 - 4.3m iPhones

    That’s just under 20% YOY growth.

    Rest-of-Smartphones (Android mostly?)  on the other hand is tanking, at least at ATT, no?  1.9m other-smartphones in Q1’11 vs 1.1m in Q1’12?

    Or did I miss something somewhere?

         
  • Posted: 24 April 2012 02:34 PM #227

    iphoned - 24 April 2012 04:42 PM

    It seems iPhone YOY sales growth at ATT is just about 20%

    Q1’11 - 3.6m iPhones
    Q1’12 - 4.3m iPhones

    That’s just under 20% YOY growth.

    Rest-of-Smartphones (Android mostly?)  on the other hand is tanking, at least at ATT, no?  1.9m other-smartphones in Q1’11 vs 1.1m in Q1’12?

    Or did I miss something somewhere?

    I think you have it about right. Non-iPhone losing share. iPhone gaining share. iPhone on 300 carriers worldwide. 600+ carriers within 2-3 years. Global smartphone market still growing like crazy. iPhone growing share intracarrier and adding carriers like crazy. iPhone dominating on every metric. Everyone else (except Samsung) getting slaughtered.

         
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    Posted: 24 April 2012 02:38 PM #228

    The megatrend is Android is LOSING.  That’s partly because Apple is at 100% price parity in GSM and will soon be at 100% price parity with CDMA.  Ah, remember the days when people pointed to the US market as an Android stronghold?  Not so much.

    It takes some time to build up from zero when everyone else outsold you from day one and just converted their millions and millions of smartphones to Android.  But the game is on, now.

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  • Posted: 24 April 2012 02:48 PM #229

    sfhc210 - 19 April 2012 04:11 PM

    So one of two things is likely to happen. Either Verizon’s total iPhone share drops nearly 40% to 8.42% or AT&T’s QOQ drop is much higher than Verizon’s - around 40% with only 4.25M iPhones sold. Let’s hope for a much lower Verizon percentage of total iPhones sold.

    Turns out AT&T’s drop was much bigger than Verizon’s…the number was almost spot on.

    Look at AT&T’s iPhone share for the past year.

    2011
    Q1 19.31%
    Q2 17.70%
    Q3 15.81%
    Q4 20.52%

    Of course, Q4 there was a lot of pent up demand for the 4S. But before that, their share was slipping about 10% per quarter. If we assume that AT&T continues this trend, a 10% slip compared to Q3 would put AT&T at about 14.23% share. That gives us a total of about 30M iPhones.

    Furthermore, this would agree with the Data on Verizon.

    2011
    Q1 11.80%
    Q2 11.31%
    Q3 11.71%
    Q4 11.61%

    It was hard to assume that Verizon’s iPhone share would drop 40% to around 8.42%. But with 30M iPhones, their share would drop to 10.67% - a QOQ drop of 9% - similar to AT&T’s.

    The lowest US iPhone share ever was 25.25% in 2010 Q4. 35M iPhones would bring us a US Share of 25%. So it seems that the data is telling us a iPhone number in the low 30’s and anything above 35M iPhones is quite unlikely.

         
  • Posted: 24 April 2012 03:06 PM #230

    So say I wanted to upgrade to a 4S with AT&T so I sold my 3GS it to a buddy who activated a new account with AT&T.

    In terms of AT&T reported numbers does this count as two activations or one? Its only one new Iphone sold.


    What if I were to switch my Iphone from one carrier to another, are de-activations counted? Does this activation count in the numbers even though I already own my phone?

    I am very ready for this day to be over… I really hope all these sellers are not the smart money!

         
  • Posted: 24 April 2012 03:38 PM #231

    sfhc210 - 24 April 2012 05:48 PM
    sfhc210 - 19 April 2012 04:11 PM

    So one of two things is likely to happen. Either Verizon’s total iPhone share drops nearly 40% to 8.42% or AT&T’s QOQ drop is much higher than Verizon’s - around 40% with only 4.25M iPhones sold. Let’s hope for a much lower Verizon percentage of total iPhones sold.

    Turns out AT&T’s drop was much bigger than Verizon’s…the number was almost spot on.

    Look at AT&T’s iPhone share for the past year.

    2011
    Q1 19.31%
    Q2 17.70%
    Q3 15.81%
    Q4 20.52%

    Of course, Q4 there was a lot of pent up demand for the 4S. But before that, their share was slipping about 10% per quarter. If we assume that AT&T continues this trend, a 10% slip compared to Q3 would put AT&T at about 14.23% share. That gives us a total of about 30M iPhones.

    Furthermore, this would agree with the Data on Verizon.

    2011
    Q1 11.80%
    Q2 11.31%
    Q3 11.71%
    Q4 11.61%

    It was hard to assume that Verizon’s iPhone share would drop 40% to around 8.42%. But with 30M iPhones, their share would drop to 10.67% - a QOQ drop of 9% - similar to AT&T’s.

