Elliott Wave Analysis

  • Posted: 14 February 2012 06:42 PM #16

    Mace - 12 February 2012 07:15 AM
    lovemyipad - 12 February 2012 03:00 AM

    One question…I think this is the part that’s currently confusing me…  Are the degree labels in post #103 and #113 consistent?

    Yes.

    Continuing from post #103,

    V.5.v.(1) = $419.55 to $454.45
    V.5.v.(2) = $454.45 to $443.14
    V.5.v.(3).(i) = $443.14 to $458.99, length of (i) = $15.85
    V.5.v.(3).(ii) = $458.99 to $453.98, 31.6% ret of (i)
    V.5.v.(3).(iii) = $453.98 to ...  ; This is a powerful rally, Elliotticians call it 3 of 3.
    (iii) = (i), = $469.83
    (iii) = 1.618 of (i), = $479.63
    (iii) = 2.618 of (i), = $495.48
    (iii) = 3.618 of (i), = $511.33
    ... (iii) can go up to 7 of (i), = $564.93

    The past two weeks, I spent so much time looking at the 1-min and 5-min charts, I miss the forest.

    There’s 511.33 AH.

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2012 11:41 PM #17

    What does all this mean. Is AAPL going up or down?

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2012 11:43 PM #18

    Nagrani - 15 February 2012 03:41 AM

    What does all this mean. Is AAPL going up or down?

    Up first. smile

         
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    Posted: 14 February 2012 11:48 PM #19

    woodward - 14 February 2012 10:42 PM
    Mace - 12 February 2012 07:15 AM

    V.5.v.(3).(iii) = $453.98 to ...  ; This is a powerful rally, Elliotticians call it 3 of 3.
    (iii) = (i), = $469.83
    (iii) = 1.618 of (i), = $479.63
    (iii) = 2.618 of (i), = $495.48
    (iii) = 3.618 of (i), = $511.33
    ... (iii) can go up to 7 of (i), = $564.93

    The past two weeks, I spent so much time looking at the 1-min and 5-min charts, I miss the forest.

    There’s 511.33 AH.

    On the nose!!

    4.618
    5.618
    6.618
    7.618 ~ 565

         
  • Posted: 15 February 2012 02:07 PM #20

    Mace - 12 February 2012 07:15 AM
    lovemyipad - 12 February 2012 03:00 AM

    One question…I think this is the part that’s currently confusing me…  Are the degree labels in post #103 and #113 consistent?

    Yes.

    Continuing from post #103,

    V.5.v.(1) = $419.55 to $454.45
    V.5.v.(2) = $454.45 to $443.14
    V.5.v.(3).(i) = $443.14 to $458.99, length of (i) = $15.85
    V.5.v.(3).(ii) = $458.99 to $453.98, 31.6% ret of (i)
    V.5.v.(3).(iii) = $453.98 to ...  ; This is a powerful rally, Elliotticians call it 3 of 3.
    (iii) = (i), = $469.83
    (iii) = 1.618 of (i), = $479.63
    (iii) = 2.618 of (i), = $495.48
    (iii) = 3.618 of (i), = $511.33
    ... (iii) can go up to 7 of (i), = $564.93

    The past two weeks, I spent so much time looking at the 1-min and 5-min charts, I miss the forest.

    Mace, is it fair to say 526ish was 4.618?  If so, how much of a pullback could transpire?

         
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    Posted: 15 February 2012 02:42 PM #21

    woodward - 15 February 2012 06:07 PM
    Mace - 12 February 2012 07:15 AM
    lovemyipad - 12 February 2012 03:00 AM

    One question…I think this is the part that’s currently confusing me…  Are the degree labels in post #103 and #113 consistent?

    Yes.

    Continuing from post #103,

    V.5.v.(1) = $419.55 to $454.45
    V.5.v.(2) = $454.45 to $443.14
    V.5.v.(3).(i) = $443.14 to $458.99, length of (i) = $15.85
    V.5.v.(3).(ii) = $458.99 to $453.98, 31.6% ret of (i)
    V.5.v.(3).(iii) = $453.98 to ...  ; This is a powerful rally, Elliotticians call it 3 of 3.
    (iii) = (i), = $469.83
    (iii) = 1.618 of (i), = $479.63
    (iii) = 2.618 of (i), = $495.48
    (iii) = 3.618 of (i), = $511.33
    ... (iii) can go up to 7 of (i), = $564.93

    The past two weeks, I spent so much time looking at the 1-min and 5-min charts, I miss the forest.

    Mace, is it fair to say 526ish was 4.618?  If so, how much of a pullback could transpire?

    Frankly, might be in V.5.v.(5) already.  Anyhoo, if still in V.5.v.(3).(iii), then ...
    (iii) = 4.618 of (i), = $527.18 (today’s HoD is $526.29, pretty close)
    (iii) = 5.618 of (i), = $543.00 (In 2007, length of wave III is about 5.618 of length of wave I)
    (iii) = 6.618 of (i), = $558.88

    Edit:  Forgot about the second part of the question.  If $526.29 is completion of (iii), then (iv) could be:
    14.6% retracement, = $515.73
    23.6% retracement, = $509.22
    38.2% retracement, = $498.67
    50.0% retracement, = $490.14

    [ Edited: 15 February 2012 03:21 PM by Mace ]

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    Posted: 15 February 2012 06:34 PM #22

    Closed around 38.2% retracement.

