Horace goes balance sheeting

  • Posted: 08 May 2012 10:42 PM

    If you haven’t seen this already, you should definitely watch it. Horace is a friggin’ genius. Why can’t we get him on CNBC debating Giant Moron or the other lowball knuckleheads on Wall Street?

    https://vimeo.com/user10962617/review/39537458/893ea52999

    The password is   h42Rtz8HJ

         
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    Posted: 09 May 2012 08:22 PM #1

    Great stuff, well worth the time if you want to understand some of the numbers hiding in the 10K which point toward Apple’s future growth.

         
  • Posted: 09 May 2012 08:46 PM #2

    So, speaking of geniuses… Anybody have an idea why Andy Zady seems to be expecting so little q/q growth this quarter? I would think with the iPad 2 price drop and the iPad 3 being available around the world and iPhone still relatively new on China’s big carrier, that it should be bigger. This would put him at $12.46 for the quarter, and I was thinking 14 or better…

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/09/how-apple-gets-to-2000/

         
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    Posted: 09 May 2012 09:02 PM #3

    adamthompson32 - 09 May 2012 01:42 AM

    If you haven’t seen this already, you should definitely watch it. Horace is a friggin’ genius. Why can’t we get him on CNBC debating Giant Moron or the other lowball knuckleheads on Wall Street?

    https://vimeo.com/user10962617/review/39537458/893ea52999

    The password is   h42Rtz8HJ

    Great video! My take aways- Apple is going to make a lot of OS devices this year and there were a lot of folically challenged men in the audience. smile

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    Posted: 09 May 2012 09:17 PM #4

    adamthompson32 - 09 May 2012 01:42 AM

    If you haven’t seen this already, you should definitely watch it. Horace is a friggin’ genius. Why can’t we get him on CNBC debating Giant Moron or the other lowball knuckleheads on Wall Street?

    https://vimeo.com/user10962617/review/39537458/893ea52999

    The password is   h42Rtz8HJ

    Horace IS a genius - and luckily for us he is getting quoted and picked up more often in the press in relation to Apple. he probably would be invited on CNBC TV etc but I dont see them interviewing European based analysts on the US CNBC feed very often.

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    Posted: 10 May 2012 12:20 AM #5

    greedyn00b - 09 May 2012 11:46 PM

    So, speaking of geniuses… Anybody have an idea why Andy Zady seems to be expecting so little q/q growth this quarter? I would think with the iPad 2 price drop and the iPad 3 being available around the world and iPhone still relatively new on China’s big carrier, that it should be bigger. This would put him at $12.46 for the quarter, and I was thinking 14 or better…

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/09/how-apple-gets-to-2000/

    Long term growth in consumer electronics requires both new products and new ideas so in general future growth falls to the general trend lone of the major forecasting services, because you don’t have the resources to forecast all this info on your own.  I would expect Apple’s rate of growth to slow with the maturing of the markets Apple is,serving, so you can look at the expectations of growth for Smartphone, Tablet, PC & Digital Media and using a weighted average based number to get an idea of future year growth, but most of these analysis assume no new ideas, and we know at least in the recent past that Apple is rolling out new ideas about every 3-4 yrs and most pundits expect a Apple TV within the next year.  What Horace is arguing with fact base analysis, is Apple is spending a ton of money on manufacturing without owning the factory.  This is a very unique aspect of Apple’s business. They have committed 8B to tooling and such to build Apple products.  The most likely target would be the LCD & SOC as memory is mostly a commodity and Apple already is a major player with prepay and large volume.  My guess as I’ve stated before is on Sharp’s IGZO tech with integrated touchscreen and then moving the tech across the product line.  I also suspect they are investing in Fab production &  With Foxconn final assembly.  back in January Foxconn again went on a hiring spree to double iPhone production at their new factory from 200k to 400K and we have the Brazillian facilities which eventually will included LCD production working through the process.

         
  • Posted: 10 May 2012 12:27 AM #6

    Watched the presentation this evening.

    Recommend it.

         
  • Posted: 10 May 2012 12:53 AM #7

    greedyn00b - 09 May 2012 11:46 PM

    So, speaking of geniuses… Anybody have an idea why Andy Zady seems to be expecting so little q/q growth this quarter? I would think with the iPad 2 price drop and the iPad 3 being available around the world and iPhone still relatively new on China’s big carrier, that it should be bigger. This would put him at $12.46 for the quarter, and I was thinking 14 or better…

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/09/how-apple-gets-to-2000/

    $12.46 is a bit conservative IMO, and “14 or better” is over the top.  Andy is expecting low growth because Apple guided low growth.

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    Posted: 10 May 2012 12:53 AM #8

    I may be getting a bit pie-in-the-sky here, but anyone doubting where apples future growth is going to come from is seriously underestimating not just Apple, but the entire proven history of consumer technology.

