Elliott Wave Analysis

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    Posted: 27 January 2012 04:36 AM

    For those interested in using EWT for trading, EWI has a free eBook for download.  You may need to create an account.

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    Posted: 28 January 2012 11:47 PM #1

    Predicting Price Targets with fibonacci.  Because EW is trademarked by EWI (Bob Prechter), EW can’t be used for commercial interest, it is now creatively referred to as Fibonacci analysis/patterns.

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    Posted: 08 February 2012 11:15 PM #2

    Below is the EW picture (reposted).  Your guess is as good as mine as to when V.5.v would be completed.  Is close for sure.  Is $480-$483, completion of V.5.v or V.5.i or V.5.i.(5).(i)?  Again, your guess is as good as mine.  Guess correctly, win BIG.  Guess wrongly, either trapped in a big bad bear or miss the big bull.  Given current strong Apple fundamentals, I would bet is V.5.i but even if it is V.5.i ...
    23.5% retracement = $385, within price zone of V.5.iv
    38.2% retracement = $326, within price zone of V.5.iii.(4)
    50.0% retracement = $279, within price zone of V.5.iii.(2)
    61.8% retracement = $231, within price zone of V.5.ii

    What about V.5.i.(5).(i)?  So lucky meh?

    .

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    Posted: 08 February 2012 11:30 PM #3

    Mace - 09 February 2012 03:15 AM

    Below is the EW picture (reposted).  Your guess is as good as mine as to when V.5.v would be completed.  Is close for sure.  Is $480-$483, completion of V.5.v or V.5.i or V.5.i.(5).(i)?

    Mace, the subcategories hurt my head.  Tell me, does this boil down to… are we in a “5” (end phase) or a new “1” (beginning phase) ?  If yes, I get it.  If no, I’m going to need Advil… wink

         
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    Posted: 08 February 2012 11:51 PM #4

    lovemyipad - 09 February 2012 03:30 AM
    Mace - 09 February 2012 03:15 AM

    Below is the EW picture (reposted).  Your guess is as good as mine as to when V.5.v would be completed.  Is close for sure.  Is $480-$483, completion of V.5.v or V.5.i or V.5.i.(5).(i)?

    Mace, the subcategories hurt my head.  Tell me, does this boil down to… are we in a “5” (end phase) or a new “1” (beginning phase) ?  If yes, I get it.  If no, I’m going to need Advil… wink

    Those represent different degrees or hierarchy if that is easier to understand.

    End of wave five is always end of a higher degree wave one or wave three or wave five, you know that right?  Put it another way, any wave can be subdivided into five (or three) waves right?

    Hierarchy of degree in descending order:
    Cycle degree:  I, II, III, IV, V
    Primary degree:  1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    Intermediate degree: i, ii, iii, iv, v
    Minor degree: (1), (2), (3), (4), (5)

    V.5.i means in Intermediate degree wave i of Primary degree wave 5 of Cycle degree wave V.

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  • Posted: 09 February 2012 12:10 AM #5

    It makes my head hurt, and I still remember Prechter’s horribly wrong call on gold back in the day.

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2012 01:06 PM #6

    Mace, how do you see today’s price action fitting into wave forecast? Thx.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2012 01:33 PM #7

    woodward - 09 February 2012 05:06 PM

    Mace, how do you see today’s price action fitting into wave forecast? Thx.

    Looking for hole to hide like an Ostrich :oops:.

    Please refer to post #103, $483 was broken through without retracement, next two targets are: $523.80 and $557.12.

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    Posted: 09 February 2012 01:37 PM #8

    The breakout ends the EW diwnwave danger?

    But isn’t there some EW theorist who just saw the beginning of a half-off sale or something?  Y’know, that one guy who doesn’t look so correct right now.  Can’t remember his name.

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    Posted: 11 February 2012 11:00 PM #9

    Mace - 09 February 2012 03:51 AM

    Those represent different degrees or hierarchy if that is easier to understand.

    End of wave five is always end of a higher degree wave one or wave three or wave five, you know that right?  Put it another way, any wave can be subdivided into five (or three) waves right?

    Hierarchy of degree in descending order:
    Cycle degree:  I, II, III, IV, V
    Primary degree:  1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    Intermediate degree: i, ii, iii, iv, v
    Minor degree: (1), (2), (3), (4), (5)

    V.5.i means in Intermediate degree wave i of Primary degree wave 5 of Cycle degree wave V.

    Thanks, Mace!  Okay, I have now had some wine (in lieu of Advil), so let’s see if I can make any progress here…

    One question…I think this is the part that’s currently confusing me…  Are the degree labels in post #103 and #113 consistent?

    I do “visually” get the fractal stuff—every impulse wave (1,3,5) has 5 subdivisions and every retrace (2,4) has 3 subdivisions, right?

         
  • Posted: 11 February 2012 11:07 PM #10

    Mace - 27 January 2012 03:38 AM
    alice - 27 January 2012 03:16 AM

    Thank you, Mace! 

