Elliott Wave Analysis

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    Posted: 10 May 2012 04:10 AM #151

    Primary degree waves of Cycle degree wave V
    ???????????????????????-
    V.1=$78.20 to $272.00, length = $193.80
    V.2=$272.00 to $199.25
    V.3=$199.25 to $404.50, length = $205.25
    V.4=$404.50 to $354.24
    V.5=$354.24 to:
    $555.89, length of wave 5 = 0.618 of length of wave 1 + 3
    $680.54, length of wave 5 = 1.000 of length of wave 1 + 3 )  Extended fifth wave impulse
    $882.19, length of wave 5 = 1.618 of length of wave 1 + 3 )  As above

    Intermediate degree waves of Primary degree wave V.5
    ????????????????????????????
    V.5.i ? = $354.24 to $426.70, length = $72.46
    V.5.ii =  $426.70 to $363.32?
    V.5.iii = $363.32 to $644.00, length = $280.68
    V.5.iv = $644.00 to:
    $603, 14.6%
    $578, 23.6%
    $537, 38.2%
    $503, 50.0%
    $470, 61.8%

    Daily chart showing relevant supports and resistances.

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  • Posted: 14 May 2012 08:52 PM #152

    Mace - 10 May 2012 07:10 AM

    Primary degree waves of Cycle degree wave V
    ???????????????????????-
    V.1=$78.20 to $272.00, length = $193.80
    V.2=$272.00 to $199.25
    V.3=$199.25 to $404.50, length = $205.25
    V.4=$404.50 to $354.24
    V.5=$354.24 to:
    $555.89, length of wave 5 = 0.618 of length of wave 1 + 3
    $680.54, length of wave 5 = 1.000 of length of wave 1 + 3 )  Extended fifth wave impulse
    $882.19, length of wave 5 = 1.618 of length of wave 1 + 3 )  As above

    Intermediate degree waves of Primary degree wave V.5
    ????????????????????????????
    V.5.i ? = $354.24 to $426.70, length = $72.46
    V.5.ii =  $426.70 to $363.32?
    V.5.iii = $363.32 to $644.00, length = $280.68
    V.5.iv = $644.00 to:
    $603, 14.6%
    $578, 23.6%
    $537, 38.2%
    $503, 50.0%
    $470, 61.8%

    Daily chart showing relevant supports and resistances.

    AAPL is below retracement level $578, 23.6%.  Next stop is $537, 38.2%.  I hope that will be the bottom.

         
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    Posted: 15 May 2012 02:04 AM #153

    alice - 14 May 2012 11:52 PM

    AAPL is below retracement level $578, 23.6%.  Next stop is $537, 38.2%.  I hope that will be the bottom.

    Very likely but even if it is reached over the next few days or next week, it doesn’t mean iv is completed and v has started.  The pattern could be combo i.e. $537 could be just wave W follow by wave X (up) and then final wave Y (down) before v would begin.  So, trading options would be tricky even if $537 is the low.  In any case, I bought some vertical (Jan $570/$600).

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  • Posted: 15 May 2012 02:30 AM #154

    Mace - 15 May 2012 05:04 AM
    alice - 14 May 2012 11:52 PM

    AAPL is below retracement level $578, 23.6%.  Next stop is $537, 38.2%.  I hope that will be the bottom.

    Very likely but even if it is reached over the next few days or next week, it doesn’t mean iv is completed and v has started.  The pattern could be combo i.e. $537 could be just wave W follow by wave X (up) and then final wave Y (down) before v would begin.  So, trading options would be tricky even if $537 is the low.  In any case, I bought some vertical (Jan $570/$600).

    Is it Jan13 or Jan14?  Thanks.

         
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    Posted: 15 May 2012 02:36 AM #155

    alice - 15 May 2012 05:30 AM
    Mace - 15 May 2012 05:04 AM
    alice - 14 May 2012 11:52 PM

    AAPL is below retracement level $578, 23.6%.  Next stop is $537, 38.2%.  I hope that will be the bottom.

    Very likely but even if it is reached over the next few days or next week, it doesn’t mean iv is completed and v has started.  The pattern could be combo i.e. $537 could be just wave W follow by wave X (up) and then final wave Y (down) before v would begin.  So, trading options would be tricky even if $537 is the low.  In any case, I bought some vertical (Jan $570/$600).

    Is it Jan13 or Jan14?  Thanks.

    Default for Jan is Jan 13.  If Jan 14, I would say Jan 14 or LEAPS.

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  • Posted: 17 May 2012 12:27 PM #156

    Mace - 15 May 2012 05:04 AM
    alice - 14 May 2012 11:52 PM

    AAPL is below retracement level $578, 23.6%.  Next stop is $537, 38.2%.  I hope that will be the bottom.

    Very likely but even if it is reached over the next few days or next week, it doesn’t mean iv is completed and v has started.  The pattern could be combo i.e. $537 could be just wave W follow by wave X (up) and then final wave Y (down) before v would begin.  So, trading options would be tricky even if $537 is the low.  In any case, I bought some vertical (Jan $570/$600).

    $537 is here.  I hope we don’t see the next retracement level of $503.

         
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    Posted: 17 May 2012 02:12 PM #157

    alice - 17 May 2012 03:27 PM
    Mace - 15 May 2012 05:04 AM

    ... So, trading options would be tricky even if $537 is the low.  In any case, I bought some vertical (Jan $570/$600).

    $537 is here.  I hope we don’t see the next retracement level of $503.

