AAPL Q3 Estimates
I agree. Channel inventory will not be drawn down until and unless a new iPhone release is imminent. With 8 million in channel inventory, it doesn’t make sense to draw it down just yet if we have almost another quarter’s worth of sales of the current iPhones. Since it is highly likely that the iPhone 4G/5 will be released in September or October, that draw down will occur next quarter.
Regarding the next iPhone release, we might see another “miss” in the September quarter like last year if the next iPhone doesn’t begin selling before October. It could be quite dramatic. However, this will set up for Q1 ‘13 like last year to be the mother of all blowouts ($20+ EPS).
As for this quarter EPS, I see the bare minimum floor being $12.30. iPad sales will be incredibly strong and iPhone sales will not drop below 28 million. Factor in a week or two of what will probably be 4 new macs in sales, and we are likely to see $13+ in EPS.
I think iPhone channel inventory was increased specifically so that Apple could begin production transition THIS quarter. We didn’t get a June announcement as I had thought, so I’m feeling that July will be the month.
You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.
September, more likely October. Tune in Monday for clues on the iOS 6 release date. That’s the best clue we’ll likely get for a while.
The Summer of AAPL is here. Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
AFB Night Owl Team™
September 21 is my guess for the release data of the new iPhone