AAPL Q3 Estimates

  • Posted: 24 April 2012 11:42 PM #16

    Gregg Thurman - 25 April 2012 02:39 AM
    adamthompson32 - 25 April 2012 02:14 AM

    And this probably isn’t the place for it but keep in mind that Apple has some tricks up its sleeve. Notably:

    1. It is booking some tax expense for cash held overseas. If there is ever a tax holiday, Apple will take that accrued expense to net income. Basically, Apple is understating net income today but I don’t know by how much exactly.

    2. The revenue deferral on its devices is still a drag on ASPs across all hardware product lines. This may be the right thing to do accounting wise but it causes Apple to understate its revenue a bit. Of course, guidance factors this in too but it’s worth noting.

    Revenue deferral isn’t all that much. It starts at $30, then is recaptured over the next 7 quarters.

    I know, but since they only recently started it there is a real impact, at least for the next year or so, but the impact will be diminished slightly each quarter going forward.

         
  • Posted: 24 April 2012 11:43 PM #17

    omacvi - 25 April 2012 02:26 AM

    [.

    But lets look at it by looking forward from this quarter in a backwards fashion.

    If we project 80%  eps growth from FY 12 to F13 we must look at this FY 3rd and 4th quarter growth so we can get at least 56.  That means that this quarter or 3rd quarter needs to come in at 14 and then fourth quarter at 15.  That would only be possible if we get the iPhone 5 in July.

    Funny you should say that. There were several comments made this afternoon, that lead me to believe we’ll see the next iPhone in late June/early July.

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  • Posted: 24 April 2012 11:46 PM #18

    Gregg Thurman - 25 April 2012 02:43 AM
    omacvi - 25 April 2012 02:26 AM

    [.

    But lets look at it by looking forward from this quarter in a backwards fashion.

    If we project 80%  eps growth from FY 12 to F13 we must look at this FY 3rd and 4th quarter growth so we can get at least 56.  That means that this quarter or 3rd quarter needs to come in at 14 and then fourth quarter at 15.  That would only be possible if we get the iPhone 5 in July.

    Funny you should say that. There were several comments made this afternoon, that lead me to believe we’ll see the next iPhone in late June/early July.

    Why do you think that Gregg? I can’t personally see them launching a new phone so quickly after the last launch and I think they like the 6 month stagger between iPhone and iPad but who knows? I’m not sure if I hope you’re right but I certainly wouldn’t mind it. Might open up an October launch window for the new Apple TV product.

         
  • Posted: 24 April 2012 11:48 PM #19

    adamthompson32 - 25 April 2012 02:42 AM
    Gregg Thurman - 25 April 2012 02:39 AM
    adamthompson32 - 25 April 2012 02:14 AM

    And this probably isn’t the place for it but keep in mind that Apple has some tricks up its sleeve. Notably:

    1. It is booking some tax expense for cash held overseas. If there is ever a tax holiday, Apple will take that accrued expense to net income. Basically, Apple is understating net income today but I don’t know by how much exactly.

    2. The revenue deferral on its devices is still a drag on ASPs across all hardware product lines. This may be the right thing to do accounting wise but it causes Apple to understate its revenue a bit. Of course, guidance factors this in too but it’s worth noting.

    Revenue deferral isn’t all that much. It starts at $30, then is recaptured over the next 7 quarters.

    I know, but since they only recently started it there is a real impact, at least for the next year or so, but the impact will be diminished slightly each quarter going forward.

    Not really. Apple started revenue deferral decades ago. Only back then the only item that required it was AppleCare. Income from the iPhone ($30/unit) has been deferred since original launch. The same thing is true of the iPad. The amount deferred, in the aggregate, increases each quarter.

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    Posted: 24 April 2012 11:49 PM #20

    Gregg Thurman - 25 April 2012 02:43 AM
    omacvi - 25 April 2012 02:26 AM

    [.

    But lets look at it by looking forward from this quarter in a backwards fashion.

    If we project 80%  eps growth from FY 12 to F13 we must look at this FY 3rd and 4th quarter growth so we can get at least 56.  That means that this quarter or 3rd quarter needs to come in at 14 and then fourth quarter at 15.  That would only be possible if we get the iPhone 5 in July.

    Funny you should say that. There were several comments made this afternoon, that lead me to believe we’ll see the next iPhone in late June/early July.