         
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    Posted: 15 February 2012 06:48 PM #23

    Mace - 26 January 2012 09:18 PM

    Intermediate degree waves of Primary degree wave V.5
    ————————————————————————————
    V.5.i   = $363.32 to $396.41, length = $33.09
    V.5.ii = $396.41 to $377.68
    V.5.iii = $377.68 to $427.75, length = $50.07
    V.5.iv = $427.75 to $419.55
    V.5.v = $419.55 to:
    $440.00, length of wave v = 0.618 of length of wave i
    $452.64, length of wave v = length of wave i
    $473.09, length of wave v = 1.618 of length of wave i
    $459.37, length of wave v = 0.618 of length of wave i + iii
    $483.98, length of wave v = 1.000 of length of wave i + iii )  Extended fifth wave impulse
    $523.80, length of wave v = 1.618 of length of wave i + iii )  As above
    Labeling could be one degree too high i.e. V.5.i could be V.5.i.(1) and so on.

    WAG:  The post-earning gap would be filled after hitting $480s.  If earlier, scary.

    Soooo…under one scenario (V.5.v), impulse wave completed today…and possibly, today’s retrace is A of A,B,C?

         
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    Posted: 15 February 2012 07:40 PM #24

    lovemyipad - 15 February 2012 10:48 PM
    Mace - 26 January 2012 09:18 PM

    Intermediate degree waves of Primary degree wave V.5
    ————————————————————————————
    V.5.i   = $363.32 to $396.41, length = $33.09
    V.5.ii = $396.41 to $377.68
    V.5.iii = $377.68 to $427.75, length = $50.07
    V.5.iv = $427.75 to $419.55
    V.5.v = $419.55 to:
    $440.00, length of wave v = 0.618 of length of wave i
    $452.64, length of wave v = length of wave i
    $473.09, length of wave v = 1.618 of length of wave i
    $459.37, length of wave v = 0.618 of length of wave i + iii
    $483.98, length of wave v = 1.000 of length of wave i + iii )  Extended fifth wave impulse
    $523.80, length of wave v = 1.618 of length of wave i + iii )  As above
    Labeling could be one degree too high i.e. V.5.i could be V.5.i.(1) and so on.

    WAG:  The post-earning gap would be filled after hitting $480s.  If earlier, scary.

    Soooo…under one scenario (V.5.v), impulse wave completed today…and possibly, today’s retrace is A of A,B,C?

    Definitely can’t be wave C.  Could be A or a of A.

    Btw, given strong fundamentals of AAPL, I incline to bet is completion of V.5.i, love to wear bullish tinted glass.  So expect retracement to $450-$460 (most likely).  Second most likely is to fill the earning gap up.  Lower than $420, I’m a little worried, V.5.v becomes very possible.  Lower than $363, I’ll cry.

    [ Edited: 15 February 2012 07:51 PM by Mace ]

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    Posted: 15 February 2012 08:15 PM #25

    Mace - 15 February 2012 11:40 PM

    Definitely can’t be wave C.  Could be A or a of A.

    Btw, given strong fundamentals of AAPL, I incline to bet is completion of V.5.i, love to wear bullish tinted glass.  So expect retracement to $450-$460 (most likely).  Second most likely is to fill the earning gap up.  Lower than $420, I’m a little worried, V.5.v becomes very possible.  Lower than $363, I’ll cry.

    Yes, I was thinking “A” of an upcoming A,B,C retrace wave.

    But like I said before, I vote for a nice “i.”  Let’s go with that until proven otherwise. :D V.5.i.  Next: V.5.ii in the A,B,C retrace pattern.

    SMA-20 on the daily is around 460.

     

    EDIT:

    V.5.i = $363.32 to $526.29, length = $162.97
    V.5.ii = $526.29 to:

    [ Edited: 15 February 2012 08:23 PM by lovemyipad ]      
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    Posted: 15 February 2012 08:30 PM #26

    lovemyipad - 16 February 2012 12:15 AM

    V.5.i = $363.32 to $526.29, length = $162.97
    V.5.ii = $526.29 to:

    You can create a spreadsheet for computing fib ratio.  Possible V.5.ii are:

    23.6% retracement = $487.83
    38.2% retracement = $464.04
    50.0% retracement = $444.81
    61.8% retracement = $425.57 (filled the earning gap up)
    76.4% retracement = $401.78

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    Posted: 15 February 2012 08:41 PM #27

    Good idea!  Made spreadsheet—thanks! smile

         
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    Posted: 15 February 2012 09:30 PM #28

    MACE!!!  Guess what?!?!?!  Oh, please don’t tell me you already posted this earlier :-x :D, because I was just playing with my handy-dandy new spreadsheet, and lookie!!!!!!

    Taking the impulse from 419.55 to 496.75…the 138.2% projection = 526.24

    Fib is magic!!!!!!!!!!!!

         
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    Posted: 16 February 2012 12:09 AM #29

    lovemyipad - 16 February 2012 01:30 AM

    MACE!!!  Guess what?!?!?!  Oh, please don’t tell me you already posted this earlier :-x :D, because I was just playing with my handy-dandy new spreadsheet, and lookie!!!!!!

    Taking the impulse from 419.55 to 496.75…the 138.2% projection = 526.24

    Fib is magic!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I didn’t do that because I look at EW differently.  Because prices are related by fib, many ways to look at them e.g. channels, fib relationships between waves, etc.  We can passively relate prices or actively project prices.  So more eyes would discover more “tradable” setups.

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    Posted: 16 February 2012 10:02 PM #30

    Mace - 16 February 2012 12:30 AM
    lovemyipad - 16 February 2012 12:15 AM

    V.5.i = $363.32 to $526.29, length = $162.97
    V.5.ii = $526.29 to:

    You can create a spreadsheet for computing fib ratio.  Possible V.5.ii are:

    23.6% retracement = $487.83

    A= 486.63… smile  Now impulse B underway…

    Geez, Mace, you might have been off by 1.20… This EW stuff is clearly crap.  tongue laugh

     

    Earlier post:
    Retrace waves

    [ Edited: 16 February 2012 10:12 PM by lovemyipad ]