    The lowest US iPhone share ever was 25.25% in 2010 Q4. 35M iPhones would bring us a US Share of 25%. So it seems that the data is telling us a iPhone number in the low 30’s and anything above 35M iPhones is quite unlikely.

    Except for the fact that every single carrier added since Sprint has been international. That is the most relevant point to all of that and that is why international share of iPhone sales should hit an all time high in the March Q. You said it yourself, large pent up demand for iPhone in the holiday Q caused a spike in sales that were disproportionately domestic due to limited global availability of 4S. Now we have massive worldwide rollout this Q of 4S around the world. 75%+ international seems extremely likely, especially since we’ve already seen 75% before. Knowing that we’ve seen 75% previously suggests to me that iPhone is in position for an upside surprise.

         
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    Posted: 24 April 2012 03:47 PM #232

    AT, seriously, it’s starting to sound like every launch country market who got the iPhone 4S first is down like 30-50% sequentially and the tons of other countries added at fiscal Q1’s end/fiscal Q2 aren’t material. 

    Call an optometrist, some of us have a case of myopia. 

    It’s not that the bears might not be right, it IS that the bears, if right, will be right for the wrong reasons.

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  • Posted: 24 April 2012 04:05 PM #233

    Mav - 24 April 2012 06:47 PM

    AT, seriously, it’s starting to sound like every launch country market who got the iPhone 4S first is down like 30-50% sequentially and the tons of other countries added at fiscal Q1’s end/fiscal Q2 aren’t material. 

    Call an optometrist, some of us have a case of myopia. 

    It’s not that the bears might not be right, it IS that the bears, if right, will be right for the wrong reasons.

    We shall see in 90 minutes. Do you think there is a reason Apple launched so aggressively in other countries? Surely it had something to do with expecting domestic sequential decline? Surely, guidance in late January already factored this in? If AZ is right and iPhone is down markedly but iPad is way up, I’ll accept that but to say all the other countries launched are “immaterial” is fairly ridiculous. I guess in your view the global smartphone market = the U.S. smartphone market? Obviously I know that isn’t the case but I’m not sure how every other country in the world is immaterial?

         
  • Posted: 24 April 2012 04:07 PM #234

    By my estimates:

    - Att’s total smartphone sales are flat YOY @ 5.5m indicating perhaps a “terminal” point of smartphone penetration at 78% of all phones?

    - ATT non-iPhone **smartphone** sales tanked from 1.9m to $1.1 while iPhone up 20% a major gain of share, now at 60% of ALL phones at ATT!

    - At VZ, on the other hand, iPhone smartphone share remained flat YOY at ~ 50% (if adjusted for the fact that 2011 Q1 only had 2 months of iPhone sales)


    Big takeaways (at least for me)

    - In the US the iPhone growth is tapering to the “teens” % rate
    - 50% market share of ALL phone sales is possible in the US,  and perhaps ultimately, at least 30% market share of all mobile phones WW is not unreasonable.

    [ Edited: 24 April 2012 04:15 PM by iphoned ]      
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    Posted: 24 April 2012 04:12 PM #235

    How many iPhones did Apple sell?


    More like, how many DIDN’T they sell?

    Zero.

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    Posted: 24 April 2012 04:14 PM #236

    adamthompson32 - 24 April 2012 07:05 PM

    We shall see in 90 minutes. Do you think there is a reason Apple launched so aggressively in other countries? Surely it had something to do with expecting domestic sequential decline? Surely, guidance in late January already factored this in? If AZ is right and iPhone is down markedly but iPad is way up, I’ll accept that but to say all the other countries launched are “immaterial” is fairly ridiculous. I guess in your view the global smartphone market = the U.S. smartphone market? Obviously I know that isn’t the case but I’m not sure how every other country in the world is immaterial?

    Sarcasm, AT.  Not trying to call out anyone here so I veiled the remarks a bit.  As you should know from my previous posts, I think expanding iPhone distribution in such a MASSIVE way (I mean come on, countries totalling FIVE FRICKIN’ BILLION PEOPLE.  In less than 5-6 months!) has to lead to a damn good fight against the forces of sequential decline.  You can’t really even count India on the fiscal Q1 side.  But China on the fiscal Q2 side?  Crazy huge growth potential!

    That’s why, even if I’m totally wrong, I’m sticking with sequential increase in iPhone sales.

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  • Posted: 24 April 2012 04:15 PM #237

    iphoned - 24 April 2012 07:07 PM

    By my estimates:

    - Att’s total smartphone sales are flat YOY @ 5.5m indicating perhaps a “terminal” point of smartphone penetration at 78% of all phones?

    - ATT non-iPhone sales tanked from 1.9m to $1.1 while iPhone up 20% a major gain of share, now at 60% of ALL phones at ATT!

