AAPL Intraday Updates - Archive

  • Posted: 30 April 2012 12:31 AM #16

    Monday

    R4       620.27
      midpoint   617.43
    R3       614.59
      midpoint   611.75
    R2       608.91
      midpoint   607.43
    R1       605.95
      midpoint   604.59
    PP       603.23
      midpoint   601.75
    S1       600.27
      midpoint   598.91
    S2       597.55
      midpoint   594.71
    S3       591.87
      midpoint   589.03
    S4       586.19

         
  • Posted: 30 April 2012 12:41 AM #17

    Here is some crap from the UK guardian, being triggered by the NYT article:

    Greed and the rotten Apple syndrome
    guardian.co.uk, Sunday 29 April 2012 16.00 EDT

    The reason that Apple does not produce its expensive toys in the US (Bad Apple?, G2, 24 April) is not because the late Steve Jobs and the current CEO were necessarily extremely greedy but because corporate shareholders demand that they maximise profits for investors. Indeed, company law both here and in the US places an implied demand on directors to do so. Add to that the global deregulation and free-trade agenda driven by the corporate giants over the last 30 years and we have a situation where hundreds of millions of people work in factories and on plantations in conditions little better than those endured by slaves in centuries gone by.

    The enormous profits generated by the transnational companies from their exploitative activities ? such as the $11.6bn made by Apple over the last 12 months ? and the consequent glut of capital inevitably lead to speculation in commodities, complex financial transactions and private-equity asset-stripping in the search for still more profits until the bubble bursts and the whole edifice collapses, with disastrous results for the vast majority of the world’s population.

    Until such time as the economy is put at the service of the people, and not the other way round, the cycle of boom and bust will continue. For this to happen the profit motive would have to cease to be the sole driver of economic activity and the means of production be democratised to benefit the majority rather than just the obscenely remunerated bosses. However, with governments in thrall to big business and wedded to an unsustainable economic model of infinite growth, the rotten Apple syndrome will be with us for the foreseeable future.
    Bert Schouwenburg
    International officer, GMB

    It’s a letter from published in the Guardian in the UK. For a tad more detail from Wikipedia:

    GMB is a general trade union in the United Kingdom, and has more than 617,000 members. Its members are drawn from many sectors, with particular strength amongst manual workers in local government including schools, health care and the ambulance service, security, retail, distribution and the utilities.

    To offset this, the guys at JOT published this this morning:

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    Posted: 30 April 2012 12:41 AM #18

    Burgess - 30 April 2012 12:19 AM

    Most around here have there own definition of what a WTF sale is, but mine is as follows:

    WTF Sale Price = AAPL < (10 x TTM Earnings) + Cash.

    After the Jan Earnings report apple dropped into my WTF sale range and I went all in (and stayed there). What followed was of course the greatest 3 months of my investment lifetime.

    After last weeks earnings and the corresponding share price bump, AAPL is currently quite far out of my WTF sale region (which would now be in the $530?s region and below.)
    ....

    $530, down from $644, would be the largest pullback from an ATH we’ve seen since the Great Recession, apart from the May 2010 flash crash. That’s a WTF sale by any definition.

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    The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 01:17 AM #19

    Burgess - 30 April 2012 02:39 AM
    lovemyipad - 30 April 2012 12:39 AM

    Burgess, GREAT post—thank you!!! smile

    Thanks mod smile

    I don’t know anything about TA / Charts, but a share price of 10xPE + Cash seems like a good support level to me…for a company growing as fast as apple.

    I would venture to say the current technicals support that. wink

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 01:22 AM #20

    What’s on tap for tomorrow, btw?

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 01:43 AM #21

    We open well, with the overhang from weekly OE removed and the big houses buying after getting their Monday morning analysis and digesting the good news from last week further. The key takeaway…Apple is still not overvalued and the September quarter will be fine despite traditional low-ball guidance from the company.  Portfolio managers want Apple in the month end statements, so they do some window dressing buying.