    Siri in particular has the potential to revolutionise the customer service/call centre industry, and also create a whole new industry of consumer robotics. If you think people spend a lot of there discretionary income on their phones/tablets, just wait until Apple releases devices that can actually respond to natural language and perfrom physical tasks.

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    Posted: 10 May 2012 02:26 AM #9

    Great video.  Finished it today. Horace is a true genius who is only getting warmed up on discovering the future of Apple growth via public documents and historical references.

    One important note is that he talked about getting his data and conclusions from the 10-k yearly statement.

    The only other person I know who reads that boring long document like the Bible is our very own Gregg Thurman.smile

    Tommo also made many references to it in the past.

    I sure miss his insight.

         
  • Posted: 10 May 2012 02:32 AM #10

    Excellent analysis.  Heavenly.  Thank you Horace.

         
  • Posted: 10 May 2012 11:54 AM #11

    omacvi - 10 May 2012 05:26 AM

    Great video.  Finished it today. Horace is a true genius who is only getting warmed up on discovering the future of Apple growth via public documents and historical references.

    One important note is that he talked about getting his data and conclusions from the 10-k yearly statement.

    The only other person I know who reads that boring long document like the Bible is our very own Gregg Thurman.smile

    [...]

    DT?  Daniel?

         
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    Posted: 10 May 2012 11:58 AM #12

    capablanca - 10 May 2012 02:54 PM
    omacvi - 10 May 2012 05:26 AM

    Great video.  Finished it today. Horace is a true genius who is only getting warmed up on discovering the future of Apple growth via public documents and historical references.

    One important note is that he talked about getting his data and conclusions from the 10-k yearly statement.

    The only other person I know who reads that boring long document like the Bible is our very own Gregg Thurman.smile

    [...]

    DT?  Daniel?

    You are correct.  The two of them are also religious about studying the 10-K report.  Their contributions can not be ignored.  DT I think is reponsible for most of my bullishness and risk taking in this stock.smile

    Daniel is a real wizard with statistical analysis.  See the other thread.

         
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    Posted: 10 May 2012 05:21 PM #13

    Fantastic insights….

    ... but it TRULY MATTERS NOT AT ALL.

    Seriously.

    How Apple the company does, has close to ZERO effect on Apple the stock.

    It is now totally, completely, 100% owned by the EVIL MANIPULATORS.

    It is as if the stock belongs to a utility company nowadays. Results matter not one whit, sales and profits are inconsequential, and what counts, is the FUD of the week so the Option Writers and MM’s can steal another round from Main Street investors.

    Unless and until they demote Oppie the Dopie, and his gamesmanship, and split the darned stock 10 for 1, it will remain as it is, a toy for the tribe to toy and tinker with to the detriment of anyone that still is under the illusion that you can INVEST in stocks anymore.

    I’ve come to believe that those days are forever gone.

    All you can hope for now, is brief respites of semi-sanity, between bouts of paid for manipulation, and greedy government trolls, and media whoring for eyeballs and hits.

    [ Edited: 10 May 2012 05:54 PM by TanToday ]

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    Posted: 10 May 2012 07:26 PM #14

    TanToday - 10 May 2012 08:21 PM

    Fantastic insights….

    ... but it TRULY MATTERS NOT AT ALL.

    Seriously.

    How Apple the company does, has close to ZERO effect on Apple the stock.

    It is now totally, completely, 100% owned by the EVIL MANIPULATORS.

    It is as if the stock belongs to a utility company nowadays. Results matter not one whit, sales and profits are inconsequential, and what counts, is the FUD of the week so the Option Writers and MM’s can steal another round from Main Street investors.

    Unless and until they demote Oppie the Dopie, and his gamesmanship, and split the darned stock 10 for 1, it will remain as it is, a toy for the tribe to toy and tinker with to the detriment of anyone that still is under the illusion that you can INVEST in stocks anymore.

    I’ve come to believe that those days are forever gone.

    All you can hope for now, is brief respites of semi-sanity, between bouts of paid for manipulation, and greedy government trolls, and media whoring for eyeballs and hits.

    Don’t lose faith Bud - just look at the share price since the start of this year.

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  • Posted: 10 May 2012 07:53 PM #15

    Gregg Thurman - 10 May 2012 03:53 AM
    greedyn00b - 09 May 2012 11:46 PM

    So, speaking of geniuses… Anybody have an idea why Andy Zady seems to be expecting so little q/q growth this quarter? I would think with the iPad 2 price drop and the iPad 3 being available around the world and iPhone still relatively new on China’s big carrier, that it should be bigger. This would put him at $12.46 for the quarter, and I was thinking 14 or better…

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/09/how-apple-gets-to-2000/

    $12.46 is a bit conservative IMO, and “14 or better” is over the top.  Andy is expecting low growth because Apple guided low growth.

    Well Apple made it perfectly clear that iPhone sales are going to contract this quarter.  They also made it clear that iPad sales will do very well.  I’m expecting 32 million iPhones (tentatively) and 20 million iPads on the quarter. That leads to my EPS expectation.