New iPhone coming soon?

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    Posted: 03 May 2012 08:44 PM

    Walmart is dropping the price of the iPhone.

    http://www.cultofmac.com/164933/walmart-drops-att-iphone-4-and-iphone-4s-prices-by-54-and-74/

         
  • Posted: 03 May 2012 09:00 PM #1

    I saw these two stories. Wasn’t sure if it’s an attempt to pump the stock or if it was real.

    http://i2mag.com/foxconn-were-hiring-18000-employees-for-iphone-5-june-release/

    http://iphone5newsblog.com/2012/05/02/ups-source-says-documents-reveal-something-big-is-about-to-happen-with-apple/

    It’s accepted by analyst (Munster, Dediu) that iPhone 5 is slated for q3 given lack of evidence of ramp up.

         
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    Posted: 03 May 2012 09:14 PM #2

    I think Mr. Cook has a couple new products to launch this fall for the holiday season therefore he would like to release the new iPhone this summer…....sheer speculation on my part.

         
  • Posted: 03 May 2012 09:15 PM #3

    zzen - 04 May 2012 12:00 AM

    I saw these two stories. Wasn’t sure if it’s an attempt to pump the stock or if it was real.

    http://i2mag.com/foxconn-were-hiring-18000-employees-for-iphone-5-june-release/

    http://iphone5newsblog.com/2012/05/02/ups-source-says-documents-reveal-something-big-is-about-to-happen-with-apple/

    It’s accepted by analyst (Munster, Dediu) that iPhone 5 is slated for q3 given lack of evidence of ramp up.

    If the new iPhone is being released in June production would already be under way, albeit maybe in its early stages. Many leaked parts would be out already and we’d be hearing scores of rumors every week about it. I just don’t think it’s at all possible. And I like the six month stagger between iPad and iPhone and I’m sure Apple does too.

         
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    Posted: 03 May 2012 09:30 PM #4

    What if…and it’s a big what if…..remember back to last fall when everybody said that the new iPhone 5 was a new form factor and the case suppliers had already distributed the cases knowing what was coming out of the supply lines….what if TC had slowly started ramping up the new iPhone since last fall.
    That would give him the last seven months…...TC is one slick operator if he could pull this off.

         
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    Posted: 03 May 2012 09:36 PM #5

    adamthompson32 - 04 May 2012 12:15 AM
    zzen - 04 May 2012 12:00 AM

    I saw these two stories. Wasn’t sure if it’s an attempt to pump the stock or if it was real.

    http://i2mag.com/foxconn-were-hiring-18000-employees-for-iphone-5-june-release/

    http://iphone5newsblog.com/2012/05/02/ups-source-says-documents-reveal-something-big-is-about-to-happen-with-apple/

    It’s accepted by analyst (Munster, Dediu) that iPhone 5 is slated for q3 given lack of evidence of ramp up.

    If the new iPhone is being released in June production would already be under way, albeit maybe in its early stages. Many leaked parts would be out already and we’d be hearing scores of rumors every week about it. I just don’t think it’s at all possible. And I like the six month stagger between iPad and iPhone and I’m sure Apple does too.

    Horace uses guidance on expenses to forecast date of release.  Maybe Apple got smart and figured out a way to hide upfront costs.  They did guide a much lower margin.

    Best case scenario would be August release.  We will get a better picture at WWDC.

         
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    Posted: 03 May 2012 09:44 PM #6

    Agree….WWDC would be the time to announce the new iPhone.
    Would like to get opinions on what I believe will be the two new products for the holiday season.
    I think they will come out with a mini iPad with anti glare glass for better reading.
    The second product could be an iPod nano watch made out of Liquidmetal so it could be waterproof.
    I think these two products would be listed under there iPod family and give the iPod new life.
    Great gifts for the holidays also.

         
  • Posted: 03 May 2012 09:47 PM #7

    adamthompson32 - 04 May 2012 12:15 AM

    If the new iPhone is being released in June production would already be under way, albeit maybe in its early stages. Many leaked parts would be out already and we’d be hearing scores of rumors every week about it. I just don’t think it’s at all possible. And I like the six month stagger between iPad and iPhone and I’m sure Apple does too.

    Note the original story is from a month ago:

    http://www.macotakara.jp/blog/index.php?ID=16205

    A June release seems early as I’m thinking q3 also. But may make sense if iTV is set for X-mas?

         
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  • Posted: 03 May 2012 10:54 PM #9

    IMO a June release is never going to happen. Seriously guys, can you imagine the massive scale that ths undertaking will take? Not only will factories have to be retooled, the software isnt even ready yet. June is only a month away and devs haven’t even gotten any seeds of the new OS.