    Since V.5.v = $419.55 to ..., the low point is $419.55 for this wave for pullbacks.  Is this correct?  So, it is possible to see $419 again before this wave is completed.

    Upon completion of V.5.v, min retracement is to V.4 ($363.32), most common is to V.2 ($235) and worse case is to IV ($$78.20).  I’m guessing that $480s is the completion of V.5.i.(5) rather than V.5.v and retracement is likely to $420, filled the gap.

    Please refer to this chart, notice the rounding top since 2010?  If continue, this year gain would be less than 26% i.e. end the year lower than $510.

    Mace, is the rounding top since 2010-end the year lower than $510 still in play?  Thanks.

         
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    Posted: 12 February 2012 02:01 AM #11

    Mace, I vote for being in a nice i of some sort versus v. smile

    Or is that like one of Cinderella’s ugly stepsisters trying to jam her foot into the glass slipper? :cry:

    [ Edited: 12 February 2012 02:08 AM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 12 February 2012 03:15 AM #12

    lovemyipad - 12 February 2012 03:00 AM

    One question…I think this is the part that’s currently confusing me…  Are the degree labels in post #103 and #113 consistent?

    Yes.

    Continuing from post #103,

    V.5.v.(1) = $419.55 to $454.45
    V.5.v.(2) = $454.45 to $443.14
    V.5.v.(3).(i) = $443.14 to $458.99, length of (i) = $15.85
    V.5.v.(3).(ii) = $458.99 to $453.98, 31.6% ret of (i)
    V.5.v.(3).(iii) = $453.98 to ...  ; This is a powerful rally, Elliotticians call it 3 of 3.
    (iii) = (i), = $469.83
    (iii) = 1.618 of (i), = $479.63
    (iii) = 2.618 of (i), = $495.48
    (iii) = 3.618 of (i), = $511.33
    ... (iii) can go up to 7 of (i), = $564.93

    The past two weeks, I spent so much time looking at the 1-min and 5-min charts, I miss the forest.

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    Posted: 12 February 2012 03:52 AM #13

    Holy sh*t!  In my last post, I was actually going to ask: is there any way we could be in an iii of some sort because this feels like a 3.  But that’s because I thought 3 was the longest…then I went back and looked at rules, and it says only that 3 can’t be the shortest.  At that point, my head hurt.

    Okay, I like the iii thing…

    Now, within our super-duper powerful V.5.v.(3).(iii), um, there’s going to be another 5 fractals.  So will you pleeeeeease let me dumb this down to my level and drop the V.5.v.(3).(iii) notation for just a tiny bit and just go with the 1,2,3,4,5 that starts with the impulse from 453.98???

    [ Edited: 12 February 2012 03:59 AM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 13 February 2012 08:34 PM #14

    Mace - 09 February 2012 05:33 PM
    woodward - 09 February 2012 05:06 PM

    Mace, how do you see today’s price action fitting into wave forecast? Thx.

    Looking for hole to hide like an Ostrich :oops:.

    Please refer to post #103, $483 was broken through without retracement, next two targets are: $523.80 and $557.12.

    Mace, Fidelity’s EW thingy showing 519 target, and um, I take it below quote (also from Fidelity’s web site) explains the ostrich impulse… :(

    Trading Considerations

    Everybody is bullish in wave 5 as all the data suggests that the good times are here to stay and trend will continue. As an example look back at early 1999 and late 2000 when the naysayers warned of impending doom in the Nasdaq. Note that at the end of some five leg advances, such as we had at the end of Nasdaq mania/bubble, final tops may end up with high volume as a blow off.

         
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    Posted: 13 February 2012 09:22 PM #15

    lovemyipad - 14 February 2012 12:34 AM
    Mace - 09 February 2012 05:33 PM
    woodward - 09 February 2012 05:06 PM

    Mace, how do you see today’s price action fitting into wave forecast? Thx.

    Looking for hole to hide like an Ostrich :oops:.

    Please refer to post #103, $483 was broken through without retracement, next two targets are: $523.80 and $557.12.

    Mace, Fidelity’s EW thingy showing 519 target, and um, I take it below quote (also from Fidelity’s web site) explains the ostrich impulse… :(

    Trading Considerations

    Everybody is bullish in wave 5 as all the data suggests that the good times are here to stay and trend will continue. As an example look back at early 1999 and late 2000 when the naysayers warned of impending doom in the Nasdaq. Note that at the end of some five leg advances, such as we had at the end of Nasdaq mania/bubble, final tops may end up with high volume as a blow off.

    That is the correct psychology.  However, we don’t know how high it would go.  Extended wave can be up to 7 times of length of wave one.  For trading purposes, Elliotticians play it safe and assume 1.618 of length of wave one.  There is no point to be the messager of bad news because you don’t know when wave five ends, two scenarios:

    a.  You said and wave five continues, everybody laughs at your silly forecasts.
    b.  You said and wave five completes, share price tumbles, they curses you for jinxing the run.

    Best course of action.  Keep quiet and prepares yourself for the inevitable.

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