Recalibrating Estimates in the Midsummer of Apple’s Growth

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    Posted: 05 May 2012 01:14 PM #16

    adamthompson32 - 05 May 2012 03:32 PM
    Mav - 05 May 2012 05:37 AM

    I’m skeptical of 1.7B smartphones by 2016.

    That presumes an enormous smartphone installed base given replacement cycles.  And a demographic of…age 3 to 99?  Apparently there’s 6B handsets in active use but I expect “convergence” the smarter the handsets get.  How many of us (not in enterprise, which I wouldn’t expect to be a billion-sized market by any means) have multiple smartphones in active use?  “One for home, one for work” sounds more like an iPad/iPhone combination use case than a two-smartphone use case.

    I’m not skeptical of Apple’s ability to dominate in a fair playing field - see, uh, the entire US smartphone market.  But this _is_ the estimate recalibration thread.  We know Apple’s winning big in smartphones and could even win whatever smartphone endgame there is in whatever metrics (like profit) really matter.  The more immediate question is, how to get more accurate estimates?

    Btw, where were you for fiscal Q2 AT?

    Where was I for what? I was at $12.75 EPS. Sequential iPhone growth of one unit. All I’m doing is multiplying guidance by 1.5. It really is that simple. Sure, if you want to be a little less bullish than Apple management is, you can use something like 1.45 to get a good conservative EPS estimate.

    LOL - the thoughtful analysis meets rule of thumb

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    Posted: 05 May 2012 02:51 PM #17

    Stop doing that soon AT.  I think you can see why that analysis will not make sense much longer.

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  • Posted: 05 May 2012 03:30 PM #18

    Mav - 05 May 2012 05:51 PM

    Stop doing that soon AT.  I think you can see why that analysis will not make sense much longer.

    I can’t, actually, so I’ll continue until it no longer works. For now, it’s sure as heck working.