    Don’t forget China just got their “new iphone” in January. If they follow same release schedule following a June US release that means they will get it in Aug/Sep. Less than a year since the last iteration, not going to happen. It will even be less than a year for the US to get a new iPhone. Unprecedented.

    I’m thinking it will be fall again. Apple is one mysterious company but also a very predictable one. October will be the biggest consumer electronic device intro/release in the history of mankind. It’ll be insane. I’m thinking new iPhone, new iPod touch, new iPad mini all ready for the holidays. Christmas 2012 will shatter all previous records for AAPL.

    As for stock performance, that’s a whole nutter story.

         
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    Posted: 03 May 2012 11:16 PM #10

    WWDC will be about iOS 6, Mountain Lion and probably new Macs. Just like last year, iOS will need some beta time before it’s ready for the new iPhone.

    A Nano watch using Bluetooth 4.0 would be great either in the summer or fall. I still don’t think a TV set makes sense for Apple without the agreements with the content providers & creators.

    As for the iPad mini, I still think a larger iPod touch makes more sense. ~5” Retina display running the iPhone UI. I don’t think Apple will take a step back and use a non-Retina display again. What Steve said still holds true: a tablet UI on a 7” display is not optimal. He did not say anything against a larger device still running the iPhone/iPod UI.

    I’d rather they sell a $299 iPod than a $299 iPad.

         
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    Posted: 03 May 2012 11:42 PM #11

    tradermac - 04 May 2012 01:54 AM

    June is only a month away and devs haven’t even gotten any seeds of the new OS.

    This one part might be not a big deal.  A seamless hardware upgrade is what Apple is known for.  The OS often stays the same.

    That said, the earliest is late July for an iPhone release.  Aug/Sept is far more likely.

         
  • Posted: 03 May 2012 11:42 PM #12

    With WWDC in June and provided there’s still a connection between new iOS release and new iPhone version which isn’t a given, the earliest launch date for the new iPhone would appear to be mid August.

    Apple has an interesting dilemma this year. Apple needs an LTE device for the US. Verizon sales folks are already pushing LTE phones. But LTE is not much of a factor in the rest of the world.
    See Samsung releasing the 3G Galaxy 3 first, then the LTE version in the US later.

    Apple could in theory push out the door the LTE iPhone (5) in the US early. De couple the launch of the new iOS from the new iPhone.  Dedicate volume to an earlier 4 carrier US launch, and then launch later in other markets. The opposite of the newest iPad launch.

         
  • Posted: 04 May 2012 12:16 AM #13

    omacvi - 04 May 2012 12:36 AM
    adamthompson32 - 04 May 2012 12:15 AM
    zzen - 04 May 2012 12:00 AM

    I saw these two stories. Wasn’t sure if it’s an attempt to pump the stock or if it was real.

    http://i2mag.com/foxconn-were-hiring-18000-employees-for-iphone-5-june-release/

    http://iphone5newsblog.com/2012/05/02/ups-source-says-documents-reveal-something-big-is-about-to-happen-with-apple/

    It’s accepted by analyst (Munster, Dediu) that iPhone 5 is slated for q3 given lack of evidence of ramp up.

    If the new iPhone is being released in June production would already be under way, albeit maybe in its early stages. Many leaked parts would be out already and we’d be hearing scores of rumors every week about it. I just don’t think it’s at all possible. And I like the six month stagger between iPad and iPhone and I’m sure Apple does too.

    Horace uses guidance on expenses to forecast date of release.  Maybe Apple got smart and figured out
    a way to hide upfront costs.  They did guide a much lower margin.

    Best case scenario would be August release.  We will get a better picture at WWDC.

    They guided GM% down 50 basis points sequentially. That’s as small a decline as they could have guided.

    On a different note, nobody expects summer iPhone anymore so there’s only upside if it’s a summer release - but it won’t be.

         
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    Posted: 04 May 2012 02:24 AM #14

    Thanks for the nuance on guidance.  I will double-check my crystal iMac spreadsheet.

         
  • Posted: 04 May 2012 12:11 PM #15

    In the past this could have been a sign of a new model coming, but I don’t think it means anything today.

    Why? Apple now has a track record of continuing to sell sell previous model iOS devices at a discount (iPad) or give away free (iPhone).

    Since they do this now, there is no need to blow out the old inventory. So a sale is just a sale. smile

    [ Edited: 04 May 2012 12:13 PM by David Nelson ]