    No idea whether it would or not.  Stamped it in your brain: Wave 5 retraces at least to its internal wave ii, most of the time till origin.  Is a reason why I’m so sure AAPL would decline to $548-$516 zone when it peaked at $644 (hope you’ve noticed the distribution, if not, read up on topping pattern).  Next wave i-ii pattern is $526-$486, AAPL might be retracing its higher degree wave 5 - one can’t be sure - just monitor.

    Bought some verticals (LEAPS14 $600/$700).  Scaling all the way to $486.  No choice because don’t know the exact price it would bottom.  No chasing if it rebounces because don’t know whether it is wave X or not.  Hard to read waves, even harder to make a trading plan out of it.

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    Posted: 17 May 2012 02:54 PM #158

    Mace - 17 May 2012 05:12 PM

    ...Is a reason why I’m so sure AAPL would decline to $548-$516 zone when it peaked at $644 (hope you’ve noticed the distribution, if not, read up on topping pattern).  ...

    Yep, you called it.  AGAIN! wink

    Daily SMA-100 = 527.25.  Daily EMA-100 = 533.97.

         
  • Posted: 17 May 2012 06:26 PM #159

    Mace - 17 May 2012 05:12 PM
    alice - 17 May 2012 03:27 PM
    Mace - 15 May 2012 05:04 AM

    ... So, trading options would be tricky even if $537 is the low.  In any case, I bought some vertical (Jan $570/$600).

    $537 is here.  I hope we don’t see the next retracement level of $503.

    No idea whether it would or not.  Stamped it in your brain: Wave 5 retraces at least to its internal wave ii, most of the time till origin.  Is a reason why I’m so sure AAPL would decline to $548-$516 zone when it peaked at $644 (hope you’ve noticed the distribution, if not, read up on topping pattern).  Next wave i-ii pattern is $526-$486, AAPL might be retracing its higher degree wave 5 - one can’t be sure - just monitor.

    Bought some verticals (LEAPS14 $600/$700).  Scaling all the way to $486.  No choice because don’t know the exact price it would bottom.  No chasing if it rebounces because don’t know whether it is wave X or not.  Hard to read waves, even harder to make a trading plan out of it.

    Shouldn’t aapl get a retracement upward soon?  Aapl has been pretty down since earnings almost a month ago.  This downtrend is making me ill.

         
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    Posted: 19 May 2012 06:34 PM #160

    Mace - 17 May 2012 05:12 PM

    ...Stamped it in your brain: Wave 5 retraces at least to its internal wave ii, most of the time till origin.  Is a reason why I’m so sure AAPL would decline to $548-$516 zone when it peaked at $644 (hope you’ve noticed the distribution, if not, read up on topping pattern).  Next wave i-ii pattern is $526-$486, AAPL might be retracing its higher degree wave 5 - one can’t be sure - just monitor.
    ...

    Mace, Mace, Mace!

    Wave i =  $354.24 to $426.70
    Wave ii =  $426.70 to $363.32
    Wave iii = $363.32 to $644.00
    Wave iv =  $644.00 to ($528.66 to $516.22), approx. 38.2% length of iii *

    Wave iv.a = $644.00 to $555.00, length = 89.00
    Wave iv.b = $555.00 to $618.00, length = 63.00
    Wave iv.c = $618.00 to $528.66, length = 89.34 *

    * No confirmation iv.c is complete—could still descend to $516.22—BUT wouldn’t the numbers be cool if we WERE done…then length of a = length of c, all nice and measured-move-like. smile

    Also, “Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 61.8% of length of wave 3, norm is 38.2%.”  We’re in that ballpark.

    [ Edited: 19 May 2012 06:49 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Posted: 19 May 2012 09:16 PM #161

    Let’s assume 516.22 for sh*ts and giggles….which wave comes next?

    [ Edited: 19 May 2012 11:06 PM by lovemyipad ]

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    Posted: 19 May 2012 09:50 PM #162

    What are your readings? smile

    [ Edited: 19 May 2012 11:05 PM by lovemyipad ]

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    Posted: 19 May 2012 10:16 PM #163

    Phoebes,

    See chart below.  We are either in a 2- or a 4-type corrective wave.  After the corrective wave comes an IMPULSE wave—wheeeeeee!!! smile

    [ Edited: 19 May 2012 11:06 PM by lovemyipad ]      
  • Posted: 19 May 2012 10:58 PM #164

    long stock and shorting weeklies around it to mitigate losses - right now they are extremely helpful because the premium gets sucked out of the them over night but the stock is still taking a bit of beating nonetheless.  Hopefully I will be able to cover my short calls when we reverse.  Also trying to take long call side bet to catch the move up but holding off till we are on our way.  I can’t call a bottom and am perfectly fine catching it along the way up. So be it.

    [ Edited: 19 May 2012 11:05 PM by lovemyipad ]

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    Posted: 19 May 2012 11:04 PM #165

    Here’s my homework: (Mace, please see question at bottom of post.)


    Corey Rosenbloom’s “EW Cheat Sheet”:

    AAPL DAILY CHART:


    EDIT: Mace, the above-labelled A,B,C could also possibly be a,b,c of A, right?  I ask because I wouldn’t be suprised to see consolidation similar to last summer (especially given weekly MACD-h), which makes me suspect a “flat” or “expanded flat” corrective wave between now and JUL’12.  I *think* the length of the downwave after the next upwave will determine whether the upcoming legs are B,C of a Wave 4 (or 2), or i,ii of a Wave 5 (or 3).  Did that make any sense whatsoever???  (Please, no one ask me to explain until I understand it better myself!)

    [ Edited: 20 May 2012 03:07 PM by lovemyipad ]