    - At VZ, on the other hand, iPhone smartphone share remained flat YOY at ~ 50% (if adjusted for the fact that 2011 Q1 only had 2 months of iPhone sales)


    Big takeaways (at least for me)

    - In the US the iPhone growth is tapering to the “teens” % rate
    - 50% market share of ALL phone sales is possible in the US,  and perhaps ultimately, at least 30% market share of all mobile phones WW is not unreasonable.

    The big takeaways are BIG and that is exactly why AAPL is such a golden opportunity. This market is ginormous and Apple is strengthening its position. I don’t know when exactly we will see 200 million iPhones sold in a 12 month period but it’s not that far off and that is going to happen with very little iPhone share growth going forward. The market is huge and growing rapidly around the world. If Apple can get to just 30% of all smartphones sold and hold that share 200 million units per year is coming very soon.

         
  • Posted: 24 April 2012 04:20 PM #238

    adamthompson32 - 24 April 2012 07:15 PM
    iphoned - 24 April 2012 07:07 PM

    By my estimates:

    - Att’s total smartphone sales are flat YOY @ 5.5m indicating perhaps a “terminal” point of smartphone penetration at 78% of all phones?

    - ATT non-iPhone sales tanked from 1.9m to $1.1 while iPhone up 20% a major gain of share, now at 60% of ALL phones at ATT!

    - At VZ, on the other hand, iPhone smartphone share remained flat YOY at ~ 50% (if adjusted for the fact that 2011 Q1 only had 2 months of iPhone sales)


    Big takeaways (at least for me)

    - In the US the iPhone growth is tapering to the “teens” % rate
    - 50% market share of ALL phone sales is possible in the US,  and perhaps ultimately, at least 30% market share of all mobile phones WW is not unreasonable.

    The big takeaways are BIG and that is exactly why AAPL is such a golden opportunity. This market is ginormous and Apple is strengthening its position. I don’t know when exactly we will see 200 million iPhones sold in a 12 month period but it’s not that far off and that is going to happen with very little iPhone share growth going forward. The market is huge and growing rapidly around the world. If Apple can get to just 30% of all smartphones sold and hold that share 200 million units per year is coming very soon.

    Well, the total mobile phone market is something lik 1.5b units/year.  30% penetration yields 500m units.  Assuming iPhone can eventually reach that share of the overall market, tells you there is room for Apple to to tripple/quadruple iphone sales, before growth tapers to low teens. A double should be a bankable number.

         
  • Posted: 24 April 2012 04:20 PM #239

    Mav - 24 April 2012 07:14 PM
    adamthompson32 - 24 April 2012 07:05 PM

    We shall see in 90 minutes. Do you think there is a reason Apple launched so aggressively in other countries? Surely it had something to do with expecting domestic sequential decline? Surely, guidance in late January already factored this in? If AZ is right and iPhone is down markedly but iPad is way up, I’ll accept that but to say all the other countries launched are “immaterial” is fairly ridiculous. I guess in your view the global smartphone market = the U.S. smartphone market? Obviously I know that isn’t the case but I’m not sure how every other country in the world is immaterial?

    Sarcasm, AT.  Not trying to call out anyone here so I veiled the remarks a bit.  As you should know from my previous posts, I think expanding iPhone distribution in such a MASSIVE way (I mean come on, countries totalling FIVE FRICKIN’ BILLION PEOPLE.  In less than 5-6 months!) has to lead to a damn good fight against the forces of sequential decline.  You can’t really even count India on the fiscal Q1 side.  But China on the fiscal Q2 side?  Crazy huge growth potential!

    That’s why, even if I’m totally wrong, I’m sticking with sequential increase in iPhone sales.

    My bad, Mav. Didn’t catch the sarcasm. I do have to admit that I am a bit jumpy right now, as I always am on earnings days. I put $10K into some May $600’s hoping for a quick double or thereabouts when iPhone surprises to the upside. I just think we are in the very first inning of the global iPhone rollout.

    Asymco and others have often mentioned that U.S. trends in smartphones often are a harbinger of things to come in other markets. That is apparently why RIMM’s slowdown in the U.S. was so negative for the company overall and its stock even though its sales were growing outside the U.S. Well, here we have iPhone dominating on domestic carriers and just getting started globall on multiple carriers in each country. Sure, exclusivity was broken a while back elsewhere but we still have 300 more carriers still to come in a rapidly growing market where international markets are far less mature than the U.S. I just can’t help but think the lion’s share of Apple’s growth is coming from abroad and it’s going to shock and awe some of these imbecile analysts. Maybe it takes a bit longer to get there than I think but I think this quarter is the beginning of that massive trend that should continue for the next few years.

         
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    Posted: 24 April 2012 04:21 PM #240

    OK - I’m taking the champagne off ice and puting a diaper on…..  just in case.

    I’d rather drink warm champagne than crap in my pants.

    Best of luck everyone!

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