How Many iPhones Did Apple Sell In The March Quarter?

  • Posted: 19 April 2012 02:51 PM #61

    Gregg Thurman - 19 April 2012 05:45 PM
    terps530 - 19 April 2012 02:28 PM

    I have a question- does anyone know if iphone sales in China are subsidized to the public through their carrier, the way it is here?

    I was trying to find any iphone sales data in China, but what I did find is that the 4S costs 4988 yuan, which is almost $800 USD.  I am wondering is that what people have to pay there for the phone, or is it less through phone service?

    A couple articles say the iphone is the ultimate status symbol in China, and was only 5.7% of the market share (Android had 68% (both as of Q4 2011).  I wonder when that figure will start to balance out etc, and why.  That clearly will bring in HUGE amounts of money if/when it happens.

    Most handsets sold in China are not subsidized (pre-pay accounts).  However, Apple is working with its authorized carriers to shift its customers to post paid accounts.  This enables subsidies to be paid, reducing initial handset cost.  Apple’s efforts are paying off very well, but I don’t know what the mis is.  If anything the shift to post-paid will increase iPhone unit sales.

    Anyone at all concerned about the 200k of pre-orders at China Telecom? It was a very paltry number for a carrier that’s been waiting years for the iPhone. But I didn’t hear too many people concerned about it when it was announced.

         
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    Posted: 19 April 2012 03:33 PM #62

    I suspect Thurs drop is a reflection of uncertainty/fear caused by the VZ iPhone #.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

         
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    Posted: 19 April 2012 03:43 PM #63

    Good excuse anyway.

    Big picture, iPhone 4/4S is the new dominant smartphone duo on Verizon.

    But the decrease in iPhone activations, while expected, still has to be looked at closely.

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  • Posted: 19 April 2012 03:48 PM #64

    johnG - 19 April 2012 06:33 PM

    I suspect Thurs drop is a reflection of uncertainty/fear caused by the VZ iPhone #.

      cheers to the longs
        JohnG

    Perhaps, but it’s total B.S.  VZ sold a big # for a variety of reasons, including the fact VZ started selling the iPhone in the March quarter a year ago.  I’m not surprised to see a YOY decline.

    It shouldn’t impact total iPhones much, as international sales should cover any decline reported by Verizon.  And then some. 

    Pure, unadulterated FUD in my opinion.  Buy hey, whatever W.S. can do to F the retail investor!

         
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    Posted: 19 April 2012 03:57 PM #65

    Of course.

    Mercel, what we need are some extra facts.

    Gotta look up those US activation numbers data for iPhone later.  Though, as I type AAPL is recovering to around 590.

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  • Posted: 19 April 2012 04:05 PM #66

    Gene Munster called into CNBC to say that he stands by his iPhone numbers of 33mln even though consensus is 30mln on the street.

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    Posted: 19 April 2012 04:51 PM #67

    Phoebear611 - 19 April 2012 07:05 PM

    Gene Munster called into CNBC to say that he stands by his iPhone numbers of 33mln even though consensus is 30mln on the street.

    I agree with the 33 million number.

    We have a tiny bit of irrational exuberance on this board (to be expected), as 33 million iPhones sold would be a GREAT number, but most AFB estimates are well north of that.

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    Posted: 19 April 2012 04:56 PM #68

    Here are the launch dates for the iPhone 4S in countries which will have a big impact on additional Q2 revenues:

    Dec. 16th: Bahrain, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Morocco, Peru, the Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam.

    Jan. 12th: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Botswana, British Virgin Islands, Cameroon, Cayman Islands, Central African Republic, China, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Grenada, Guam, Guinea Conakry, Ivory Coast, Jamaica, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Niger, Senegal, St. Vincent and The Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos and Uganda.

    Jan. 27th: Indonesia, Costa Rica

    March 9th: China Telecom

    Also, maybe a good indicator to assess China’s impact:
    http://www.macrumors.com/2012/03/21/china-surpasses-u-s-ios-and-android-activations-for-first-time/

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  • Posted: 19 April 2012 07:32 PM #69

    Everyone:

    1. Verizon’s “activations” are not equivalent to Verizon’s “sales.”

    Domestic activations on the Verizon network include customer activations from a variety of sources including Apple retail store sales, Apple online store sales to Verizon customers and activations at Verizon sales outlets.