    This makes Monday and Tuesday good days, and we near 618.  But Wednesday through Friday are softer and we might end up back near 605.  :oh:

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 01:44 AM #22

    Bullish above 620.

    Bearish below 598.

    Neutral in the middle.

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 01:55 AM #23

    lovemyipad - 30 April 2012 04:44 AM

    Bullish above 620.

    Bearish below 598.

    Neutral in the middle.

    Last June, when we touched 310, sticks with me.  Yes, we had SJ’s health, lots of FUD and other macro events causing a slipstream. But Europe is still a mess and domestic cash hoards are not being deployed in our stock market.  Rather, outflows have begun again…like last year.  I am very cautious about the next three months despite Apple’ fundamentals.  Money managers will be protecting some early year gains…..late May through June show up on my Ouija Board as harder times….

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 01:58 AM #24

    Well, I guess I’ll kinda answer my own question about what’s on tap tomorrow - quick news search on Bloomberg says something about Asian corporate earnings, an uptick in South Korea manufacturing confidence (watch that space in the future, maybe :bugeyed:), and, uh, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s anticipated 50 bps rate cut:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-30/asian-stocks-rise-as-commodity-prices-climb.html

    Australia’s great and all but I never hear mention of Australian rate cuts in the news.  So, slow news day tomorrow?

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 02:01 AM #25

    Ensign, a lot of bigger/institutional investors have yet to get in on that divvy.  That should count for something, no?

    Signature

    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 02:07 AM #26

    Mav - 30 April 2012 05:01 AM

    Ensign, a lot of bigger/institutional investors have yet to get in on that divvy.  That should count for something, no?

    Yes, but remember you can get the divvy by buying the stock at whatever price…....like 560 a week ago.

    The divvy will build another level of valuation flooring but it won’t stop macro selloffs or WTF events.

    Plus no divvy in May and June. If I, as an investor, want the dividend, wouldn’t I buy at as low a share price as possible? There will be a lot of staging going on for a while. I fear a May-June swoon but can’t really explain why…

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    AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before

         
  • Posted: 30 April 2012 02:10 AM #27

    Slightly off topic but why does this thread apparently get deleted and restarted periodically?

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 02:14 AM #28

    I forget you’re an emigre (pardon my, uh, lack of diacritical marks? LOL) from One Infinite Loop, much like myself (though I’ve basically been an AAPL investor/trader the whole time I’ve been in TMO forums).

    AAPL Intraday Updates is kept open for a week and then locked and archived.  I imagine DT just wanted to keep the thread from getting too full of posts over time.

    [ Edited: 30 April 2012 02:20 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 02:17 AM #29

    Red Shirted Ensign - 30 April 2012 05:07 AM
    Mav - 30 April 2012 05:01 AM

    Ensign, a lot of bigger/institutional investors have yet to get in on that divvy.  That should count for something, no?

    Yes, but remember you can get the divvy by buying the stock at whatever price…....like 560 a week ago.

    The divvy will build another level of valuation flooring but it won’t stop macro selloffs or WTF events.

    Plus no divvy in May and June. If I, as an investor, want the dividend, wouldn’t I buy at as low a share price as possible? There will be a lot of staging going on for a while. I fear a May-June swoon but can’t really explain why…

    Oh great.  Ensign’s shut down the warp engines and we’re just on impulse drive now…

    In fairness, I’m seriously considering “locking in” losses from shorter-term positions (wash sale rule implications, whatever, I’ll deal somehow) and punting the risk football a few months or more out.

    Hmm…Punting the Risk Football(tm).  Like the sound of it, though it might be one word too many.  Think I coined a Mav Original(tm) just then. :D

    [ Edited: 30 April 2012 02:19 AM by Mav ]

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
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    Posted: 30 April 2012 02:23 AM #30

    I sold $665 weekly calls. I don’t think we close the week any higher than that.

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    The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. — Steve Jobs