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Elliott Wave Analysis
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...but holding off till we are on our way. I can’t call a bottom and am perfectly fine catching it along the way up. So be it.
Sounds smart to me.
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Let’s assume 516.22 for sh*ts and giggles….which wave comes next?
This would align quite neatly with Squarepants Quarterly Multiple Theory:
One has to look at historical corrections to see we still have $50 points to go. It is very simple. You look at the lowest p/e of last quarter and multiply it by our eps. at 12.58x41=515. Once we drop below 537 get ready for 500.
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Mace is on Diablo hiatus.
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Mace, Mace, Mace!
Wave i = $354.24 to $426.70
Wave ii = $426.70 to $363.32
Wave iii = $363.32 to $644.00
Wave iv = $644.00 to ($528.66 to $516.22), approx. 38.2% length of iii *Wave iv.a = $644.00 to $555.00, length = 89.00
Wave iv.b = $555.00 to $618.00, length = 63.00
Wave iv.c = $618.00 to $528.66, length = 89.34 ** No confirmation iv.c is complete—could still descend to $516.22—BUT wouldn’t the numbers be cool if we WERE done…then length of a = length of c, all nice and measured-move-like.
Also, “Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 61.8% of length of wave 3, norm is 38.2%.” We’re in that ballpark.
Mace, Mace, Mace! Pretty numbers! Pretty numbers! :D
Wave i = $354.24 to $426.70
Wave ii = $426.70 to $363.32
Wave iii = $363.32 to $644.00
Wave iv = $644.00 to $528.66, approx. 38.2% length of iiiWave iv.a = $644.00 to $555.00, length = 89.00
Wave iv.b = $555.00 to $618.00, length = 63.00
Wave iv.c = $618.00 to $528.66, length = 89.34 ** length of a = length of c, all nice and measured-move-like.
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So now, the questions before us, which likely can’t be answered until we assess the strength of this up move: (Please don’t ask me to explain until I get a better understanding from Mace! I am only a grasshopper!)1) Did Wave iv complete? (In which case we’ve started impulse Wave v.1)
2) Or was the observed abc retracement from “644 to 528” only Wave iv.a? (In which case we’ve started Wave iv.b)Weekly MACD-h makes me lean toward scenario #2.
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Henry at SI reponds to a question on Apple’s movements in Elliott Wave theory.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readreplies.aspx?subjectid=51095&nonstock=False&msgid=28168759
Maybe Mace or Lovey can explain what Henry is saying, as regards the more detailed discussions that have taken place here.
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AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before
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Henry at SI reponds to a question on Apple’s movements in Elliott Wave theory.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readreplies.aspx?subjectid=51095&nonstock=False&msgid=28168759
Maybe Mace or Lovey can explain what Henry is saying, as regards the more detailed discussions that have taken place here.
Thanks, Red! Henry’s latter hypothesis is precisely the query I posed to Mace in my last post. We shall see when Mace resurfaces from Diablo.
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Please, he should be long done with Diablo 3 by now.
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Thanks, Steve. -
Mace, where are you? What are you busy doing?
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Mace, come out come out wherever you are. We need some more voodoo TA.
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Mace, are you avoiding your AFB buddies for bearish reasons?
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I miss Mace. :(
Today’s low of 548.50 is the 61.8% retracement of the move from 528 to 581.50 (machines do seem to like precision), the “norm” for a Wave 2.
Here’s my latest EW-in-progress:
Mace is the only one who would know if this makes any sense:Wave v.i.1 from 528.66 to 581.50, length = 52.84
Wave v.i.2 from 581.50 to 548.50, length = 33.00 ~ .618 of v.i.1Ummm…if v.i.2 is complete, projections for v.i.3 could be….uhhhh…
548.50 + length of (v.i.1 * 1.618) = 548.50 + 85.50 = 634
634. Final answer. Maybe. Crud. I miss Mace. :(
[ Edited: 04 June 2012 07:43 PM by lovemyipad ] -
This count is similar to Mace’s and mine:
Note: he’s showing both the bullish and the bearish forecasts, two mutually exclusive either/or outcomes, bullish (top right) OR bearish (bottom right). And YES, we can all enumerate the plethora of fundamental reasons to support UP!
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I’m becoming scared because I almost understood that chart…..
Who says osmosis does not work?
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AAPL: to boldly go where no stock has gone before
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LOL, Red! I know *exactly* what you mean!!!
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My latest EW-in-progress:
P.S. I still miss Mace. :(
[ Edited: 23 June 2012 11:19 PM by lovemyipad ]