    I actually saw your comment Gregg regarding this.  I have a hard time seeing a July release, but maybe they can surprise us with August or early Sept.

         
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    Posted: 25 April 2012 12:10 AM #21

    No, I will bet you a virtual BENJAMIN a next-gen iPhone is not in the cards by July.

    Oh yes, I’m betting big virtual currency cribbed with a little help from Google Images or somewheres.

    The only condition is no iOS 6 preview by the end of this month.  And I bet (no virtual currency on this one) that iOS 6 will wait until WWDC.  October launch all over again?  No bad thing!

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  • Posted: 25 April 2012 12:54 AM #22

    Gregg Thurman - 25 April 2012 02:48 AM
    adamthompson32 - 25 April 2012 02:42 AM
    Gregg Thurman - 25 April 2012 02:39 AM
    adamthompson32 - 25 April 2012 02:14 AM

    And this probably isn’t the place for it but keep in mind that Apple has some tricks up its sleeve. Notably:

    1. It is booking some tax expense for cash held overseas. If there is ever a tax holiday, Apple will take that accrued expense to net income. Basically, Apple is understating net income today but I don’t know by how much exactly.

    2. The revenue deferral on its devices is still a drag on ASPs across all hardware product lines. This may be the right thing to do accounting wise but it causes Apple to understate its revenue a bit. Of course, guidance factors this in too but it’s worth noting.

    Revenue deferral isn’t all that much. It starts at $30, then is recaptured over the next 7 quarters.

    I know, but since they only recently started it there is a real impact, at least for the next year or so, but the impact will be diminished slightly each quarter going forward.

    Not really. Apple started revenue deferral decades ago. Only back then the only item that required it was AppleCare. Income from the iPhone ($30/unit) has been deferred since original launch. The same thing is true of the iPad. The amount deferred, in the aggregate, increases each quarter.

    The amount deferred increases each quarter but is offset by the amortization of past sales such that the biggest negative impact occurs in the first quarters after such deferrals begin and I believe the deferral for iCloud began only two quarters ago.

         
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    Posted: 25 April 2012 02:13 AM #23

    Prazan - 25 April 2012 02:16 AM
    Gregg Thurman - 24 April 2012 10:57 PM
    Burgess - 24 April 2012 10:42 PM

    So now we have some guidance & Q2 performance known, what are the early ballpark predictions for Q3?

    Working from 43.50% GM (2% higher than guidance), iPad growth, and iPhone shrinkage (clearing the channel before iPhone 5 in Q4):

    20 million ipads
    28 million iphones
    5.5 million macs
    7 million ipods

    EPS $12.00

    I haven’t done my numbers yet, but I think yours are going to be close.

    One take away I got from the conference call, was that I think Apple is going to launch the next iPhone in late June, or early July.  I do not not buy the decrease in demand/enough supply in the channel talk.  It sounds more like June will be a draw down quarter in anticipation of a upgrade launch.  Remember, Apple tried to warn us of that last July for the September quarter, and we didn’t take heed.

    There is a good reason why I think Apple would want to launch in June/July.  That would be the iPhone form factor.  I don’t think it is getting long in the tooth.  It is clean and very functional, BUT, the competition thinks so as well, hence the strong similarities (copies?) to the iPhone.

    A new form factor enabled by liquid metal technology and Corning’s new gorilla glass make possible significant form factor changes that will visually differentiate the NEW iPhone from the competition.

    At best, the competition won’t be able to react until after the December quarter, and by then it will be too late.

    This time next year I see some dramatic consolidation among the following:

    MSFT, GOOG, NOK, MOT, HTC, RIMM, LG and SE.  The dominant players (Apple and Samsung) will command 75%-80% of the smartphone market worldwide.  Samsung, being an unabashed copier, will be held in check with a form factor change by Apple, limiting Samsung’s share to under 10%.

    I might add LTE. It’s the only real sales advantage some models have, and Apple has already gone there with the new iPad. I suspect the new form factor may have been ready before SJ passed, at least in prototype. Just a feeling.

    I would think it would have been finalized by then to engineering verification hopefully (or at least a couple of models). Most important feature for me would be compatibility with China Mobiles 3G network!