    Sales to Verizon will be determined by the number of units shipped to Verizon. Apple books sales upon the transfer of ownership, not necessarily when the device is activated by the end user.

    2. I expect an average sequential drop in iPhone unit “sales” of about 20% in all territories that participated in the October 2011 launch in the US (including sales domestically through Apple retail stores, Verizon stores and AT&T stores) and all other and all other geographic regions.

    3. Sales will be determined by the number of units shipped worldwide to carriers plus sales through Apple’s direct distribution channels. Activations are a different matter. Yes. Activations lead to more shipments and more shipments lead to more sales to consumers for activation, but activations and sales are two different numbers.

    4. Clues to the March quarter iPhone unit sales can be found in the YOY comparison of the revenue performance in the Asia-Pacific region in the 1st fiscal quarters of FY 2011 and FY 2012.

    I’ll give you an example. Apple ended the December quarter with less than 6 million iPhones in the global channel. If Apple increases global channel supply to let’s say 7 or 8 million units at the end of the March quarter (iPhones considered sold by Apple because ownership has been transferred to the carrier that purchased the units(those additional units will be considered “sold” by Apple but will not be “activated” through sales to the end user until after the end of the quarter.

         
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    Posted: 19 April 2012 08:03 PM #70

    While that’s true, activations are the only data point we have to go on.  I’ll dig through the data for any correlations between known US activations and actual iPhone sales.  They’ll be weak at best but I think the exercise should be worth the fairly nominal effort.

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  • Posted: 19 April 2012 09:11 PM #71

    Mav - 19 April 2012 11:03 PM

    While that’s true, activations are the only data point we have to go on.  I’ll dig through the data for any correlations between known US activations and actual iPhone sales.  They’ll be weak at best but I think the exercise should be worth the fairly nominal effort.

    Mav:

    That’s not a useful data point when most analysts already expect a sequential decline in the domestic sales. In the March quarter more than 50% of iPhone units sold will occur outside the US. There will be a much higher percentage of sales through carriers rather than through Apple in the quarter necessitating higher channel inventory supplies.

    Also, the iPhone 4S came into the market as the original two-year Droid contracts expired and in the quarter in which AT&T customers who started with the original iPhone in 2007 reached the end of their second two-year iPhone contracts, allowing for a switch back to Verizon if they chose.

    The activation number from Verizon has little value without the same number from AT&T and Sprint and any of the smaller, regional carriers that might have been added during the quarter. Sprint is under real pressure to purchase and sell iPhones.

    Again, more than 50% of iPhone sales will be outside the US with a much higher percentage of sales through carriers necessitating shipment and sales of product before activation.

    A 20% drop in sequential domestic iPhone unit sales is expected in the March quarter.

         
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    Posted: 19 April 2012 09:13 PM #72

    Wait until I finish my little home game exercise first (charting all known activation data points, so it’ll be more of an AT&T-focused exercise).  wink  I don’t expect it to tell me much but we’ll see.

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  • Posted: 19 April 2012 09:34 PM #73

    Mav - 20 April 2012 12:13 AM

    Wait until I finish my little home game exercise first (charting all known activation data points, so it’ll be more of an AT&T-focused exercise).  wink  I don’t expect it to tell me much but we’ll see.

    If your exercise can determine the increase in units shipped into the Asia-Pacific region YOY I’m interested and the amount of shipments Apple made into all regions to carriers in the closing week of the quarter, I’ll be even more interested. Verizon activations alone mean nothing.  Most of us expect a sequential drop in reported iPhone unit “sales” on the scale of 20%.

         
  • Posted: 19 April 2012 09:36 PM #74

    When it comes to the question posed in the thread title, as they were wont to say back home:

    “We’re fixing to find out before too long.”

         
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    Posted: 19 April 2012 09:48 PM #75

    Robert, you’re really not sure what I’m trying are you.  :D

    Partly my fault for not being clear.  I’m trying to find the _absence_ of correlation between US activation numbers and iPhone growth.  Proving negatives is tough and I’d fine with no discernible pattern whatsoever.  As for Asia-Pacific, one region at a time.  You can consider my thought exercise, when I get around to it, a useless deal I’m only doing for myself.

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