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  • Posted: 25 April 2012 03:15 AM #24

    Let the bozos put forth retarded estimates yet again.

    http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/12/04/25/wall_street_q2_earnings_prove_apple_is_beginning_international_growth_story.html

    The iPhone number will start with a 3 and the second number will be 2 or 3. They’re only off by 5 million or so.

    http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/12/04/25/wall_street_q2_earnings_prove_apple_is_beginning_international_growth_story.html

         
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    Posted: 25 April 2012 04:24 AM #25

    I’ll start a little conservative for now.

    31M iPhones, 18.95M iPads, 4.5M Macs, $40.28B revs / $12.13 EPS.

    Oppenheimer and Cook did craft a decent puzzle this time around.  Hammering home sequential downtick in iPhones, really trying to sell the supply/demand balance/channel fill angle.  At the same time, guiding sequentially up and projecting surprisingly high OpEx.  Among other things.

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    Posted: 25 April 2012 10:05 AM #26

    Mav - 25 April 2012 03:10 AM

    No, I will bet you a virtual BENJAMIN a next-gen iPhone is not in the cards by July.

    Oh yes, I’m betting big virtual currency cribbed with a little help from Google Images or somewheres.

    The only condition is no iOS 6 preview by the end of this month.  And I bet (no virtual currency on this one) that iOS 6 will wait until WWDC.  October launch all over again?  No bad thing!

    Why October.  My betting money is on Sep.  The rollout of iCloud significantly increased the complexity of the software release which resulted in extra weeks of testing.  Apple likes to launch toward the end of fiscal qtrs.

    [ Edited: 25 April 2012 10:08 AM by pats ]      
  • Posted: 25 April 2012 11:16 AM #27

    Mav - 25 April 2012 03:10 AM

    No, I will bet you a virtual BENJAMIN a next-gen iPhone is not in the cards by July.

    Oh yes, I’m betting big virtual currency cribbed with a little help from Google Images or somewheres.

    The only condition is no iOS 6 preview by the end of this month.  And I bet (no virtual currency on this one) that iOS 6 will wait until WWDC.  October launch all over again?  No

    Just got my WWDC invitation. June.

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  • Posted: 25 April 2012 12:05 PM #28

    Gregg Thurman - 25 April 2012 02:16 PM
    Mav - 25 April 2012 03:10 AM

    No, I will bet you a virtual BENJAMIN a next-gen iPhone is not in the cards by July.

    Oh yes, I’m betting big virtual currency cribbed with a little help from Google Images or somewheres.

    The only condition is no iOS 6 preview by the end of this month.  And I bet (no virtual currency on this one) that iOS 6 will wait until WWDC.  October launch all over again?  No

    Just got my WWDC invitation. June.

    Sold out in two hours.

         
  • Posted: 25 April 2012 12:21 PM #29

    pats - 25 April 2012 01:05 PM
    Mav - 25 April 2012 03:10 AM

    No, I will bet you a virtual BENJAMIN a next-gen iPhone is not in the cards by July.

    Oh yes, I’m betting big virtual currency cribbed with a little help from Google Images or somewheres.

    The only condition is no iOS 6 preview by the end of this month.  And I bet (no virtual currency on this one) that iOS 6 will wait until WWDC.  October launch all over again?  No bad thing!

    Why October.  My betting money is on Sep.  The rollout of iCloud significantly increased the complexity of the software release which resulted in extra weeks of testing.  Apple likes to launch toward the end of fiscal qtrs.

    I have been hoping for a September launch. Maybe right after Labor Day. It just makes the most sense. By that time you can guarantee major reductions in 4S purchases due to iP5 anticipation. So they are going to need those 2-3 weeks of launch just to balance out the Quarter so we don’t have a huge drop off like last year.

    But the most important reason for September (vs. October) is they need as much ramp up time as possible for Christmas. They had the same form factor last year and still had stock outs through January. With a new form factor, and much higher demand, they are going to need that extra time and more.

    Now that I write it down, they better release in August…...

         
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    Posted: 26 April 2012 12:37 AM #30

    pats - 25 April 2012 01:05 PM

    My betting money is on Sep.  The rollout of iCloud significantly increased the complexity of the software release which resulted in extra weeks of testing.  Apple likes to launch toward the end of fiscal qtrs.

    Yes!

    Sep/Oct - Feb/Mar: iPhone & iPod ramps
    Mar/Apr - Aug/Sep: iPad & Mac ramps

    Something is always ramping up!